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Although very significant and applicable, there have been no formal justifications for the use of Monte‐Carlo models and Markov chains in evaluating hospital admission decisions or concrete data supporting their use. For these reasons, this research was designed to provide a deeper understanding of these models. The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of a computerized Monte‐Carlo simulation of admission decisions under the constraints of emergency departments.

The authors construct a simple decision tree using the expected utility method to represent the complex admission decision process terms of quality adjusted life years (QALY) then show the advantages of using a Monte‐Carlo simulation in evaluating admission decisions in a cohort simulation, using a decision tree and a Markov chain.

After showing that the Monte‐Carlo simulation outperforms an expected utility method without a simulation, the authors develop a decision tree with such a model. real cohort simulation data are used to demonstrate that the integration of a Monte‐Carlo simulation shows which patients should be admitted.

This paper may encourage researchers to use Monte‐Carlo simulation in evaluating admission decision implications. The authors also propose applying the model when using a computer simulation that deals with various CVD symptoms in clinical cohorts.

Aside from demonstrating the value of a Monte‐Carlo simulation as a powerful analysis tool, the paper's findings may prompt researchers to conduct a decision analysis with a Monte‐Carlo simulation in the healthcare environment.

Evaluating warfighter lethality is a critical aspect of military performance. Raw metrics such as marksmanship speed and accuracy can provide some insight, yet interpreting subtle differences can be challenging. For example, is a speed difference of 300 milliseconds more important than a 10% accuracy difference on the same drill? Marksmanship evaluations must have objective methods to differentiate between critical factors while maintaining a holistic view of human performance.

Monte Carlo simulations are one method to circumvent speed/accuracy trade-offs within marksmanship evaluations. They can accommodate both speed and accuracy implications simultaneously without needing to hold one constant for the sake of the other. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can incorporate variability as a key element of performance. This approach thus allows analysts to determine consistency of performance expectations when projecting future outcomes.

The review divides outcomes into both theoretical overview and practical implication sections. Each aspect of the Monte Carlo simulation can be addressed separately, reviewed and then incorporated as a potential component of small arms combat modeling. This application allows for new human performance practitioners to more quickly adopt the method for different applications.

Performance implications are often presented as inferential statistics. By using the Monte Carlo simulations, practitioners can present outcomes in terms of lethality. This method should help convey the impact of any marksmanship evaluation to senior leadership better than current inferential statistics, such as effect size measures.

Marksmanship data is a staple of military and law enforcement evaluations. This ubiquitous nature creates a critical need to use all relevant information and to convey outcomes in a meaningful way for the end users. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how simple simulation techniques can improve interpretations of marksmanship data.

This study uses three simulations to demonstrate the advantages of small arms combat modeling, including (1) the benefits of incorporating a Markov Chain into Monte Carlo shooting simulations; (2) how small arms combat modeling is superior to point-based evaluations; and (3) why continuous-time chains better capture performance than discrete-time chains.

The proposed method reduces ambiguity in low-accuracy scenarios while also incorporating a more holistic view of performance as outcomes simultaneously incorporate speed and accuracy rather than holding one constant.

This process determines the probability of winning an engagement against a given opponent while circumventing arbitrary discussions of speed and accuracy trade-offs. Someone wins 70% of combat engagements against a given opponent rather than scoring 15 more points. Moreover, risk exposure is quantified by determining the likely casualties suffered to achieve victory. This combination makes the practical consequences of human performance differences tangible to the end users. Taken together, this approach advances the operations research analyses of squad-level combat engagements.

For more than a century, marksmanship evaluations have used point-based systems to classify shooters. However, these scoring methods were developed for competitive integrity rather than lethality as points do not adequately capture combat capabilities. The proposed method thus represents a major shift in the marksmanship scoring paradigm.

One of the crucial issues in the contemporary finance is the prediction of the volatility of financial assets. In this paper, the authors are interested in modelling the stochastic volatility of the MAD/EURO and MAD/USD exchange rates.

For this purpose, the authors have adopted Bayesian approach based on the MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) algorithm which permits to reproduce the main stylized empirical facts of the assets studied. The data used in this study are the daily historical series of MAD/EURO and MAD/USD exchange rates covering the period from February 2, 2000, to March 3, 2017, which represent 4,456 observations.

By the aid of this approach, the authors were able to estimate all the random parameters of the stochastic volatility model which permit the prediction of the future exchange rates. The authors also have simulated the histograms, the posterior densities as well as the cumulative averages of the model parameters. The predictive efficiency of the stochastic volatility model for Morocco is capable to facilitate the management of the exchange rate in more flexible exchange regime to ensure better targeting of monetary and exchange policies.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the novelty of the paper lies in the production of a tool for predicting the evolution of the Moroccan exchange rate and also the design of a tool for the monetary authorities who are today in a proactive conception of management of the rate of exchange. Cyclical policies such as monetary policy and exchange rate policy will introduce this type of modelling into the decision-making process to achieve a better stabilization of the macroeconomic and financial framework.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: an approach is proposed to determine the optimum replacement time for shovel teeth; and a risk-quantification approached is developed to derive a confidence interval for replacement time.

The risk-quantification approach is based on a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and Markov chain. Monte Carlo simulation whereby the wear of shovel teeth is probabilistically monitored over time is used.

Results show that a proper replacement strategy has potential to increase operation efficiency and the uncertainties associated with this strategy can be managed.

The failure time distribution of a tooth is assumed to remain “identically distributed and independent.” Planned tooth replacements are always done when the shovel is not in operation (e.g. between a shift change).

The proposed approach can be effectively used to determine a replacement strategy, along with the level of confidence level, for preventive maintenance planning.

The originality of the paper rests on developing a novel approach to monitor wear on mining shovels probabilistically. Uncertainty associated with production targets is quantified.

This paper aims to focus on developing a baseline model for time overrun.

Information on 321 completed construction projects used to assess the predictive performance of two statistical techniques, namely, multiple regression and the Bayesian approach.

The eventual results from the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo model were observed to improve the predictive ability of the model compared with multiple linear regression. Besides the unique nuances peculiar with projects executed, the scope factors initial duration, gross floor area and number of storeys have been observed to be stable predictors of time overrun.

This current model contributes to improving the reliability of predicting time overruns.

The application of statistical inversion theory provides a powerful approach for solving estimation problems including the ability for uncertainty quantification (UQ) by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and Monte Carlo integration. This paper aims to analyze the application of a state reduction technique within different MCMC techniques to improve the computational efficiency and the tuning process of these algorithms.

A reduced state representation is constructed from a general prior distribution. For sampling the Metropolis Hastings (MH) Algorithm and the Gibbs sampler are used. Efficient proposal generation techniques and techniques for conditional sampling are proposed and evaluated for an exemplary inverse problem.

For the MH-algorithm, high acceptance rates can be obtained with a simple proposal kernel. For the Gibbs sampler, an efficient technique for conditional sampling was found. The state reduction scheme stabilizes the ill-posed inverse problem, allowing a solution without a dedicated prior distribution. The state reduction is suitable to represent general material distributions.

The state reduction scheme and the MCMC techniques can be applied in different imaging problems. The stabilizing nature of the state reduction improves the solution of ill-posed problems. The tuning of the MCMC methods is simplified.

The paper presents a method to improve the solution process of inverse problems within the Bayesian framework. The stabilization of the inverse problem due to the state reduction improves the solution. The approach simplifies the tuning of MCMC methods.

This paper aims to present development and application of the Bayesian inverse approach for retrieving parameters of non-linear diffusion coefficient based on the integral information.

The Bayes formula was used to construct posterior distribution of the unknown parameters of non-linear diffusion coefficient. The resulting aposteriori distribution of sought parameters was integrated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to obtain expected values of estimated diffusivity parameters as well as their confidence intervals. Unsteady non-linear diffusion equation was discretised with the Global Radial Basis Function Collocation method and solved in time using Crank–Nicholson technique.

A number of manufactured analytical solutions of the non-linear diffusion problem was used to verify accuracy of the developed inverse approach. Reasonably good agreement, even for highly correlated parameters, was obtained. Therefore, the technique was used to compute concentration dependent diffusion coefficient of water in paper.

An original inverse technique, which couples efficiently meshless solution of the diffusion problem with the Bayesian inverse methodology, is presented in the paper. This methodology was extensively verified and applied to the real-life problem.

The purpose of this paper is to establish a cheap but accurate approximation of the forward map in electrical capacitance tomography in order to approach robust real‐time inversion in the framework of Bayesian statistics based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling.

Existing formulations and methods to reduce the order of the forward model with focus on electrical tomography are reviewed and compared. In this work, the problem of fast and robust estimation of shape and position of non‐conducting inclusions in an otherwise uniform background is considered. The boundary of the inclusion is represented implicitly using an appropriate interpolation strategy based on radial basis functions. The inverse problem is formulated as Bayesian inference, with MCMC sampling used to efficiently explore the posterior distribution. An affine approximation to the forward map built over the state space is introduced to significantly reduce the reconstruction time, while maintaining spatial accuracy. It is shown that the proposed approximation is unbiased and the variance of the introduced additional model error is even smaller than the measurement error of the tomography instrumentation. Numerical examples are presented, avoiding all inverse crimes.

Provides a consistent formulation of the affine approximation with application to imaging of binary mixtures in electrical tomography using MCMC sampling with Metropolis‐Hastings‐Green dynamics.

The proposed cheap approximation indicates that accurate real‐time inversion of capacitance data using statistical inversion is possible.

The proposed approach demonstrates that a tolerably small increase in posterior uncertainty of relevant parameters, e.g. inclusion area and contour shape, is traded for a huge reduction in computing time without introducing bias in estimates. Furthermore, the proposed framework – approximated forward map combined with statistical inversion – can be applied to all kinds of soft‐field tomography problems.

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the resistance and inductor in the RL electrical circuit when these are unavailable or missing data that it is a concern in electrical engineering. The input voltage is assumed to be corrupted by the noise and the current is observed at discrete time points.

The authors propose a computationally efficient framework for parameters estimation using least square estimator and Bayesian Monte Carlo scheme.

The explicit formulas for least square estimator are derived and the strong consistency of resistance estimator is verified when inductor is a known parameter, then Bayesian estimation of parameters governed by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The applicability of the results is demonstrated by using numerical examples. Several numerical results and figures are presented via Matlab and R programming to illustrate the performance of the estimators.

The paper can be used in various types of electrical engineering real time projects. The projects include electrical circuits, electrical machines theory and drives, especially when the parameters are uncertain that it is a worry in electrical engineering.

To the author's best knowledge, least square and Bayesian estimation of resistance and inductor have not been studied before. The proposed model is nonlinear with respect to inductor (L); therefore the present work has fundamental difference in comparison with the similar models.