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The study assess the selection ability and market timing skills of mutual fund and unit trust managers in Ghana.

The study uses an improved survivorship bias-free dataset of yearly after-fee returns of all mutual funds and unit trusts operating in Ghana from January 2011 to December 2019, cumulating in nine years of quantitative fund data. The authors assess Mutual funds and Unit trusts that ever existed, “alive” or “dead,” over the sample period in the study. The authors construct factor loadings to enable the application of multifactor models in the analysis. The authors apply the unconditional versions of the Jensen alpha, Fama-French three-factor, and Carhart four-factor models to determine the selection ability and market timing skills of 32 mutual funds and 17 unit trusts. The authors deploy HAC-consistent robust standard errors to the OLS estimations to subdue the effect of heterogeneity and autocorrelation.

The results indicate that, on average, mutual funds and unit trust managers possess market timing skills but no selection ability. When the results are decomposed into fund types, fixed-income and balanced mutual fund managers possess selection ability and market timing skills.

To the authors' best knowledge, this study is the earliest to examine the selection ability and market timing skills of both mutual fund and unit trust managers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is also the earliest to construct factor loadings for the Ghana stock market.

This study aims to examine whether mutual funds can earn daily alpha and time daily market return.

Based on the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) model and the Henriksson and Merton (1981) model, the author tests the daily market-timing ability of actual mutual funds and bootstrapped mutual funds.

The author finds that daily alpha and daily market-timing ability can come from pure luck. In addition, the relation between fund alpha and market-timing ability is at best minimal.

Using bootstrapped funds as the benchmark, this study shows that daily fund market is overall efficient.

The purpose of this paper is to study performance and market timing ability of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs).

The authors use classical regression‐based framework and their multi‐index, multifactor, and conditional extensions to jointly detect asset selectivity and market timing ability of equity REITs and their subcategories. These results are then validated by a nonparametric test.

It is found that equity REITs in aggregate have some housing market timing ability. Various equity REIT subcategories perform differently: office REITs can discover underpriced properties, while retail, industrial, and office REITs have poor timing ability. Nonparametric tests confirm that equity REITs do not have ability to predict real estate market movements.

Research in REIT performance evaluation is still limited to the asset selectivity aspect. This paper intends to fill this gap by providing empirical evidence of market timing ability of equity REITs using an array of parametric and nonparametric methods.

The purpose of this paper is to find whether Chinese equity funds outperform the market and do Chinese fund managers possess positive market timing ability. This study also aims to investigate whether well-performing (worst) funds of last year continue to perform well (worst) in the following year.

Capital Asset Pricing Model and Carhart four-factor model are used for performance analysis, whereas for analyzing market timing ability, the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models are applied. To investigate persistence in the performance of Chinese equity funds, all equity funds are divided, on the basis of performance in the past 12 months, into three equally weighted groups (high, middle and low) and then observed for next 12 months. After that, groups are again rebalanced according to their performance. This study uses a panel regression model for analysis.

Chinese equity funds are successful in providing higher than market returns, and fund managers possess positive market timing ability. The authors find that Chinese equity funds do not show persistence in performance as witnessed in developed markets. Well-performing funds (worst funds) of last year do not continue to provide higher (lower) return in the following year. Moreover, the authors detect positive relationship of fund size, age and expense ratio with the fund’s performance. Overall results suggest that emerging market equity funds show better performance than that of developed markets.

Investors are better off if they invest in equity funds instead of index funds, as results illustrate that equity funds outperformed the market. Further, the strategy of buying well-performing funds of last year and selling poorly performing funds of last year does not look very attractive in China. This study helps investors to understand the Chinese managed funds industry, and such an understanding is also helpful for fund managers and asset management companies who use performance information in marketing strategies.

This is the first study to investigate the performance persistence in Chinese equity funds and also contributes to the literature about the performance and market timing ability of equity funds. The study takes the sample of 520 equity funds for the period from 2004 to 2014, which includes a period of financial crisis of 2008.

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Portuguese fund managers by examining the selectivity and market timing skills of 51 Portuguese mutual funds from June 2002 to March 2012.

The authors assess empirically the performance of a sample of funds by applying the unconditional and conditional models of Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981).

The results suggest that, overall, the Portuguese mutual funds do not possess selectivity or timing skills. However, regardless of the model used, the domestic equity funds exhibit a statistically significant market timing ability. Furthermore, the domestic and North American equity funds display positive selectivity during bull markets and timing skills during bear markets. Additionally, there is some evidence that older funds are better stock pickers than younger funds.

To address some of the limitations of this study, the authors suggest for further research correcting the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) model for the convexity cost of replicating Merton’s (1981) option approach. Additionally, for further research, we suggest using a bigger sample, higher frequency data, as such data may lead to higher frequency of timing ability as proposed by Bollen and Busse (2001). To overcome some of the limitations of traditional models, future research may consider using Jiang’s (2003) nonparametric test, as it is not affected by manager’s risk aversion, or Ferson and Khang (2002) conditional performance evaluation using portfolios holdings.

The authors contribute to the current literature by extending the period of study to 10 years in comparison to previous studies; extending the sample of funds to 51; addressing, for the first time in this context, the importance of public information on funds’ performance, through the comparison of unconditional and conditional models of Treynor and Mazuy’s (1966) and Henriksson and Merton’s (1981); and, for the first time in the Portuguese context, analysing the relationship between funds’ size, age and market cycles and selectivity and market timing skills.

The paper seeks to examine whether selectivity and timing performance of fund manager is sensitive to the choice of market benchmarks. The two benchmarks used are the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the Exchange Main Board All‐Share (EMAS) Index.

The paper seeks to employed Jensen's model to estimate the overall fund performance and Henriksson and Merton's model to separate the fund manager's investment performance into the selectivity and market‐timing components.

The findings indicate that, on average, the funds display negative overall performance with either the KLCI or the EMAS Index. In addition, there is little variation in the manager's market‐timing and selectivity performance across alternative market benchmarks. It is also reported that a manager's poor timing ability contributes significantly to the fund's negative overall performance.

The paper employed just two market benchmarks. Inclusion of more market benchmarks in future research may provide further support for the existing findings.

Regardless of the market benchmarks used, the results imply that fund managers should seriously reassess their market timing efforts, given that their predictions are very often in the wrong direction than in the right direction. Such findings suggest that no economic benefit accrues to the average fund manager involved in market‐timing activities.

The paper provides first evidence on the sensitivity of a fund manager's separate investment components (timing and selectivity) to different specification of the market benchmarks.

This paper seeks to review and extend previous research on the performance of Islamic mutual funds (IMFs) by evaluating the relative performance of IMFs and conventional funds during the global economic crisis in the context of the Saudi Arabian capital market.

This paper compares the market timing and stock selection abilities of 159 mutual funds listed on the Saudi Arabian stock market from 2007 to 2011 by using the CAPM regression and Treynor and Mazuy models. The paper addresses the benchmark problem from which most prior IMFs studies suffered by using appropriate regional benchmarks. As a robustness check, coefficients of IMFs and conventional funds are compared by using the differences in mean and standard deviation analysis obtained from the standard CAPM model on individual funds.

The empirical results show evidence of better performance of IMFs relative to conventional funds during periods of economic crisis. In addition, although there is no evidence of relative superiority in market timing ability, managers of IMFs appear to have better stock selection ability during times of economic crisis.

The combination of superior stock selection ability of IMFs and the negative market timing ability of conventional funds suggest that IMFs offer better hedging opportunities for investors during periods of economic downturn.

The findings of this paper suggest that IMFs can provide hedging benefits during adverse economic conditions – an issue of great importance due to the current and forecast insecurity surrounding the global capital markets. By holding a portion of their investment portfolio in IMFs, investors can experience a higher degree of confidence in terms of investment security, growth and returns. Similarly, managers of conventional funds can improve risk adjusted performance by following similar screening criteria as IMFs during economic slowdowns.

This paper represents the first comprehensive study on the comparative performance of Islamic and conventional mutual funds during the current financial crisis by including all fund managers listed on the Saudi Arabian stock market. The paper extends the knowledge of the emerging literature of Islamic finance and mutual fund performance.

This paper looks at one relatively less‐visited issue in market timing: switching investments on common stocks between different stock markets, namely, “intermarket timing”. By employing the stock price data for the period of 1992‐2002 from a developed market, Hong Kong, and two emerging markets, Shanghai and Shenzhen, this paper examines potential gains and the required predictive accuracy for intermarket timing between Hong Kong and Shanghai, and between Hong Kong and Shenzhen from Hong Kong investors’ perspective. Potential gains could be obtained from such timing strategy, and the non‐high minimum forecasting ability required for successful timing is fairly attainable for Hong Kong investors, even after taking into account the assumed transaction costs.

Market timing offers an attractive alternative to buying‐and‐holding assets if the investors can predict market movements accurately. The objective of this paper is to test the profitability of market timing between two national equity markets and to determine the required level of predictive accuracy for such a venture to pay off. Hong Kong and Singapore stock markets are chosen due to the likeliness for investors to switch investments between these two markets. Three different frequencies of portfolio revision together with three levels of transaction costs are employed in the test. The results reveal that portfolios, that are revised every quarter, display the most likelihood of achieving profits greater than that of a buy‐and‐hold strategy. However, the required level of predictive accuracy may still be beyond the reach of most of the investors.

This paper aims to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market timing skills of Islamic equity funds in Asia, Europe and North America.

The authors employed a two-step process. First, a Granger causality test is applied to test the bivariate relationship between Islamic fund indices and stock market ones by highlighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the methodology of Treynor and Mazuy (1966) is deployed to account for the market timing abilities skills of Islamic fund managers during the pandemic period.

The investigation revealed mixed results. The European Islamic funds were positively impacted by the stock market as well as by the COVID-19 pandemic context. Additionally, compared to their Asian and North American peers, only European Islamic fund managers have the ability to time the market during the health crisis period.

Despite its contribution to the Islamic finance literature, this study has some flaws. Indeed, the selected sample of three regions, namely Asia, Europe and North America, precludes extrapolating these conclusions. Other regions should be investigated to further our understanding of Islamic equity funds. Furthermore, due to data availability and accessibility, the study period was limited to a specific time of the COVID-19 pandemic. This shortcoming can be addressed through a multiwave investigation, especially since each region was exposed differently to the pandemic.

The paper provides scholars, portfolio managers and investors with insights regarding the investment dilemma during the COVID-19 pandemic period, especially for those wishing to hedge their pandemic risk exposure and/or diversify their portfolios. Equally, the depiction of potential market timing abilities of Islamic fund managers across the three regions would serve as a guide to identifying the most suitable internationally focused investment strategy.

The paper provides scholars, portfolio managers and investors with insights regarding the investment dilemma during the COVID-19 pandemic period, especially for those wishing to hedge their pandemic risk exposure and/or diversify their portfolios. Equally, the depiction of potential market timing abilities of Islamic funds managers across the three regions would serve as a guide to identify the most suitable internationally focused investment strategy.

The originality of this investigation is that it is the first to examine Islamic equity fund managers and their skills to time the stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic period in Asia, Europe and North America. The current paper extends the Islamic finance literature.