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The aim of this chapter is to provide the readers with a brief background to the characteristics of tourism and a synoptic presentation of the main trends in tourism markets and challenges that tourism businesses should deal with.

A literature review was conducted on the relevant trends that can affect the management and marketing of tourism businesses. Micro case studies were also presented as practical examples of how tourism businesses have adapted to trends.

This chapter highlights the specific characteristics of the tourism industry, as well as the trends in the market/business environment. Tourism businesses need to remain aware of trends and find solutions to adapt their services and activities to take advantage of them.

This chapter is explorative in nature because it has made used of extant literature.

Tourism entrepreneurs are encouraged to stay abreast of changes in the business environment. Some of the examples provided may only be applicable in the short run but other examples have long-term impact. Valuable solutions are provided for consideration.

This chapter analyses several trends affecting the tourism industry from management and marketing perspectives. This analysis gives a better understanding of how these trends specifically affect tourism. This chapter highlights the importance of monitoring the trends and their evolution in the various markets.

The learning outcomes of the study are to analyze the launch of a new business line for Trend at the commercial and market levels; identify the potential of the green consumer in Peruvian emerging market; and apply strategic tools to analyze the viability of launching a new business line in a new market.

José Luis Galindo planned to launch a new line of toilets in the Peruvian market called EcoTrend, based on the analysis of the responsible consumption trend and the presence of a new green consumer. Therefore, he carried out a series of studies and estimates to define the feasibility of the value proposition of his ecological toilet. However, Galindo doubted if these studies and estimates were enough to carry out the launch and commercial success of the EcoTrend line. Galindo, founder and current general manager of a company called Cerámica Industrial Trend S.A.C, is broadly knowledgeable about the construction sector in Peru and has more than 30 years of work experience in the ceramic bathroom fixtures industry. Throughout his professional career, Galindo has managed three of the leading bathroom fixture companies in Peru. However, it was when he started Trend, a company focusing specifically on the manufacture of toilets, that his dream of becoming an entrepreneur came true. Trend is focused on its one-piece toilet line. These toilets are characterized by their high-quality workmanship, which is achieved through the efficient and distinctive production process of Trend’s workforce. The workforce stays on its toes due to constant, thorough training, a key to Trend’s market competitiveness. In addition, the new EcoTrend line sowed in Galindo uncertainty in the commercial viability because the product was new in the market and was going to bring a great challenge.

Depending on the scope of the course, different teaching objectives could be oriented toward entrepreneurship, management sciences, strategy and green marketing. The case can be used to teach higher level undergraduate marketing and management courses.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 8: Marketing.

This work aims at designing an indicator for detecting and forecasting price volatility and speculative bubbles in three markets dealing with agricultural and soft commodities, i.e. Intercontinental Exchange Futures market Europe, (IFEU), Intercontinental Exchange Futures market United States (IFUS) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This indicator, designed as a demand/supply odds ratio, intends to overcome the subjectivity limits embedded in sentiment indexes as the Bull and Bears ratio by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Data evidence allows for the parameter estimation of a Jacobi diffusion process that models the demand share and leads the forecast of speculative bubbles and realised volatility. Validation of outcomes is obtained through the dynamic regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) error. Results are discussed in comparison with those from the traditional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The database is retrieved from Thomson Reuters DataStream (nearby futures daily frequency).

The empirical analysis shows that the indicator succeeds in capturing the trend of the observed volatility in the future at medium and long-time horizons. A comparison of simulations results with those obtained with the traditional GARCH models, usually adopted in forecasting the volatility trend, confirms that the indicator is able to replicate the trend also providing turning points, i.e. additional information completely neglected by the GARCH analysis.

The authors' commodity demand as discrete-time process is capable of replicating the observed trend in a continuous-time framework, as well as turning points. This process is suited for estimating behavioural parameters of the agents, i.e. long-term mean, speed of mean reversion and herding behaviour. These parameters are used in the forecast of speculative bubbles and realised volatility.

There is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end.

The paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market.

When the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period.

Evidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors.

There is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows.

Unlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.