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1 – 10 of over 7000A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only…
Abstract
Purpose
A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.
Findings
The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.
Originality/value
In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.
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Jérôme Boutang and Michel De Lara
In a modern world increasingly perceived as uncertain, the mere purchase of a household cleaning product, or a seemingly harmless bottle of milk, conveys interrogations about…
Abstract
Purpose
In a modern world increasingly perceived as uncertain, the mere purchase of a household cleaning product, or a seemingly harmless bottle of milk, conveys interrogations about potential hazards, from environmental to health impacts. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest that risk could be considered as one of the major dimensions of choice for a wide range of concerns and markets, alongside aspiration/satisfaction, and tackled efficiently by mobilizing the recent findings of cognitive sciences, neurosciences and evolutionary psychology. It is felt that consumer research could benefit more widely from psychological and evolutionary-grounded risk theories.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, some 50 years of marketing management literature, as well as risk-specialized literature, was examined in an attempt to get a grasp of how risk is handled by consumer sciences and of whether they make some use of the most recent academic works on mental biases, non-mainstream decision-making processes or evolutionary roots of behavior. We then tested and formulated several hypotheses regarding risk profiles and preferences in the sector of insurance, by participating in an Axa Research Fund–Paris School of Economics research project.
Findings
It is suggested that consumer profiles could be enriched by risk-taking attitudes, that risk could be part of the “reason why” of brand positioning, and that brand, as well as public policy communication, could benefit from a targeted use of risk perception biases.
Originality/value
This paper proposes to apply evolutionary-based psychological concepts to build perceptual maps describing people and consumers on both aspiration and risk attitude axis, and to design communication tools according to psychological research on message framing and biases. Such an approach mobilizes not only the recent findings of cognitive sciences and neurosciences but also the understanding of the roots of risk attitudes and perception. Those maps and framing could probably be applied to many sectors, markets and public issues, from commodities to personal products and services (food, luxury goods, electronics, financial products, tourism, design or insurance).
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In 2022, US financial regulators proposed to mandate a single central clearing mechanism for treasury bonds and repo transactions to stabilize financial markets. The systemic risks…
Abstract
In 2022, US financial regulators proposed to mandate a single central clearing mechanism for treasury bonds and repo transactions to stabilize financial markets. The systemic risks inherent in repo markets were first highlighted by the global financial crisis and, as a response, global financial authorities such as the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have advocated for the introduction of a central counterparty (CCP). This study examines the structural characteristics of Korean repo markets and proposes the introduction of CCPs as a way to mitigate systemic risk. To this end, the author analyzes the structural differences between US and European repo markets and estimates the potential consequences of introducing CCP clearing in local repo markets. In general, CCPs offer two benefits: they can reduce required capital through netting in multilateral transactions, and they can mitigate the effects of risk transfer by isolating counterparty risk during periods of turbulence. In Korea, the latter effect is expected to play a pivotal role in mitigating potential risks.
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Idris A. Adediran, Raymond Swaray, Aminat O. Orekoya and Balikis A. Kabir
This study aims to examine the ability of clean energy stocks to provide cover for investors against market risks related to climate change and disturbances in the oil market.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the ability of clean energy stocks to provide cover for investors against market risks related to climate change and disturbances in the oil market.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the feasible quasi generalized least squares technique to estimate a predictive model based on Westerlund and Narayan’s (2015) approach to evaluating the hedging effectiveness of clean energy stocks. The out-of-sample forecast evaluations of the oil risk-based and climate risk-based clean energy predictive models are explored using Clark and West’s model (2007) and a modified Diebold & Mariano forecast evaluation test for nested and non-nested models, respectively.
Findings
The study finds ample evidence that clean energy stocks may hedge against oil market risks. This result is robust to alternative measures of oil risk and holds when applied to data from the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the hedging effectiveness of clean energy against climate risks is limited to 4 of the 6 clean energy indices and restricted to climate risk measured with climate policy uncertainty.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by providing extensive analysis of hedging effectiveness of several clean energy indices (global, the United States (US), Europe and Asia) and sectoral clean energy indices (solar and wind) against oil market and climate risks using various measures of oil risk (WTI (West Texas intermediate) and Brent volatility) and climate risk (climate policy uncertainty and energy and environmental regulation) as predictors. It also conducts forecast evaluations of the clean energy predictive models for nested and non-nested models.
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Jaewon Choi and Jieun Lee
The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk…
Abstract
The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, the authors perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. The results show that the measures perform well over the study’s sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. The authors also provide the recent readings of their measures at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. Although the measures indicate systemic risk is not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998, there is an increasing trend in commonality and connectedness since 2017. Samsung and SK exhibit increasing degrees of commonality and connectedness, perhaps because of their heavy dependence on a few major member firms. Commonality in the finance industry has not subsided since the financial crisis, suggesting that systemic risk is still a concern in the banking sector.
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Wassim Ben Ayed and Rim Ben Hassen
This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches for determining the Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR) for Islamic stock markets during the…
Abstract
Purpose
This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches for determining the Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR) for Islamic stock markets during the pandemic health crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
This research evaluates the performance of numerous VaR models for computing the MCR for market risk in compliance with the Basel II and Basel II.5 guidelines for ten Islamic indices. Five models were applied—namely the RiskMetrics, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, denoted (GARCH), fractional integrated GARCH, denoted (FIGARCH), and SPLINE-GARCH approaches—under three innovations (normal (N), Student (St) and skewed-Student (Sk-t) and the extreme value theory (EVT).
Findings
The main findings of this empirical study reveal that (1) extreme value theory performs better for most indices during the market crisis and (2) VaR models under a normal distribution provide quite poor performance than models with fat-tailed innovations in terms of risk estimation.
Research limitations/implications
Since the world is now undergoing the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study will not be able to assess performance of VaR models during the fourth wave of COVID-19.
Practical implications
The results suggest that the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) should enhance market discipline mechanisms, while central banks and national authorities should harmonize their regulatory frameworks in line with Basel/IFSB reform agenda.
Originality/value
Previous studies focused on evaluating market risk models using non-Islamic indexes. However, this research uses the Islamic indexes to analyze the VaR forecasting models. Besides, they tested the accuracy of VaR models based on traditional GARCH models, whereas the authors introduce the Spline GARCH developed by Engle and Rangel (2008). Finally, most studies have focus on the period of 2007–2008 financial crisis, while the authors investigate the issue of market risk quantification for several Islamic market equity during the sanitary crisis of COVID-19.
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This study aims to define the parameters of the reward-risk principle in Islamic finance as established in the literature and discuss propositions that are presented on how such a…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to define the parameters of the reward-risk principle in Islamic finance as established in the literature and discuss propositions that are presented on how such a principle is to be applied to Islamic banking products.
Design/methodology/approach
A descriptive approach is used to explore the normative parameters and criticisms of the application of reward-risk in Islamic finance.
Findings
The study finds that the principle of reward-risk is embodied in the multi-component concept of ʿiwaḍ (counter value) which must be evident in market transactions that involve commercial exchanges. The components include risk, costs, effort, value-adding and capital, all of which apply uniquely to different contractual forms of financing.
Research limitations/implications
The study uses academic literature and industry documents along with modest contact with prominent practitioners who provided general feedback on prevalent Islamic finance industry practices.
Practical implications
This study exposits the variety of approaches in applying the reward-risk principle and sheds light on the primary elements of the principle which will facilitate its greater consideration by the Islamic finance industry.
Originality/value
This study is a meaningful attempt at conveniently summing up and applying the parameters that are considered when discussing the scope of the reward-risk principle in Islamic finance.
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Augustine Tarkom and Xinhui Huang
Recognizing the severity of COVID-19 on the US economy, the authors investigate the behavior of US-listed firms towards leverage speed of adjustment (SOA) during the pandemic…
Abstract
Purpose
Recognizing the severity of COVID-19 on the US economy, the authors investigate the behavior of US-listed firms towards leverage speed of adjustment (SOA) during the pandemic. While prior evidence (based on an international study) shows that firm leverage increased during the pandemic leading to a higher SOA toward leverage ratios, leverage for US firms during the same period reduced drastically. Yet there is a dearth of empirical studies on the behavior of US-listed firms' SOA during the pandemic. The authors fill this void.
Design/methodology/approach
The study includes US-listed non-financial and non-utility firms for the period 2015Q1-2021Q4, covering a total sample of 45,213 firm-quarter observations. The authors’ empirical strategy is based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) and firm-fixed effect methodology, controlling for firm- and quarter-fixed effects.
Findings
Three main findings are established: (1) while the SOA toward book target increased during the pandemic, SOA toward market target increased significantly only for less valued and cash-constrained firms; (2) firms in states most impacted by the pandemic adjusted faster towards target ratio; and (3) while the emergence of the pandemic and the overall firm-level risk increased (decreased) the deviation from book (market) target, firm-level risk partially mediated the effect of the pandemic on how far firms deviated from target ratio.
Practical implications
This study enhances our understanding of leverage adjustment during the crisis and shows that risk avoidance motive and the market value of firms are key determinants of convergence rate during the crisis and further demonstrates that market leverage is more sensitive to market dynamics. As such, caution must be taken when dealing with and interpreting market leverage SOA.
Originality/value
Although prior evidence based on international study provides insights into how firms behave toward their leverage ratios because of the pandemic, little is known about how US firms react to the pandemic in terms of the target ratios, particularly (1) since the USA is one of the severely affected countries and (2) firms in the USA reduced their leverage ratios as against what prior evidence shows. The authors provide evidence to explain how and why US firms reacted toward their SOA during the pandemic.
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The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between corporate governance and risk management of Indonesian banks.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between corporate governance and risk management of Indonesian banks.
Design/methodology/approach
Implementation of good corporate governance is measured by good corporate governance composite rating, which is the result of bank's self-assessment. Bank risk managements are measured by market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and operational risk.
Findings
The study results showed that good corporate governance implementation in Indonesia was able to influence bank risk. There were differences in credit risk, liquidity risk and operational risk in banks with different governance ratings, but not at market risk.
Originality/value
The effectiveness of risk management and good corporate governance implementation is needed to enable banks to identify problems early, to follow up on rapid improvements and to be more resilient to crises. This study is an analysis of the relationship between corporate governance and banks' risk management in Indonesia. In particular, risk management is measured by four risks: market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and operation risk.
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Ramona Serrano Bautista and José Antonio Núñez Mora
This paper tests the accuracies of the models that predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Market Integrated Latin America (MILA) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper tests the accuracies of the models that predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Market Integrated Latin America (MILA) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emerging stock markets during crisis periods.
Design/methodology/approach
Many VaR estimation models have been presented in the literature. In this paper, the VaR is estimated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models under normal, skewed-normal, Student-t and skewed-Student-t distributional assumptions and compared with the predictive performance of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CaViaR) considering the four alternative specifications proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004).
Findings
The results support the robustness of the CaViaR model in out-sample VaR forecasting for the MILA and ASEAN-5 emerging stock markets in crisis periods. This evidence is based on the results of the backtesting approach that analyzed the predictive performance of the models according to their accuracy.
Originality/value
An important issue in market risk is the inaccurate estimation of risk since different VaR models lead to different risk measures, which means that there is not yet an accepted method for all situations and markets. In particular, quantifying and forecasting the risk for the MILA and ASEAN-5 stock markets is crucial for evaluating global market risk since the MILA is the biggest stock exchange in Latin America and the ASEAN region accounted for 11% of the total global foreign direct investment inflows in 2014. Furthermore, according to the Asian Development Bank, this region is projected to average 7% annual growth by 2025.