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This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market’s expected excess return and growth of economic activity are positively related to the risk-neutral expectation, one of the term spread’s components, particularly during high uncertainty periods. These findings are consistent with the importance of the monetary policy by the central bank in a high uncertainty environment created by unexpected shocks. The results are robust to alternate definitions of high uncertainty periods.

Some controversial cases of bail-in in the emerging countries have raised the question about whether for those countries to have in place a regulation for the bail-in is appropriate or not. To assess appropriateness, this paper investigates bail-in credibility among investors, as crucial condition for the credibility’s smooth implementation, by measuring the yield spread between bailinable and non-bailinable bonds.

The authors compare the yield spread of banks located in emerging countries that have in place a framework for the bail-in to the comparable yield spread measured for banks located in emerging countries without such framework. The comparison permits to detect whether there is a significant difference between the two spreads, which would suggest that bail-in regulation has been deemed credible by market participants where enforced, or not, which in this case would signal a problem of credibility.

The authors' results point out a significantly higher yield spread for banks located in emerging countries that have adopted a framework for the bail-in of creditors. Bail-in regulation has, therefore, being deemed credible in the adopting emerging countries, thus ensuring a crucial condition for bail-in regulation's smooth application. The authors also point out bank size and country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth as crucial moderators of bail-in expectations of market participants that can guide the implementation of bail-in rules in emerging countries.

This paper contributes to the literature on the credibility of bail-in with a new perspective from the emerging countries.

This paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.

Both a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.

The results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.

The focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) implementation on Malaysian stock market index.

This study used daily closing prices of the Malaysian stock index and futures markets for the period ranging from June 2009 to November 2016. Empirical estimation is based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1) model for pre- and post-announcement of the GST.

Result shows that volatility of Malaysian stock market index increases in the post-announcement than in the pre-announcement of the GST which indicates that educative programs employed by the government before the GST announcement did not yield meaningful result. The volatility of the Malaysian stock market index is persistent during the GST announcement and highly persistent after the implementation. Noticeable increase in post-announcement is in support with the expectation of the market about GST policy in Malaysia.

The finding of this study is consistent with expectation of the market that GST policy will increase the price of the goods and services and might reduce standard of living. This is supported by a noticeable increase in the volatility of the Malaysian stock market index in the post-announcement of GST which is empirically shown during the announcement and after the implementation of GST. Although the GST announcement could be classified as a scheduled announcement, unwillingness to accept the policy prevails in the market as shown by the increase in the market volatility.

Past studies on Malaysian stock market index volatility focus on the impact of Asian and global financial crisis whereas this study examines the impact of the GST announcement and implementation on the volatility of the Malaysian stock market index.

This work proposes a framework that attempts to explain the connection between the dimensions of consumer perceived corporate social responsibility (social, environmental, economic), firm trustworthiness and firm reputation, using market level of development as a moderating factor.

Mexico and Spain were selected as the emerging and developed markets; a cross-cultural study with 1173 consumers (521 from Mexico and 652 from Spain) was undertaken. In each country, participants evaluated one of two well-known companies (one making consumer products and one providing retail services). The hypotheses were tested through SEM.

The results showed that, in the emerging market, perceived environmental actions did not influence consumers' perceptions and, in the developed market, perceived social actions had no effect.

The study identifies two mechanisms through which consumers' perceptions of a company's CSR influence company reputation, offering evidence that the level of development of a country can have a moderating effect on how the mechanisms operate.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an effective process to market high-rise luxury condominiums in a middle-income country in Asia like Sri Lanka, based on empirical evidence.

The case research methodology used to address the four research issues used multiple sources of data. In stage 1, qualitative data were collected in interviews with managers and salespersons of six condominium developments that ranged from successful to failure. In stage 2, quantitative data were collected in a survey of the buyers of the six cases.

The authors contributions to knowledge include the first evidence-based findings about what influences the success and failure of high-rise luxury condominium developments in a country like Sri Lanka. In addition, a comprehensive marketing model of an effective marketing process is developed for forward-thinking professionals in the field to use to successfully market their luxury high-rise condominiums projects in the future.

Detailed steps for successful marketing are outlined, from the Board of Management down to salespersons.

This is the first academic research paper to examine the effective marketing of high-rise luxury condominiums in a middle-income country like Sri Lanka.

The aim of the study was to analyze the performance of Black-Litterman (BL) portfolios using a views estimation procedure that simulates investor forecasts based on technical analysis.

Ibovespa, S&P500, Bitcoin and interbank deposit rate (IDR) indexes were respectively considered proxies for the national, international, cryptocurrency and fixed income stock markets. Forecasts were made out of the sample aiming at incorporating them in the BL model, using several portfolio weighting methods from June 13, 2013 to August 30, 2022.

The Sharpe, Treynor and Omega ratios point out that the proposed model, considering only variable return assets, generates portfolios with performances superior to their traditionally calculated counterparts, with emphasis on the risk parity portfolio. Nonetheless, the inclusion of the IDR leads to performance losses, especially in scenarios with lower risk tolerance. And finally, given the impact of turnover, the naive portfolio was also detected as a viable alternative.

The results obtained can contribute to improve investors practices, specifically by validating both the performance improvement – when including foreign assets and cryptocurrencies –, and the application of the BL model for asset pricing.

The main contributions of the study are: performance analysis incorporating cryptocurrencies and international assets in an uncertain recent period; the use of a methodology to compute the views simulating the behavior of managers using technical analysis; and comparing the performance of portfolio management strategies based on the BL model, taking into account different levels of risk and uncertainty.

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the earnings surprise influences decision to make earnings announcements during or after the trading hours is influenced by the earnings surprise resulting from the difference between consensus earnings estimates and the actual reported earnings.

Event study methodology was employed to test the hypotheses relating to earnings surprise and timing of earnings announcements. Twelve quarterly earnings announcements of 30 companies, drawn from BSE SENSEX of India, were studied to test the hypothesized relationships.

The study has found statistically significant differences in the market responses to the earnings announcements made during and after the trading hours. The market demonstrated a negative response to the earnings announcements made after the trading hours. Further, the results of the logistic regression have shown that the presence of significant earnings surprises is likely to induce firms to make earnings announcements after the trading hours. The results indicate that those firms that intend to reduce the overreaction and underreaction to earnings surprises are likely to make earnings announcements after the trading hours.

This paper highlights the market response to the earnings announcement made during and after the regular trading hour. Further, the paper examines if the earnings surprise influences the decision to announce the results.

China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with various major challenges. One of the most important challenges is its impact on the social and economic development of arid and semi-arid regions. By simulating the carbon price trends under different economic development and energy consumption levels, this study aims to help the government can plan ahead to formulate various countermeasures to promote the integration of arid and semi-arid regions into the national carbon market.

To achieve this goal, this paper builds a back propagation neural network model, takes the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the research object and uses the mean impact value method to screen out the important driving variables of European Union Allowance (EUA) price, including economic development (Stoxx600, Stoxx50, FTSE, CAC40 and DAX), black energy (coal and Brent), clean energy (gas, PV Crystalox Solar and Nordex) and carbon price alternatives Certification Emission Reduction (CER). Finally, this paper sets up six scenarios by combining the above variables to simulate the impact of different economic development and energy consumption levels on carbon price trends.

Under the control of the unchanged CER price level, economic development, black energy and clean energy development will all have a certain impact on the EUA price trends. When economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development are on the rise, the EUA price level will increase. When the three types of variables show a downward trend, except for the sluggish development of clean energy, which will cause the EUA price to rise sharply, the EUA price trend will also decline accordingly in the remaining scenarios.

On the one hand, this paper incorporates driving factors of carbon price into the construction of carbon price prediction system, which not only has higher prediction accuracy but also can simulate the long-term price trend. On the other hand, this paper uses scenario simulation to show the size, direction and duration of the impact of economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development on carbon prices in a more intuitive way.

In June 2014, the asset under management of National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea reached over 444 trillion won. NPS forecasts that the asset size will gradually grow to around 2,561 trillion won until 2043. The NPS investment of domestic equities and fixed income securities have been already saturated. So the NPS started to expand in global investment. Accordingly, the worries have grown that NPS's trading in foreign exchange markets may lead to the instability in FX markets. This study has analyzed the influence of NPS's foreign exchange transactions in domestic FX market. The period of study was 54 months from Jan 2010 to June 2014. For detailed research, separate analysis was performed by full year and each year. Our main findings can be summarized as follows : There are statistically plus significant influences of the NPS’s trading volume on the estimated volatility of spot rate on the first half. However, there are minus significant influences on the second half. The NPS's FX trading is known to be systematically regulated by the financial planning of the investment committee. The result of this study shows that the regulation of the NPS’s FX trading minimizes the disturbances of the currency by maintaining the stable market expectation in FX markets.