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Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

The growth of research on the cognitive origins of market performance has focused on the impact of categories as a primary cognitive mechanism by which exchange occurs. In this research, performance outcomes are typically reduced when firms and products fail to meet audiences’ expectations about membership into categories. The ensuing literature has focused on spanning categories as evidence of not meeting audience expectations while largely ignoring the specific study of expectations themselves. This chapter argues that expectations for market behavior are important in their own right, and can impact market outcomes even when categorical boundaries are respected. Using the market for engagement rings as a setting, I show how lack of adherence to expectations can both increase and decrease market value even as the engagement rings adhere to categorical boundaries. Rather than simply focusing on category spanning as evidence that audience expectations have not been met, the findings suggest that expectations should be considered explicitly, with implications for competitive strategy.

Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations.

Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto‐regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one‐step forecasts.

Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one‐step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations.

More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour.

Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset.

This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the aggregate macro behavior they co-create. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive literature survey on laboratory experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. In particular, we discuss the extent to which expectations are rational or may be described by simple forecasting heuristics, at the individual as well as the aggregate level.

The purpose of this paper is to explore cultural sources of variation on consumers’ expectations and evaluations of service quality within local emerging markets.

The authors employ a multi-method approach. The multi-method research design utilizes: first, netnography to examine foreign consumers’ blogs and online communities; second, interviews with local and foreign consumers to unveil critical incidents in service encounters; and third, an online survey of 139 foreign consumers living in Chile and 460 Chilean consumers to map differences in their expectations and evaluations of services.

A general analysis of local and foreign consumers living in an emerging market reveals that these two groups do not differ significantly in their expectations of service quality. The authors also find that differences in expectations and evaluations of service quality within a local emergent market are only partially explained by aggregating consumers according to their country or region of origin. Finally, the findings demonstrate that examining cultural differences at the individual level generates a better understanding of how cultural factors impact consumer expectations and evaluations of service quality within emerging markets.

The research is limited to one emerging market (Chile) and focusses largely in one industry (banking). Further research should be conducted to examine the findings in other contexts, including developed markets, and to identify how other cultural differences (e.g. language mastery) within local markets may impact consumer expectations and evaluations of services.

Service companies operating in emerging markets should account for cultural differences when determining service standards and protocols. These differences may cut across the local-foreign divide and suggest that profiling foreign customers depending on their country of origin is not the most adequate approach for providing excellence in service and enjoying the benefits that follow.

Foreign consumers living in a local market are frequently considered a homogeneous group distinct from local consumers, and are treated as such by public and private service providers. The study demonstrates that foreign consumers may be more or less similar to local consumers depending on their cultural values, and should not be considered as a uniform group.

The findings extend research on consumer expectations and evaluations of service quality to account for cultural diversity within local emerging markets. The authors demonstrate that a cluster-approach to examining consumer expectations and evaluations of service quality better accounts for variations due to cultural values within local markets.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the direct and exclusive effects of this rather unconventional monetary policy on financial markets, economic activity and labor markets across the Eurozone.

Using a range of variables, the analysis employed the Markov-switching dynamic regression methodological approach.

The findings provided evidence in favor of the reduction of short- and log-term credit spreads, increased stock prices, improved market expectations, recovered labor market conditions and economic productivity, while the primary transmission channel of the quantitative easing policy is the expectations channel.

The novelties of this paper are twofold: it makes use of a wide data set to investigate the effect of economic and financial variables on productivity, labor markets, bond markets and equity markets in the Eurozone; and the analysis focuses on the direct effects of monetary base increases on the Eurozone economy, as well as on Eurozone financial markets.

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the Pygmalion hypothesis is supported in the housing market and the hypothesis that investors are, all too frequently, unrealistically over‐optimistic cannot be rejected.

The methodology in the paper relies on a cross‐sectional questionnaire survey and a longitudinal telephone survey.

The findings in the paper demonstrate that self‐fulfilling prophecies occur in property markets. The effect of self‐fulfilling expectations is common and more powerful than rational real estate fundamentals. The consistent pattern of significant over‐forecasting of housing prices suggest that the hypothesis that investors are, most of the time, over‐confident cannot be rejected.

In the longitudinal survey in this paper, only limited samples were secured. The developmental change of attitudes and buying behaviors over time was not observed. People's price expectations might be different from those reported in the first three waves of survey, as real estate fundamentals change from time to time.

In the paper a forward looking approach is used to solicit people's views on current and future housing prices, investment considerations and sentiment over time. An increase in property price being simply the outcome of self‐fulfilling expectations – the Pygmalion Effect will be signaled to housing participants. Studying people's confidence and sentiments helps understand speculative enthusiasm or ‘bubble”.

The longitudinal survey in the paper on people's price expectations is the first of its kind in Hong Kong. The results are beneficial to policy makers, homeowners, potential homebuyers and investors. Housing decisions of potential homebuyers can be made more rationally and Government officials can have more reliable property information and data for policy formulation.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market’s expected excess return and growth of economic activity are positively related to the risk-neutral expectation, one of the term spread’s components, particularly during high uncertainty periods. These findings are consistent with the importance of the monetary policy by the central bank in a high uncertainty environment created by unexpected shocks. The results are robust to alternate definitions of high uncertainty periods.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the expectations component contained in the asking price of residential property, in order to assess whether expectation plays a relevant role in house price appreciation. The paper tests the role of housing characteristics and value perception on asking price.

The hypothesis tested in this paper is that asking price of residential properties includes an element of price expectation. The analysis utilises a valuation database of about 1,900,000 records for the Spanish housing market, each record contains information on the price that owners expect to obtain on the sale of their property and housing and neighbourhood characteristics. There are three stages to the analysis. Regression analysis is used to estimate the hedonic models and separate that part of the price arising from housing heterogeneity, a two‐stage least squares model estimates the role of expectations and a metadata approach measures those characteristics that explain the change in the explanatory power of the hedonic models over time.

The results show that the explanatory power of hedonic models change with time suggesting that the point in the market cycle modifies the perception of price. The results indicate that the theoretical variables which explain expectations account for about 8 per cent of price, with most of the unexplained element of asking prices due to reasons related with local market conditions.

This paper offers two original insights. First, the paper presents analysis based on asking prices and shows how this could be used as a tool to measure house price expectations. Second, the paper provides further perspectives of the Spanish housing market based on a major database of observations.

Consumer expectation not only influences purchase decision but also post-purchase satisfaction and word-of-mouth (WOM). This study aims to develop theories of initial expectation management by suggesting when it is desirable for new products to raise or lower consumer expectations. It systematically examines the interplay of product value and consumer heterogeneity in the dynamic process of new product diffusion under competition.

Drawing on traditional diffusion and choice models, this study develops an agent-based model to formalize and analyze how consumers’ initial expectations of a new product influence the interdependent processes of product sales, consumer satisfaction and WOM. The simulation analyses in controlled settings help understand the underlying mechanisms in a stepwise manner.

The results show that, although the optimal strategy for low-value products is to induce consumer expectations higher than product value, high-value products are better introduced with expectations formed close to it. The results also highlight an important drawback of “under-promising” strategies in reducing the base and volume of WOM. Further, the analysis illustrates how consumer heterogeneities in product valuation and initial expectation affect the effectiveness of expectation management. For high-value products, both heterogeneities reduce the effectiveness of the optimal strategy. For low-value products, however, value heterogeneity enhances the effectiveness, whereas expectation heterogeneity reduces it.

Firms introducing new products should be sensitive to how consumers value the product and form expectations about it. Different from firms that must rely on aggressive advertising to sell inferior products by building up high expectations, those with superior products can rely more on the power of consumer WOM, which is much less costly and thus gives them a competitive advantage. Firms should also pay attention to how diversified the consumers are in product valuation and expectation. The expectation management strategy is more effective when consumers form more similar expectations. Inferior firms may leverage this mechanism to neutralize their disadvantages.

The articulated mechanisms help push forward the research on new product diffusion and consumer expectation management. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies to systematically analyze the impact of consumer heterogeneity on the effectiveness of expectation management.