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Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Maqsood Ahmad

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management…

2044

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.

Design/methodology/approach

For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.

Findings

This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.

Practical implications

The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.

Originality/value

Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 January 2021

Rexford Abaidoo

This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs fixed effects statistical approach in its examination of how specific features of financial markets influence variability in its efficiency.

Findings

This study finds that individual IMF defined economic regions tend to exhibits significantly different financial market efficiency characteristics given specific market features and conditions. In regional level comparative analysis (e.g. Europe, Africa, Asia–Pacific etc.) this study finds that incidence of financial market uncertainty is the dominant condition with significant effect on financial market efficiency across all the IMF regions. In the global level analysis, empirical estimates presented suggest that financial market uncertainty, financial institutional depth and financial institutional efficiency tend to have significant positive influence on global financial market efficiency all things being equal. In the same analysis however, this study finds that financial market and financial institutional access growth has significant negative impact on financial market efficiency.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study compared to related ones found in the literature stems from its focus on financial market efficiency at the global, and IMF defined regional block level instead of on a specific economy as often found in the literature. Additionally, in contrast to other related studies, this study further examines the role of global financial market uncertainty in its financial market efficiency analysis. Financial market uncertainty variable may be unique to this study because the variable is derived through an econometric process from a base variable.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 36 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 May 2022

Maqsood Ahmad and Qiang Wu

This article aims to clarify the mechanism by which herding behavior influences perceived market efficiency, investment decisions and the performance of individual investors…

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Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to clarify the mechanism by which herding behavior influences perceived market efficiency, investment decisions and the performance of individual investors actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Design/methodology/approach

The deductive approach was used in this study, as the research is based on the theoretical framework of behavioral finance. A questionnaire and cross-sectional design were employed to collect data from the sample of 309 investors trading on the PSX. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS graphics software. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM).

Findings

The article provides further empirical insights into the relationship between herding behavior and investment management and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that herding behavior has a markedly negative influence on perceived market efficiency and investment performance, while positively influencing the decision-making of individual investors.

Originality/value

The current study is the first to focus on links between herding behavior and investment management activities and perceived market efficiency. This article enhances the understanding of the role that herding behavior plays in investment management and, more importantly, it improves understanding of behavioral aspects and their influence on investment decision-making in an emerging market. It also adds to the literature in the area of behavioral finance, specifically the role of herding behavior in investment management; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while little work has been done in developing countries.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 60 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 October 2016

Rossazana Ab-Rahim and Sheen Nie Chiang

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the market structure and financial performance of Malaysian commercial banks over the period of 2000 to 2011…

2920

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the market structure and financial performance of Malaysian commercial banks over the period of 2000 to 2011 by testing the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) and efficient-structure (ESH) hypotheses.

Design/methodology/approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is employed to measure the efficiency of banks, while concentration ratio is used to assess the market structure of Malaysian banks. Next, utilizing the least squares method, both variables – market structure and efficiency of banks – among other explanatory variables (market share, operating expenses, loans ratio and size of banks) are regressed upon the dependent variable, namely financial performance of banks represented by return on asset (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIMTA).

Findings

The concentration of Malaysian banking industry is at a declining trend; structurally speaking, Malaysian banks are more competitive due to less market concentration. In terms of efficiency, the DEA results reveal that Malaysian banks are operating below their capacity at 40 per cent of efficiency. Thus, Malaysian banks could reduce their utilization of inputs by 60 per cent to operate on the efficient frontier. Next, the results offer support to ESH, which implies that market concentration and banking efficiency determines the profitability performance of Malaysian commercial banks.

Originality/value

Past studies on Malaysian banking sector had tended to focus either on measuring the performance or assessing the market structure of banks. Thus, this study attempts to fill the gap in the literature by testing the nexus between the market structure and the performance of banks.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2018

Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Maqsood Ahmad and Faisal Mahmood

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)…

10044

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation.

Practical implications

The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases.

Originality/value

The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Muhammad Rehan and Mustafa Gül

This study aimed to examine the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the stock markets of 12 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), such as Egypt…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to examine the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the stock markets of 12 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), such as Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 (CV-19) epidemic. The objective was to classify the effects on individual indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) on daily returns. After calculation and analysis, the data were then divided into two significant events: the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic. Additionally, the market deficiency measure (MDM) was utilized to assess and rank market efficiency.

Findings

The findings indicate that the average returns series exhibited persistent and non-persistent patterns during the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic, respectively. The study employed MF-DFA to analyze the sequence of normal returns. The results suggest that the average returns series displayed persistent and non-persistent patterns during the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic, respectively. Furthermore, all markets demonstrated efficiency during the two crisis periods, with Turkey and Tunisia exhibiting the highest and deepest levels of efficiency, respectively. The multifractal properties were influenced by long-range correlations and fat-tailed distributions, with the latter being the primary contributor. Moreover, the impact of the fat-tailed distribution on multifractality was found to be more pronounced for indices with lower market efficiency. In conclusion, this study categorizes indices with low market efficiency during both crisis periods, which subsequently affect the distribution of assets among shareholders in the stock markets of OIC member countries.

Practical implications

Multifractal patterns, especially the long memory property observed in stock markets, can assist investors in formulating profitable investment strategies. Additionally, this study will contribute to a better understanding of market trends during similar events should they occur in the future.

Originality/value

This research marks the initial effort to assess the impact of the GFC and the CV19 pandemic on the efficiency of stock markets in OIC countries. This undertaking is of paramount importance due to the potential destabilizing and harmful effects of these events on global financial markets and societal well-being. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first investigation utilizing the MFDFA method to analyze the primary stock markets of OIC countries, encompassing both the GFC and CV19 crises.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2019

Emna Mnif, Bassem Salhi and Anis Jarboui

The purpose of this paper is to present the Islamic stock and Sukuk market efficiency and focus on the presence of investor herding behaviour (HB) captured by Hurst exponent…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present the Islamic stock and Sukuk market efficiency and focus on the presence of investor herding behaviour (HB) captured by Hurst exponent estimation.

Design/methodology/approach

The Hurst exponent was estimated with various methods. The authors studied the evolving efficiency of the “Dow Jones” indices from 1 January 2010 to 30 December 2016 using a rolling sample of the Hurst exponent. In addition, they used a time-varying parameter method based on the Hurst of delayed returns. After that, the robust Hurst method was considered. In the next step, the efficiency of the different activity types of Islamic bonds was studied using an efficiency index. Finally, the Hurst exponent estimates were applied to assess the presence of HB.

Findings

The results show that, firstly, there’s a strong correlation between the “DJIM” and “DJSI” prices and returns. Secondly, by using robust Hurst estimate, it is observed that the “DJIM” is the most efficient market. The Hurst exponent estimation results show that HB is more intensive in the Islamic stock market. These results indicate also the inexistence of this behaviour in the studied Sukuk market.

Research limitations/implications

Sukuk as Islamic financial assets is recent. Their relative time series are not long enough to apply the long memory approach. Furthermore, this work can be extended to study other Islamic financial markets.

Practical implications

Herding affects risk-return characteristics of assets and has an impact on asset pricing models. Practitioners are interested in understanding herding and its timing as it might create profitable trading opportunities.

Social implications

This work analyses the impact of Islamic principles on the financial markets and their ability to understand some behavioural biases.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by identifying the efficiency and the presence of HB with Hurst exponent estimation in Islamic markets.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 July 2021

Richa Pandey and V. Mary Jessica

The purpose of this study to evaluate the evolving market efficiency of the housing market under the framework of adaptive market hypothesis and martingale difference hypothesis…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study to evaluate the evolving market efficiency of the housing market under the framework of adaptive market hypothesis and martingale difference hypothesis taking a case of India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a wild bootstrap version of the generalized spectral (GS) test in the rolling window framework to measure possible time-varying linear and non-linear dependence in the housing market.

Findings

The study finds that the Indian housing market, in general, is not efficient, and this efficiency is dynamic, which changes with time lending support to the adaptive market hypothesis. The study confirms that the evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via behavioural biases affects the efficiency of the housing market, which leads to the evolving efficiency of the housing market prices.

Research limitations/implications

The study believes that the potential implications go beyond evolutionary forces and the adaptive market hypothesis , which, does not only depend on an individual's decision-making process but also on social psychology. Thus, a further attempt in this line, taking into account the social psychology and quantitative rigour towards drivers of evolving efficiency is suggested for future research.

Practical implications

The study suggests that there is a possibility of extra returns for market players, but not always. The Indian housing market has witnessed several landmark reforms in recent years, so it is believed that these reforms would decrease the inefficiency level of this market. Contrary to this, the study’s findings reveal an increase in the inefficiency level in recent years. As the Indian housing market shows evolving efficiency, it is believed that the increased inefficiency is temporary. The increased inefficiency can be regarded as the settlement stage of the various policy and technical reforms.

Originality/value

Confirming the presence or absence of adaptive efficiency in the housing market under possible non-linear dependence will be a significant addition to the existing literature.

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2013

Priyanka Jain, Vishal Vyas and Ankur Roy

This paper aims to study the weak form of efficiency of Indian capital market during the period of global financial crisis in the form of random walk.

1360

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the weak form of efficiency of Indian capital market during the period of global financial crisis in the form of random walk.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considered daily closing prices of S&P CNX Nifty, BSE, CNX100, S&P CNX 500 from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2010. The data source is the equity market segment of NSE and BSE. Both parametric and nonparametric tests (“ex‐posts” in nature) are applied for the purpose of testing weak‐form efficiency. The parametric tests include Augmented Dickey‐Fuller (ADF) unit root tests and nonparametric tests include Phillips‐Perron (PP) unit root tests and Run test. ADF tests use a parametric autoregressive structure to capture serial correlation and PP tests use non‐parametric corrections based on estimates of the long‐run variance of ΔYt.

Findings

The results suggested that the Indian stock market was efficient in its weak form during the period of recession. It means that investors should not be able to consistently earn abnormal gains by analysing the historical prices. Hence one should not be able to make a profit from using something that everybody else knows.

Practical implications

The study reports that all the stocks in these selected indices are fundamentally strong and their prices are not influenced largely by historical prices and other relevant factors which came from industry and any other information that is publically available. Thus it can be concluded that the Indian stock market was informationally efficient and no investor can usurp any privileged information to make abnormal profits.

Originality/value

Where past studies have examined the weak‐form of efficiency of various markets and the effect of globalisation and global financial crisis on the various sectors of developing and emerging economies, this paper attempts to study the weak form of efficiency of the Indian capital market in the period of recession in the form of random walk.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 November 2018

Varuna Kharbanda and Archana Singh

Corporate treasurers manage the currency risk of their organization by hedging through futures contracts. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of hedging by…

Abstract

Purpose

Corporate treasurers manage the currency risk of their organization by hedging through futures contracts. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of hedging by US currency futures contracts by taking into account the efficiency of the currency market.

Design/methodology/approach

The static models for calculating hedge ratio are as popular as dynamic models. But the main disadvantage with the static models is that they do not consider important properties of time series like autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of the residuals and also ignore the cointegration of the market variables which indicate short-run market disequilibrium. The present study, therefore, measures the hedging effectiveness in the US currency futures market using two dynamic models – constant conditional correlation multivariate generalized ARCH (CCC-MGARCH) and dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH (DCC-MGARCH).

Findings

The study finds that both the dynamic models used in the study provide similar results. The relative comparison of CCC-MGARCH and DCC-MGARCH models shows that CCC-MGARCH provides better hedging effectiveness result, and thus, should be preferred over the other model.

Practical implications

The findings of the study are important for the company treasurers since the new updated Indian accounting standards (Ind-AS), applicable from the financial year 2016–2017, make it mandatory for the companies to evaluate the effectiveness of hedges. These standards do not specify a quantitative method of evaluation but provide the flexibility to the companies in choosing an appropriate method which justifies their risk management objective. These results are also useful for the policy makers as they can specify and list the appropriate methods for evaluating the hedge effectiveness in the currency market.

Originality/value

Majorly, the studies on Indian financial market limit themselves to either examining the efficiency of that market or to evaluate the effectiveness of the hedges undertaken. Moreover, most of such works focus on the stock market or the commodity market in India. This is one of the first studies which bring together the concepts of efficiency of the market and effectiveness of the hedges in the Indian currency futures market.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 13 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 100000