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Structural models' inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naïve devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction mechanisms, built by automatic model selection, are compared to various robust devices. Forecast-error taxonomies for aggregated and time-disaggregated information reveal that the impacts of structural breaks are identical between these, helping to interpret the empirical findings. Forecast failures in structural models are driven by their deterministic terms, confirming location shifts as a pernicious cause thereof, and explaining the success of robust devices.

In recent work, we have developed a theory of economic forecasting for empirical econometric models when there are structural breaks. This research shows that well-specified models may forecast poorly, whereas it is possible to design forecasting devices more immune to the effects of breaks. In this chapter, we summarise key aspects of that theory, describe the models and data, then provide an empirical illustration of some of these developments when the goal is to generate sequences of inflation forecasts over a long historical period, starting with the model of annual inflation in the UK over 1875–1991 in Hendry (2001a).

We study up to 27 years of weekly data on nine currencies to examine the importance of the Japanese yen in exchange rate determination in North and Southeast Asia. We combine a time-varying methodology alongside a focus on long-run equilibrium. Our findings suggest that the Japanese yen had virtually no influence on Asian exchange rates in the 10-year period prior to the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Since the crisis, the yen and the German mark in particular have exerted a significant influence over the region's exchange rates except for the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar and the Malaysian ringgit, which continue to be closely related to the US dollar.

Purpose – This chapter illustrates how female university kendo club members participate in kendo-related hegemonic drinking in formal (heterosocial) and informal (homosocial) club settings. An alternative perspective on gender relations and identity politics in Japan is outlined in this chapter by describing the significance of hegemonic drinking for female kendo club members within homosocial spaces.

Methodology – As a participant-observer, an ethnographic method was applied for an 18-month period as a quasi-member of a Japanese Sports University Kendo Club. Key to accessing the female members' lived experience was the primary author's participation in daily training and the consumption of alcohol in various kendo spaces. The data discussed in this chapter were collected via semi-structured interviews, daily self-reflexive descriptive field notes and ethnographic interviews.

Findings – Hegemonic drinking practices in heterosocial university kendo club spaces encompass networking opportunity, transference of knowledge, and fortitude building, all of which are systemized to support the advancement of male members. Although female members are relatively obscured in heterosocial spaces, women mimic and engage in hegemonic drinking practices in homosocial settings to substantiate meaning to their membership.

Research limitations/implication – Research that engages with the intersection of sport and gender needs to consider aspects of social interaction not only of the physical component of the sport but also the other day-to-day activities related to it. The examination of women and kendo-related hegemonic drinking in this chapter provides an insightful perspective and highlights the value of the ethnographic method in unexplored places of enquiry integral to researching physical cultures and body politics in Japan.

We thank the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting at the John Cook School of Business at Saint Louis University – especially Jack Strauss, Director of the Simon Center and Ellen Harshman, Dean of the Cook School – for its generosity and hospitality in hosting a conference during the summer of 2006 where many of the chapters appearing in this volume were presented. The conference provided a forum for discussing many important issues relating to forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty, and participants viewed the conference as helping to significantly improve the quality of the research appearing in the chapters of this volume.³ This volume is part of Elsevier's new series, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, and we also thank Hamid Beladi for his support as an Editor of the series.

In contrast to recent forecasting developments, “Old School” forecasting techniques, such as exponential smoothing and the Box–Jenkins methodology, do not attempt to explicitly model or estimate breaks in a time series. Adherents of the “New School” methodology argue that once breaks are well estimated, it is possible to control for regime shifts when forecasting. We compare the forecasts of monthly unemployment rates in 10 OECD countries using various Old School and New School methods. Although each method seems to have drawbacks and no one method dominates the others, the Old School methods often outperform the New School methods for forecasting the unemployment rates.

From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. This uncertainty formula should incorporate forecaster discord, as justified by (i) disagreement as a component of combined forecast uncertainty, (ii) the model averaging literature, and (iii) central banks’ communication of uncertainty via fan charts. Using new statistics to test for the homogeneity of idiosyncratic errors under the joint limits with both T and n approaching infinity simultaneously, the authors find that some previously used measures can significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty.

This chapter argues that the concept of metagovernance offers an alternative to multi-level governance (MLG) for understanding how policy is delivered through complex networks. Whereas MLG portrays the state as a diminished entity, metagovernance argues for a strong, capable state that can govern through the deployment of policy tools. The chapter identifies and evaluates how policy tools are selected to realise the strategic objectives of government.

A critical case methodology is employed. Nuclear power is held to be a most difficult test for the British government’s ability to metagovern. The empirical data was collected from in-depth qualitative interviews conducted between August 2008 and July 2013.

The chapter shows that the British government’s metagovernance efforts are informed by the risks that would-be developer face. The British government is shown to have some ability to practice metagovernance but the complexities of nuclear power and the existence of a MLG structure create risks that government cannot overcome. It is also observed that in nuclear power programmes, the risks of construction cost overruns and electricity price fluctuations have the greatest impact on the calculations of would-be developers.

The findings offer insight into the limits of government capacity in the face of networks and claims of continued state power. The chapter links together the literature on risk and the emergent literature on metagovernance. It is shown that institutional risks in the form of political opportunism are ever present and cannot be easily overcome.

Government are often called upon oversee difficult projects that are delivered by commercial actors. The findings indicate how governments might approach the task and point to a need for greater sensitivity to the nature of the project itself.

The empirical results show that to moderate risk, government has tended to adopt very technocratic policies that limit wider democratic consultation in favour of working directly with commercial actors.

The chapter presents a detailed analysis of government decision-making in a highly controversial area of public policy – nuclear power.