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The purpose of this paper is to construct a robust macroeconomic performance (MEP) index of the State economies of an emerging market economy, i.e. India.

Two variants of data envelopment analysis (DEA) models – radial and non‐radial – are proposed to construct the macroeconomic policy performance of 22 Indian State economies in the post‐economic reforms era covering the period: 1994‐1995 to 2001‐2002, using three macroeconomic indicators: growth in gross state domestic product, price stability, and fiscal deficit.

The authors' three broad empirical findings are: first, the radial and non‐radial DEA models yield significantly different rankings of State economies in terms of their MEP index scores; second, as against the use of only growth in gross state domestic product and price stability for MEP measure, the inclusion of fiscal deficit as an additional indicator yields a noticeable improvement not only in the State MEP index scores, but also in their rankings, thus providing the evidence of relatively successful attempt by the Indian States in reducing fiscal deficit, in general, and legislating FRBM bill, in particular; and third, a positive significant correlation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and MEP indicates that a State's overall macroeconomic policy performance does matter to attract FDI.

Since the DEA models employed in this study ignore the possibility of asymmetric shocks, the MEP results might be questioned in this deterministic setting. However, the study period has been smooth and has not been subject to any major changes in the State economic policies. Therefore, the MEP results might not be susceptible such changes. However, further research is desired on examining the macroeconomic policy performance behavior of Indian States using bootstrapping DEA.

None of the past Indian studies were able to give a comprehensive picture concerning the MEP behavior of Indian State economies, since the methodologies adopted in those studies were not suitable to take into consideration all the macro indicators at a time. Therefore, this present study is considered the first of its kind in assessing the MEP index of the Indian State economies by simultaneously considering all the macro indicators.

The new economic-policy regime in Sweden in the 1990s included deregulation, central-bank independence, inflation targets and fiscal rules but also active labour market policy and voluntary incomes policy. This chapter describes the content, determinants and performance of the new economic policy in Sweden in a comparative, mainly Nordic, perspective. The new economic-policy regime is explained by the deep recession and budget crisis in the early 1990s, new economic ideas and the power of economic experts. In the 1998–2007 period, Sweden displayed relatively low inflation and high productivity growth, but unemployment was high, especially by national standards. The restrictive monetary policy was responsible for the low inflation, and the dynamic (ICT) sector was decisive for the productivity miracle. Furthermore, productivity increases in the ICT sector largely explains why the Central Bank undershot its inflation target in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The new economic-policy regime in Sweden performed well during the global financial crisis. However, as in other OECD countries, the moderate increase in unemployment was largely attributed to labour hoarding. And the rapid recovery of the Baltic countries made it possible for Sweden to avoid a bank crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables and economic policies on expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs. It provides an econometric analysis of the expectation transmission channel under inflation targeting in Brazil, emphasizing the effect of inflation targeting credibility on the business confidence of industrial entrepreneurs.

Based on ordinary least square (OLS), generalized method of moments (GMM) and vector autoregression (VAR), the paper provides empirical evidence about the influence of inflation targeting credibility and macroeconomic policies on expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs and, as a consequence, on industrial production.

The evidence for the Brazilian economy suggest that monetary and fiscal policies as well as the credibility of the monetary regime affect economic activity by their impact on expectations of entrepreneurs.

Development of macroeconomic stability is important to the expectations formed by entrepreneurs and, therefore, for industrial production. In particular, inflation targeting credibility stimulates industrial production, since it increases the confidence of entrepreneurs about the functioning of the economy and their businesses.

The results suggest new insights about the influence of economic policies on the real side of the economy, pointing out that the conduct of economic policies in emerging countries with inflation targets are likely to affect the expectations of entrepreneurs and therefore their production decisions.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of institutional quality based on six separate indicators of governance: voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.

The determinants under consideration include measures of economic freedom by the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation, indicators of policy quality, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP), risk rating, and the degree of openness.

Five measures of institutional quality increase real GDP growth significantly across Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. In contrast, institutional quality has a negative impact on the growth of private credit and private investment. Further, the combined evidence does not suggest that improvement in institutional quality is a major factor in attracting foreign direct investment flows to MENA countries.

The research provides startling evidence that illustrates how institutions have impacted macroeconomic performance and the underlying roots of institutional quality. Addressing shortcomings in institutions should top the policy agenda in an effort to drive the growth process.

Improving institutional quality will distribute the benefits of growth and enhance macroeconomic performance in the MENA region, which is rich in endowed resources. Nonetheless, the region lacks fundamentals of economic management and quality governance to utilize resources in the most efficient and productive fashion in order to maximize the welfare for a growing population that is constantly seeking productive opportunities to secure employment and a higher real standard of living.

The MENA region is understudied and worthy of much more empirical work. Many cross‐country studies of the determinants of growth omit oil‐producing nations. Focusing on this oil‐rich region is an attempt to fill this void. Unlike previous literature on the relationship between institutions and growth, the paper's approach to the issue analyzes micro foundations in the transmission channel between institutions and economic growth.

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or group of countries.

These regions or group of countries are Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the rest of the world. A macroeconometric model containing 15 behavioral equations and eight identities.

Cointegration results suggest that there exist long-run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on unit value of export (export price), unit value of import (import price), exchange rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve suggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan.

In this study, the authors develop for the first time ever a macroeconometric model for the evaluation and forecasting of regional trade policy and performance for Pakistan.

The global financial crisis has magnified the role of Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS) in the International Monetary Fund's activities. This chapter surveys the various steps and initiatives through which the Fund has increasingly deepened its involvement in FSS. Overall, this process can be characterised by a preliminary stage and two main phases. The preliminary stage dates back to the 1980s and early 1990s, and was mainly related to the Fund's research and technical assistance activities within the process of monetary and financial deregulation embraced by several member countries. The first ‘official’ phase of the Fund's involvement in FSS started in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis, and relates to the international call to include financial sector issues among the core areas of Fund surveillance. The second phase focuses on the objectives of bringing the coverage of financial sector issues ‘up-to-par’ with the coverage of other traditional core areas of surveillance, and of integrating financial analysis into the Fund's analytical macroeconomic framework. By urging the Fund to give greater attention to its member countries' financial systems, the international community's response to the global crisis may mark the beginning of a new phase of FSS. The Fund's financial sector surveillance, particularly on advanced economies, is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing countries, as they are vulnerable to spillover effects from crises originated in advanced economies. Emerging market and developing economies, which constitute the majority of the Fund's 187 members, are currently the recipients of over 50 programmes of financial support from the Fund (including those of a precautionary nature), totalling over $250 billion.

The paper analyzes the relative technical efficiency of the transition economies of the Western Balkans in the period 2007–2021, in comparison with the former countries with a socialist state system, today members of the European Union (EU), based on selected macroeconomic indicators and panel data.

Data envelopment analysis (DEA), i.e. its extension, DEA Window analysis, is applied. Total technical efficiency, as a prerequisite of economic efficiency, is decomposed into pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). Bootstrapping method and Mann–Whitney U test were used to check the robustness of the obtained results, i.e. efficiency values.

The results show that in 2020, all observed countries recorded a significant drop in economic efficiency as a result of a general, disproportionate drop in the value of selected macroeconomic variables, which occurred due to the global economic crisis and the slowdown in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This drop in efficiency was significantly greater in the former socialist states, now members of the European Union, which showed their greater sensitivity to global crises. None of the observed economies in the observed period was relatively efficient, that is, at the level of best practice, which occurred primarily as a consequence of the inefficiency of business conditions expressed in the economies of scale.

The main limitation of this study stems from the very nature of the concept of DEA efficiency, which is relative in nature. Also, the results and their interpretation are also significantly influenced by the choice of model variables, as shown by Lábaj et al. (2013), as well as a small number of decision-making units (DMUs). The mentioned limitations prevent unambiguous interpretation and generalization of the obtained results.

The study may be of importance to economic policy makers in macroeconomic decision-making. The application of the DEA concept in measuring the technical efficiency of national economies is a useful tool in the analysis of macroeconomic performance and a benchmarking approach for positioning and achieving competitive advantage on the international market.

Since research of this type is very limited, the results of this study make a theoretical and empirical contribution to the literature, creating a basis for future research and reexamination. The application of the DEA concept in measuring the technical efficiency of national economies is a useful tool in the analysis of macroeconomic performance and a benchmarking approach for positioning and achieving competitive advantage in the international market.

The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons. First, Nigeria is the largest economy in SSA. Second, Nigeria was also significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study employed the time-varying structural autoregressive (TVSVAR) model to control for the potential asymmetry in fiscal variables and to control for the shift in the structural shift, following a macroeconomic shock. As a form of robustness, the study also implements the time-varying Granger causality to formally assess the temporal instability of the variable of interest.

The results show that an oil price shock is an important source of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Importantly, the results indicate that the effects of fiscal policy are strongly time varying. Specifically, the results show that fiscal policy helps to stabilize the economy, (i.e. they help to reduce inflation and spur output growth) following macroeconomic shock. Further, the Granger test shows that fiscal policy helped to spur growth in Nigeria. The research and policy implications are discussed.

The study accounts for the time-varying effects of fiscal policy.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the special issue on “Labour, productivity and growth”.

The paper discusses the articles in the special issue, which investigate the main theme – labour, productivity and growth – from different points of view by employing a variety of econometric methods. These include improvement of the evaluation of the impact of labour market flexibility on economic performance, analysis of the macroeconomic law of decreasing returns to labour, a new panel co‐integration method, and a reinterpretation of co‐integration analysis to assess the impact of incomes policy. Institutional variables, in particular the system of industrial relations, are duly considered.

The papers in the special issue highlight different causes of sluggish economic (productivity) growth in Europe, in the light of not only traditional macroeconomic variables, such as total factor productivity and labour market flexibility, but also such factors as neo‐corporatist industrial relations and management practices, which are generally neglected in the literature.

The paper introduces a number of articles proposing innovations in the interpretation and application of a wide range of theoretical approaches and econometric methodologies. It also discusses several policy suggestions for fighting sluggish productivity growth, including investment in research and development, human capital, flexicurity, innovative industrial relations practices and high‐performance workplace practices also considered capable of affecting macroeconomic performance.