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Port throughput analysis is a challenging task, as it consists of intertwined interactions between a variety of cargos and numerous influencing factors. This study aims to propose a quantitative method to facilitate port throughput analysis by identification of important cargos and key macroeconomic variables.

Mutual information is applied to measure the linear and nonlinear correlation among variables. The method gives a unique measure of dependence between two variables by quantifying the amount of information held in one variable through another variable.

This study uses the mutual information to the Port of Isafjordur in Iceland to underpin the port throughput analysis. The results show that marine products are the main export cargo, whereas most imports are fuel oil, industrial materials and marine product. The aggregation of these cargos, handled in the port, meaningfully determines the non-containerized port throughput. The relation between non-containerized export and the national gross domestic product (GDP) is relatively high. However, non-containerized import is mostly related to the world GDP. The non-containerized throughput shows a strong relation to the national GDP. Furthermore, the results reveal that the volume of national export trade is the key influencing macroeconomic variable to the containerized throughput.

Application of the mutual information in port throughput analysis effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty in the identification of important cargos and key influencing macroeconomic variables. Thus, it increases the reliability of the port throughput forecast.

Motivated by the negative effect of external shocks on the domestic economy, this study explores the role of financial sector development in absorbing the effect of external shocks on macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria.

Autoregressive distributed lag and fully modify ordinary least square are used to examine the moderating effect of financial development in the link between external shocks and macroeconomic volatilities in Nigeria between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. External shock is proxy using oil price shock, and financial development is proxy by domestic credit to the private sector and market capitalisation. At the same time, macroeconomic volatility is proxy by output and inflation volatilities. Macroeconomic volatilities are generated using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH 1,1).

The results indicate that domestic credit to the private sector significantly reduces output and inflation volatilities in Nigeria in the short and long run. However, market capitalisation promotes macroeconomic volatility. More specifically, financial development indicators play different roles in curtaining macroeconomic volatilities. The results also reveal that external shocks stimulate macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria in the short and long run. Nevertheless, the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic volatilities are reduced when the role of financial development is incorporated.

This study, therefore, concludes that strong financial sector development serves as a significant shock absorber in reducing the adverse effect of external shock on the domestic economy.

This study contributes to the extant studies by introducing a country-specific analysis into the empirical examination of how financial development can moderate the influence of external shock on macroeconomic volatilities.

The main purpose of this research is to examine the influence of macroeconomic stability on economic growth of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries.

Using panel data of 1991–2020, fixed effect regression analysis, pooled ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments techniques have been conducted to demonstrate whether macroeconomic stability contributes to economic growth. Moreover, cross-sectional dependency test, unit root test, correlation analysis and granger causality tests have been run.

Robust findings indicate that inflation has negative impacts on economic growth which indicates that lower level of macroeconomic instability promotes countries’ economic growth. This study also observed that foreign direct investment, domestic credit delivered to private sector, currency exchange and institutional difference across countries are affirmatively connected while labor force is negatively associated with economic growth.

Empirical findings of this study signify that macroeconomic stability have significant effects on economic growth. Findings of this study have superior contributions for the policy makers to achieve sustainable economic growth.

The study examines the effect of macroeconomic risk, inflation uncertainty and instability associated with key macroeconomic indicators on the efficiency of financial institutions among economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Data for the empirical inquiry were compiled from 35 SSA economies from 1996 to 2019. The empirical estimates were carried out using pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) with Driscoll and Kraay’s (1998) standard errors.

Reported empirical estimates show that macroeconomic risk and exchange rate volatility constrain the efficiency of financial institutions. Further results suggest that inflation uncertainty has a significant influence on the efficiency of financial institutions among economies in the subregion. Additionally, reviewed empirical estimates show that institutional quality positively moderates the nexus between inflation uncertainty and financial institution efficiency. At the same time, political instability is found to worsen the adverse effect of macroeconomic risk on the efficiency of financial institutions.

For policymakers and governments, improved institutional structures are recommended to ensure the operational efficiency of financial institutions, especially during an inflationary period. For decision-makers among financial institutions, the study recommends policies that have the potential to make their institutions less vulnerable to macroeconomic risk and exchange rate fluctuations.

The approach adopted in this study differs significantly from related studies in that the study examines and reviews interactions and relationships not readily found in the reviewed literature.

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.

The study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.

Empirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.

Apart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.

The uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

本研究旨在探討與通貨膨脹有關的狀況的組成部分(通脹預期 、通脹不確定性及體現了的通脹), 宏觀經濟不確定性及經濟衰退狀況的可能性、在一段特定時間內對美國銀行業的表現指數有何種程度的影響。

研究採用塞爾納 (Zellner) (1962) 提出的看似無關迴歸模型 (SUR)，去探討通脹狀況的特定組成部分及其它不利的宏觀經濟狀況如何影響美國銀行業內的績效動態。

實證證據暗示在被研究的各個不利宏觀經濟狀況中，通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性，對美國銀行業內的主要業績指標的約束影響, 與其它被探討的狀況相比，往往會較重大。相對地、本研究結果顯示通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性，對美國銀行業資本回報率的約束影響、往往遠多於資產收益率。研究結果進一步顯示，在被探討的三個銀行業績指標中，就本研究所探討的各個不利的宏觀經濟狀況而言，淨息差是脆弱性最小的銀行業績指標。

除了上述各實證結果外，本研究結果預期會給銀行業內機構間作戰略規劃的決定時提供資料，譬如，各項研究結果或可在制定旨在減少與特定業績指標如資本回報率相聯繫的脆弱性的政策和經營策略時提供資料。這脆弱性的減少，是透過嚴謹地研究各個業績指標，如何對在本研究中被探討的個別不利宏觀經濟狀況作出反應而達致的。這程序或許最終會幫助建立一個以減少各個不利宏觀經濟狀況對主要業績指標的影響為目的的量身定制措施／程序。本研究的結果，或許亦可為更多旨在減弱眾所周知的宏觀經濟狀況對銀行業運營效率的影響的適應性政策提供平台。

與文獻中可見的相關研究比較，本研究的獨特性源於其實證分析，是涉及在同一個構架內處理宏觀經濟狀況相互有關的組成部分的三個變體 (通脹狀況的不同變體) 。

This study aims to analyze the imbalances in the public finance structure of Pakistan’s economy and highlight the need for comprehensive reforms. Specifically, it aims to contribute to the empirical literature by analyzing the relationship between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies in Pakistan’s economy between 1971 and 2020.

The study develops an index of fiscal vulnerability, an index of financial stress and an index of macroeconomic policies. The fiscal vulnerability index is based on the patterns of fiscal indicators resulting from past trends of the selected variables in Pakistan’s economy. The financial stress in Pakistan is caused from the financial disorders that are acknowledged in the composite index, which is based on variables with the potential to indicate periods of stress stemming from the foreign exchange market, the securities market and the monetary policy components. The macroeconomic policies index is developed to analyze the mechanism through which fiscal vulnerability and financial stress have influenced macroeconomic policies in Pakistan. The causal association between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies is analyzed using the auto-regressive distributive lags approach.

There exists a long-run relationship between the three indices, and a bi-directional causality between fiscal vulnerability and macroeconomic policies.

This study contributes to the development of a fiscal monitoring mechanism, which has the basic purpose of analyzing the refinancing risk of public liabilities. Moreover, it focuses on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective. The study tries to develop a framework to assess fiscal vulnerability in light of “The Risk Octagon” theory, which focuses on three risk components: fiscal variables, macroeconomic-disruption-associated shocks and non-fiscal country-specific variables. The initial contribution of this work to the literature is to develop a framework (a fiscal vulnerability index, financial stress index and macroeconomic policies index) for effective and result-oriented macro-fiscal surveillance. Moreover, empirical literature emphasized and advised developing countries to develop their own capacity mechanisms to assess their fiscal vulnerability in light of the IMF guidelines regarding vulnerability assessments. This study thus attempts to fulfill the said gap identified in literature.

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

The study employs error correction autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model (ECM) to examine how micro-level variables influence volatility associated with corporate performance in the short run.

This paper finds that disaggregated or micro-level variables examined, tend to exhibit features that are not readily apparent from the aggregate variable from which such variables are derived. For instance, reported empirical estimate suggests that, growth in expenditures on services and nondurable goods tend to lower volatility associated with corporate performance, whereas government expenditures and expenditures on durable goods rather worsens volatility associated with corporate performance, all things being equal. Additionally, presented empirical estimates further provide evidence suggesting that macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty significantly moderate or influence the extent to which disaggregated variables impact corporate performance volatility.

Compared to related studies in the reviewed literature, this study rather examines volatility associated with corporate performance instead of the corporate performance indicator itself. Additionally, this paper also examines how disaggregated variable instead of aggregate variables impact such volatility. Finally, the moderating role of key macroeconomic conditions in such a relationship is also examined.

Trade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been analyzed from a variety of perspectives, including the loss of jobs in the USA due to Chinese imports, competition in high technology sectors and the balance of trade. Conceptual frameworks have employed models of domestic differences as well as models of international power distribution. Among domestic differences examined are the existence of state-owned enterprises in China compared to the domination of the USA economy by private firms, the large role of the Communist Party in China and the influence of labor and environmental and labor groups in the USA. Power distribution theories focus on the systemic effects of the distribution of power on trade openness and on the pattern of intra-bloc versus between-bloc trade. This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic policy factors in China and the USA, in particular, the role of national patterns of savings, investment and consumption (both private and government). The paper concludes that insofar as the balance of trade is an important component of the trade conflict, domestic macroeconomic factors continue to be important. The resolution of the conflict will have to take into account the respective macroeconomic policies of China and the USA.

The design is an analytic case study of US–China trade relations with a particular focus on the balance of trade. The conceptual framework employed involves an analysis of macroeconomic policy categories, especially the overall pattern of savings (household, firm and government), investment and consumption. Process tracing over time since China's membership in the WTO is carried out with an eye toward the relationship between the balance of trade and macroeconomic policy.

The main findings are that there is a strong relation between the respective macroeconomic policies of the USA and China and their trade relations. The domestic political economy of the USA encourages consumption and a low rate of savings. The opposite is true of China where household income is low by design and national savings are high. China depends on the USA to consume what is not consumed domestically. The USA depends on Chinese imports for additional consumption encouraged by its low rate of savings. The two economies are locked in a mutual dependence.

Key research implications are that there should be more focus on domestic macroeconomic policies since these are the root causes of the trade imbalance. This is not to say that trade frictions centering on jobs, subsidies and competition in high technology are unimportant. However, without the resolution of differences in the management of macroeconomic policies, trade conflicts between the USA and China will continue.

Practical implications are huge, in some ways much more important than the academic implications. Macroeconomic policy differences in savings, investment, government spending, taxation and infrastructure are important. Furthermore, there are available tools in both China and the USA to manage the macroeconomy, particularly, monetary and fiscal policy.

One implication of this paper is that satisfaction or dissatisfaction of workers is dependent on income distribution which in turn affects trade. Treatment of people in different socioeconomic categories, such as the elderly, the young, and those at working age are a function of macroeconomic policies.

Many people have written about macroeconomics. It is a conventional subfield of economics. The originality of this paper lies in its advocacy of a shift of focus and attention and in the argument that traditional macroeconomics is related to trade. Despite its importance, macroeconomics has not been the center of attention for most political scientists, though economists have made it more central.

The challenge of accessibility to adequate housing in several countries by a large percentage of citizens has given rise to different housing programs designed to facilitate access to affordable housing. In South Africa, the National Housing Finance Corporation (NHFC) was created to provides housing loans to low- and middle-income earners. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the implication of the macroeconomic risk elements on the performance of the NHFC incremental housing finance.

This study used a mixed-method approach to examine the time-series data of the NHFC over 17 years (2003–2020), relative to selected macroeconomic indicators. Additionally, this study analysed primary data from a 2022 survey of NHFC Executives.

This study found that incremental housing finance addresses a housing affordability gap, caters to disadvantaged groups, adapts to changing macroeconomic conditions and can mitigate default risk. It also finds that the performance of the NHFC’s incremental housing finance is premised on the behaviour of the macroeconomic elements that drive its strategy in South Africa.

Unlike previous works on housing finance, this case study of the NHFC considers the implication of macroeconomic trends when disbursing incremental housing finance to low- and middle-level income earners as a risk mitigation measure for the South African market. Its mixed method use of quantitative and qualitative data also allows a robust insight into trends that drive investment in incremental housing finance in South Africa.

This study aims to examine the short- and long-term equilibrium relationship between All share price index (ASPI), macroeconomic variables and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

Monthly time series data for inflation (CPI), industrial production (IP), an exchange rate (EX), an interest rate (TB), short-term interest rate (CD) and economic crisis were used from 2010 to 2021. The ADF test, the bound testing approach, the CUSUM test and the CUSUMQ test were used in this study.

The findings show a long-run stable relationship between stock price, macroeconomic variables and political crisis (i.e., CPI, IP, ER, TB, CD and economic crisis). The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is at least one cointegrating equation, indicating that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Sri Lanka.

The vector error correction estimates show that the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, indicating that a long-run dynamic relationship exists between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. In the short term, economic crisis has had a big effect on stock prices suggesting that Sri Lanka’s domestic financial markets are linked to the stability of the country.

This research establishes the links between stock returns, macroeconomic variables and economic crisis. So far, research has been unable to establish the empirical nature of such links. The authors believe that this paper fills that gap.