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This chapter estimates causality properties between real money demand and a number of determinants, that is, real output, the lending rate and the real exchange rate, across 10 Asian economies through linear and nonlinear causality methodologies spanning the period 1990–2012. The results document both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between monetary aggregates (M1 and M2) and their determinants for different country groups. The empirical findings exemplify the role of the demand for money as a policy tool and can provide useful policy recommendations to the Asian monetary authorities in their vision of forming a future monetary union.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Indonesia.

Using threshold model applied to Phillips curve equation.

Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, the econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effect of exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4 percent, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1 and 9.8 percent, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1 percent, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1-9.8 percent, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8 percent.

This research is using methodology proposed by Hansen which the threshold is based on the minimum SSR. The value of SSR will differ from one model to one model. For example, model using quarterly data will give the different result from that using monthly or yearly data. Also, when the author uses the new data, the result could be different.

Even though inflation targeting framework has been adopted by Bank Indonesia (BI) since 2005, BI should not disregard the monetary aggregate variable, especially M1. This is because the growth of money is still matter to influence inflation in the short run. The impact on inflation is found to be larger than the impact of exchange rate depreciation when it is below a certain threshold value.

This is the first paper that evaluates the threshold effect of exchange rate and money growth in emerging country, especially in Indonesia.

The relationship between a new measure of money, called the Rational Transactional Aggregate (RTA), and economic activity was investigated using annual and quarterly data in selected macroeconomic models from 1973–1990. For prediction purposes, the money demand function including RTA which used lagged output changes and lagged interest rates showed the most promise.

Attempts to prove, in this second chapter of the author’s monograph, that with a new research programme, it is possible to build a methodological bridge between economics and all other natural sciences and the scientists should address this challenge. Reviews basic principles that govern nature, including Einstein’s findings along with such luminaries as Copernicus, Newton, Galileo and Jeans. Concludes that the future is safe, as a new generation of scientists is now emerging in the East and the West, and that the new methodology should provide enough space for new roads, ideas and interpretations, which may occur in the future. Closes by saying a new spirit should be initiated in economics and transplanted into natural sciences.

Spray curing has become the preferred curing method for most cement concrete members because of its lower cost and sound effect. However, the spray curing quality of members is vulnerable to random variation environment factors and anthropogenic interferences. This paper aims to introduce the machine learning algorithm into the spray curing system to optimize its control method to improve the spray curing quality of members.

The critical parameters affecting the spray curing quality of members were collected through experiments, such as the temperature and humidity of the member's surface, the temperature, humidity and wind speed of the environment. The C4.5 algorithm was used as a weak classifier algorithm, and the AdaBoost.M1 algorithm was used to cascade multiple weak classifiers to form a robust classifier according to the collected data.

The results showed that the model constructed by the AdaBoost.M1 algorithm had achieved higher accuracy and robustness among the two algorithms. Based on the classification model built by the AdaBoost.M1 algorithm, the spray curing system can cause automatic decision-making spray switching according to the member's real-time curing state and environment.

With the classification model constructed by the AdaBoost.M1 algorithm, the spray curing system can overcome the disadvantages that external factors greatly influence the current control method of the spray curing system, and the intelligent control of the spray curing system was realized to a certain extent. This paper provides a reference for applying machine learning algorithms in the intellectual transformation of bridge construction equipment.

This paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.

The study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.

Cointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.

Results signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.

The paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

Studies the concept of the Cartesian composition of fuzzy finite state machines. Shows that fuzzy finite state machines and their Cartesian composition share many structural properties. Some of these properties are singly generated; retrievability, connectedness, strong connectedness, commutativity, perfection and state independence. Thus a fuzzy finite state machine which is a Cartesian composition of submachines can be studied in terms of smaller machines.

One of the most significant changes in monetary economics at the beginning of the twenty-first century has been the virtual disappearance of what was once a dominant focus, the role of money in monetary policy, and parallelly, the disappearance of the liquidity preference-money supply (LM) curve. Economists used to consider monetary policy with the help of the LM curve as part of the analytical framework which captures the demand for money. However, the workhorse model of modern monetary theory and policy, the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework, only comprises the dynamic investment-savings (IS) curve, the New Keynesian (NK) Phillips curve, and a monetary policy rule. The monetary policy rule is generally known as the Taylor rule. It relates the nominal interest rate to the output-gaps and inflation-gaps, but typically not to either the quantity or the growth rate of money. This change in the modern monetary model reflects how the central banks make monetary policy now. This study provides a detailed discussion on the role of money in monetary policy formulation in the context of the NK and the New Monetarist perspectives. The pros and cons of abandonment of money or the LM curve from monetary policy models have been discussed in detail.

There is a double crisis in modern science and in particular in physics and mechanics. Among others Einstein and Stephane Lupasco, in the 1930s, warned about this crisis. The Quantum Theory cannot be reconciled with the Relativity Theory. Specifically there is a gap (cleavage) between micro – and macro‐physics and mechanics. Parallel or beneath there is also a second crisis derived from a discontinuity (again a cleavage) between classical and modern science, that is between two previous revolutions. A new research programme of a simultaneous equilibrium versus disequilibrium approach, initially applied in economics has now been extended to include natural sciences. It is the question of a new, more comprehensive methodology which is actually a sui generis synthesis between classical and modern heritage. The rigorous application of the new research programme leads to the organisation of an Orientation Table, that is, a methodological map of all possible combinations (systems). The Table shows, without any exaggeration, a few revolutionary results. For instance, with the help of the Table, modern science or the second revolution (Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg) does not appear contradictory but rather complementary to classical science or the first revolution (Newton, Lavoisier). The Kuhnian thesis to the contrary is disproved and the second crisis is solved. With the help of the Universal Hypothesis of Duality (the basis of the Orientation Table), matter and energy, at the micro – and macro‐level, appear in a double form (the Principle of Duality): stable (equilibrium) particles and unstable (disequilibrium) waves. The strong interactions from modern physics are associated with the law of gravitation (attraction) or stable equilibrium which governs stable matter and energy. The weak interactions are associated with the law of disgravitation (dispersion or repulsion) including entropy or unstable equilibrium which governs unstable matter and energy. In this way the first crisis is also solved.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of monetary liquidity in house price evolution through examining the Asset (housing) Inflation channel. It identifies the main channels of transmission affecting house prices from monetary supply channels to house price change, examining how the Asset Price channel transmits changes in M1 to housing prices in Spain and the UK.

The paper uses Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Error Correction models to test the Asset Inflation channel in the UK and Spain from 1991 to 2013 in two steps. In the first step, the supply elasticity is estimated through the long-term relationship between house prices and stock supply. The second step estimates a Vector Error Correction (VEC) to explain house price dynamics conditioned on supply reactions. The latter is defined as a long-term inverse demand model where housing prices are controlled by fundamentals in each market. Models allow forecast testing using Choleski impulse responses methodology.

Several results are found. In the supply model, both countries show rapid convergence to equilibrium with a larger elasticity of supply in Spain than in the UK but with a short run effect of new supply on prices in the UK. Regarding the Asset Inflation Channel model, the paper finds evidence of the existence of a housing accelerator effect in Spain, but not in the UK where changes in liquidity fully impact house prices in one direction.

Implications of findings are mainly to forecast the effects of Monetary Policy measures in different economies.

The model supports the evaluation of different impacts of monetary policy in territories. It shows that the same policy will have different impacts in different housing markets and therefore highlights the importance of examining each market separately to identify the appropriate policy interventions.

This is the first paper that estimates the impact of the Asset Inflation Channel on house prices that endogenises housing market conditions and compares effects and interrelationships in two different economies.