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Weak-form rationality of fixed-event forecasts implies that forecast revisions should not be correlated. However, significant positive correlations between consecutive forecast revisions were found in most USDA forecasts for U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. This study developed a statistical procedure for correction of this inefficiency which takes into account the issue of outliers, the impact of forecast size and direction, and the stability of revision inefficiency. Findings suggest that the adjustment procedure has the highest potential for improving accuracy in corn, wheat, and cotton production forecasts.

We extend Vuong’s (1989) model-selection statistic to allow for complex survey samples. As a further extension, we use an M-estimation setting so that the tests apply to general estimation problems – such as linear and nonlinear least squares, Poisson regression and fractional response models, to name just a few – and not only to maximum likelihood settings. With stratified sampling, we show how the difference in objective functions should be weighted in order to obtain a suitable test statistic. Interestingly, the weights are needed in computing the model-selection statistic even in cases where stratification is appropriately exogenous, in which case the usual unweighted estimators for the parameters are consistent. With cluster samples and panel data, we show how to combine the weighted objective function with a cluster-robust variance estimator in order to expand the scope of the model-selection tests. A small simulation study shows that the weighted test is promising.

We show how to use a smoothed empirical likelihood approach to conduct efficient semiparametric inference in models characterized as conditional moment equalities when data are collected by variable probability sampling. Results from a simulation experiment suggest that the smoothed empirical likelihood based estimator can estimate the model parameters very well in small to moderately sized stratified samples.

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

This chapter investigates the effect of financial performance and corporate governance on market performance, using evidence from the companies listed on the IDX30 Index of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2015 to 2018. The authors use six main independent variables and one dependent variable, controlled by using control variables in the regression analysis. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression methods are used to model the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. The results show that the current ratio (CR) and Board Size (BS) have a significant negative effect on stock return (SR). In contrast, the quick ratio (QR) and debt to equity ratio (DER) have a significant positive impact on SR. Both the debt to asset ratio (DAR) and Independent Board of Commissioners (BOC) have an insignificant effect on SR. This evidence suggests that the CR, QR, DER, and BS are essential factors affecting SR.