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Article
Publication date: 10 December 2018

Saeed Solaymani

The global energy market has been facing lower prices of crude oil in recent years. Lower fuel price leads to lower transport cost and cheaper agricultural inputs (such as…

Abstract

Purpose

The global energy market has been facing lower prices of crude oil in recent years. Lower fuel price leads to lower transport cost and cheaper agricultural inputs (such as pesticides and chemical fertilizer), resulting in lower prices of agricultural commodities in the international markets. On the other hand, lower global oil price reduces the oil revenues of oil exporting countries, resulting in a decrease in government expenditures. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of lower global oil and agricultural commodity prices and government expenditure on the entire economy and poverty level of Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to investigate four simulation scenarios based on the latest Malaysia’s input-output table belonging to 2010. The first scenario is a 30 per cent fall in the export and import prices of agricultural commodity prices, while the second is a 50 per cent decline in the export and import prices of crude oil, and the third combines them. In the fourth scenario, government operating expenditure declines by 4 per cent because of the fall in government’s oil revenues as a result of the decline in global oil prices.

Findings

The simulation results suggest that lower international oil price decreases real gross domestic product (GDP) and investment in Malaysia and influences positively the output and employment of some agriculture sectors. However, lower agricultural commodity price increases real GDP and investment in the country and negatively influences the output, employment and exports of all agriculture sectors. The decline in government expenditures also increases the output and the employment in the economy, whereas it decreases household consumption. In conclusion, results show that the agriculture sector losses from the current decline in international agricultural commodity prices, while it benefits from lower oil and government expenditure.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this study is comparing the impacts of recent falls in global oil and agricultural prices on the entire economy and agriculture sector of Malaysia. Investigating the impacts of these issues on the poverty level of Malaysian households is another contribution to the study. Another contribution is analyzing the impact of a reduction in government expenditures because of the decline in global oil price on the economy and welfare of Malaysia. Therefore, this study makes a useful contribution to the small literature of the topic.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Modelling the Riskiness in Country Risk Ratings
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-837-8

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2020

Rui Wang and Hang (Robin) Luo

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the oil price–bank risk nexus by considering the heterogeneity of bank characters.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the oil price–bank risk nexus by considering the heterogeneity of bank characters.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper empirically tests the effect of oil price movements on bank credit risk by using a sample of 279 banks in the Middle East and North Africa countries from 2011 to 2017.

Findings

Authors find robust evidence that the credit risk of bank loan portfolios is negatively associated with increased oil prices. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of asset quality improvement brought about by rising oil prices is more salient in conventional banks, and banks with small size, low liquidity and whose funding source relies on customers’ deposits.

Practical implications

The results favor the diversification of bank funding sources, the improvement of a country’s financial development, the adoption of explicit deposit insurance and macroprudential policies, such as countercyclical liquidity buffers, to weaken the adverse impact of oil prices declines.

Originality/value

The present paper enriches the literature of oil price–bank risk nexus by analyzing the heterogeneity of bank characters and advances our knowledge on the determined factors of bank riskiness and vulnerability.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 18 October 2011

Lars Mjøset and Ådne Cappelen

Norway is a small nation state on the northernmost coastline of Western Europe, integrated in the Western world economy. For centuries Norway's integration in the world economy…

Abstract

Norway is a small nation state on the northernmost coastline of Western Europe, integrated in the Western world economy. For centuries Norway's integration in the world economy had been based on exports of raw materials such as fish and timber, as well as shipping services. In the early 20th century, furnace-based metals (made possible by cheap hydropower) were added to this export basket. Just as the world economy entered an increasingly unstable phase in 1970s, another natural resource was discovered in Norway: petroleum – that is, oil and natural gas from the North Sea. This chapter analyses the challenges and possibilities inherent in the Norwegian strategy of developing an oil economy in a world economic situation influenced by new and stronger forms of international integration through the four decades between 1970 and 2010.

Details

The Nordic Varieties of Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-778-0

Article
Publication date: 11 June 2018

Jimoh Olajide Raji, Rihanat Idowu Abdulkadir and Bazeet Olayemi Badru

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between Nigeria-US exchange rate (XR) and crude oil price (OILP) using daily data from 1 January 2001 to 31…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between Nigeria-US exchange rate (XR) and crude oil price (OILP) using daily data from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses alternative methods, including vector autoregressive-generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VAR-GARCH) within the framework of Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner model, constant conditional correlation (CCC)-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-GARCH models.

Findings

The results from the VAR-GARCH model indicate unidirectional cross-market mean spillovers from oil market (OILM) to foreign exchange market (FXM). In addition, the results show a positive effect of OILP on XR, suggesting that an increase in OILP appreciates Nigerian currency relative to US dollar and a fall in OILP depreciates it. The authors find that the effects of cross-volatility spillovers between the OILM and FXM are bidirectional. The CCC results indicate positive correlations of returns of 16 per cent between the FXM and OILM. Finally, the DCCs results indicate positive correlations between the two markets since the fourth quarter of 2008 (the world financial crisis period) until the recent period of world oil glut and slow demand for crude oil.

Research limitations/implications

Following the depreciation of the Nigerian currency vis-á-vis US dollar since the onset of the recent world oil glut and lower oil prices, Nigerian authorities should embark on subsidy reform, such as reduction in fuel subsidies. This may enable the release of fiscal resources that may be used to either rebuild fiscal space lost or finance investment in non-oil sectors in order to reduce overdependence on oil income. Lower fiscal revenues, coupled with the risk that crude oil maintains its low price for some time, imply that government should reduce its expenditure, and continue to draw on available accumulated funds from the excess crude account for some time until the real depreciation required for adjustment is achieved.

Originality/value

Studies on volatility spillovers between OILM and FXM are limited in the literature, particularly in Nigerian case. Moreover, the study employs different approaches for broader analysis. These alternative methods, a clear departure from the previous studies, provide comprehensive dynamic nature of the relationship between the FXM and OILM.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 April 2007

James A. Dalton and Louis Esposito

John McGee's 1958 paper, “Predatory Price Cutting: The Standard Oil (NJ) Case,” has had an astonishing influence on both antitrust policy in the United States and economic lore…

Abstract

John McGee's 1958 paper, “Predatory Price Cutting: The Standard Oil (NJ) Case,” has had an astonishing influence on both antitrust policy in the United States and economic lore. McGee argued that predatory pricing is irrational and his analysis of the Standard Oil Company Matter, decided in 1911, led him to conclude that the Record in this case does not show that Standard Oil engaged in predatory pricing. This single publication appears to serve as a foundation of the U.S. Supreme Court's position on the issue of predatory pricing, as well as the assertion by many economists that predatory pricing is irrational and rarely occurs.

Numerous arguments have been advanced during the past 25 years that predatory pricing can be a rational strategy. As to McGee's empirical findings, there has been no re-examination of the Record of the Standard Oil case to determine the validity of his finding that the trial “Record” does not support the claim that Standard Oil engaged in predatory pricing.

We examined this Record and have found that the trial Record contains considerable evidence of predatory pricing by Standard Oil. Therefore, the Record does not support McGee's conclusion that Standard Oil did not engage in predatory pricing.

Thus, the decisions of the Supreme Court in recent years, as well as the opinions of many economists, concerning predatory pricing are not consistent with either current theory or the empirical record.

Details

Research in Law and Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-7623-1348-8

Article
Publication date: 19 May 2023

Saeed Moshiri and Elham Kheirandish

Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic…

Abstract

Purpose

Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries.

Findings

The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries.

Research limitations/implications

One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies.

Practical implications

Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil.

Social implications

The recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary.

Originality/value

While the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2018

Assil El Mahmah and Magda Kandil

Given the persistence of low oil prices and the continued shrinking of government revenues, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries continue to adapt to the new normal of the oil

Abstract

Purpose

Given the persistence of low oil prices and the continued shrinking of government revenues, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries continue to adapt to the new normal of the oil price environment, with a focus on pressing ahead with subsidies’ reforms and measures to increase non-oil revenues, as well as accelerating debt issuance, which raise concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications on macroeconomic stability.

Design/methodology/approach

The purpose of this paper is to examine the sustainability of fiscal policy in GCC by exploring governments’ reaction to rising public debt accumulation via the estimation of a fiscal reaction function to higher debt. Subsequently, the paper compares the obtained results with other similar and non-similar groups, in terms of economic structures and oil dependency, to understand how some macroeconomic factors affect differently the fiscal policy responses, in a context of oil price shocks and high price volatility.

Findings

The results show that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, which means that GCC are increasing the pace of reforms and the fiscal primary balance as they issue more debt to ensure a sustainable fiscal policy. The evidence is consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort, but at lower debt levels, countries still have the space to increase spending without jeopardizing debt sustainability as long as they remain committed to fiscal reforms to increase the primary balance. The evidence supports the notion that the region’s public finances have improved in response to recent fiscal adjustments. However, national experiences differ considerably, especially given variation in the fiscal breakeven prices against the new normal of low oil prices. Moreover, the findings reveal that various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth, openness and the oil price, were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. The combined effects of low oil prices and high degree of openness warrant further efforts to reform the budget to increase the primary balance while safeguarding priority spending tomobilize non-energy growth and ensure debt sustainability in GCC.

Originality/value

Given recent experiences and the “low for long” oil price, policy priorities and reforms are necessary in oil-dependent economies, including GCC, to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. Sustaining the momentum of non-energy growth would reduce continued dependency of GCC economies on oil revenues and fiscal spending in the medium-term, creating a bigger scope for private sector participation in economic activity and increasing the prospects of further diversification away from long dependency on oil price volatility and their adverse implications on the fiscal budget and economic cycles.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 1 May 2015

This would feed an already oversupplied market, exacerbating the contango market structure, with prices for future delivery exceeding spot rates. Prices have not returned to their…

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