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Long-term interest rates of small open economies (SOE) correlate strongly with the USA long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the United States? An estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the UK (vis-á-vis the USA) establishes three structural empirical results: (1) Comovement arises due to nominal fluctuations, not through real rates or term premia; (2) the cause of comovement is the central bank of the SOE accommodating foreign inflation trends, rather than systematically curbing them; and (3) SOE may find themselves much more affected by changes in USA inflation trends than the United States itself. All three results are shown to be intuitive and backed by off-model evidence.

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

This study aims to explore the use of time series analyses to examine changes in travelers’ preferences in accommodation features by disentangling seasonal, trend and the COVID-19 pandemic’s once-off disruptive effects.

Longitudinal data are retrieved by online traveler reviews (n = 519,200) from the Canary Islands, Spain, over a period of seven years (2015 to 2022). A time series analysis decomposes the seasonal, trend and disruptive effects of six prominent accommodation features (view, terrace, pool, shop, location and room).

Single accommodation features reveal different seasonal patterns. Trend analyses indicate long-term trend effects and short-term disruption effects caused by Covid-19. In contrast, no long-term effect of the pandemic was found.

The findings stress the need to address seasonality at the single accommodation feature level. Beyond targeting specific features at different guest groups, new approaches could allow dynamic price optimization. Real-time insight can be used for the targeted marketing of platform providers and accommodation owners.

A novel application of a time series perspective reveals trends and seasonal changes in travelers’ accommodation feature preferences. The findings help better address travelers’ needs in P2P offerings.

This paper examines trends in local government revenues and current challenges that local governments face in raising revenue. We alsolook into the future in an effort to make recommendations to localgovernments regarding their revenue structure. Important trends that wedocument include a long-term decline in the property tax and an increase inboth state aid and user charges. Recent economic changes present seriouschallenges for local governments due to volatility of sales taxes, decreasesin property values, and threats to state aid. As local governments shape theirrevenue structure, they will need to respond to external economic,technological and demographic changes. Only user charges offer hopefulprospects as a productive revenue source.

Current economic conditions have identified a complication if not conflict in the application of valuation analysis assumptions with the free fall in asset prices observed since 2007. Discrepancies in debt obligations (from prior periods) with underlying collateral value have been opined to be an unforeseen anomaly. This investigation aims to observe an alternative perspective using data from 1900 to the present.

This 110‐year period of observation shows that return (value) volatility is the characteristic norm of the market system. Showing volatility as a fundamental characteristic of economic and property performance supports conjecture by definition, observation and rationality that valuation analysis had to be successfully employed in prior down cycles and across divergent economic regimes. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify the application of specific value theory, premises and concepts with appropriate valuation techniques in given economic regimes. The variables derived from the literature and practices observed and designated as operating across time emphasizing recorded recessions are then tested for statistically significant associations using χ² tests.

The findings show that traditional value techniques are successfully applied in stabilized and even accelerated growth periods, but weaken and even break down during down markets. Alternative approaches and techniques are emphasized and developed during these periods that address specific problems but are befitting more general issues. The alternative perspectives are then observed to operate, generating much debate for extended periods. They are then incorporated as orthodox or disappear as issues. This study identifies a statistical link between the economic and valuation concerns of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current Great Recession of 2007‐2009. The more relevant finding, however, is that the period following the depression of the 1930s, which shows a period characterized as using innovation and alternative valuation techniques, was continued into a period that ran from the 1950s into the mid‐1990s. This was a period of stabilization, at least into the early 1980s. The deregulation of the 1980s generated a period of fewer cycles but major magnitude shifts in the less frequent measures of volatility. Unfortunately, the sophistication in debate concerning valuation procedure and valuation premises, as statistically measured, declined from the 1990s into the present period. The present economy reflects statistical measures similar to those observed from 1900‐1930.

Given the 110 years considered in the study, the findings should not be considered original with regard to assisting the general welfare or professional decision making. However, given that the market shifted from being a useful institution to assist in the allocation and distribution of property to being a religious caveat that could only result in perfect solutions to solve all social needs, wants and ills, the findings emphasizing valuation techniques based on rational value premises that can operate to assist inference of future events subject to divergent and cyclical operations might be calmed to offer very useful assistance with procedure based on fundamentals and expression of behaviour that has long been vilified. The uses of the patterns identified in this study need to be incorporated into causal analysis.

The purpose of this paper is twofold, first, to develop an effective tool to assess the performance of the overall economy by creating an assessment ratio that reflects the two top priorities of monetary policy, promoting economic growth and maintaining price stability, and second, to use the annual assessment ratios to build two subsamples, outperformance (better than the historical average) and underperformance, to examine and compare the changes in impacts of monetary and fiscal policy tools on important economic variables in different economic conditions, instead of different time periods.

The assessment ratio is defined as the gross domestic product (GDP) gap/standard deviation of inflation. Essentially, this Growth/Volatility ratio quantifies the price volatility-adjusted long-term output growth, that is, the long-term output growth given 1 per cent of the standard deviation of inflation. The growth has a positive impact on the ratio, while the effect of price volatility is negative. The ratio reflects not only the Fed’s dual goal but also the fundamental economic conditions. A higher value of the ratio indicates that the economy can better handle inflation risk in driving the long-term output growth. As the inflation level is adjusted in the numerator (GDP gap), not the denominator, no matter the Fed is engaging in the fight against inflation, or for reflation (promoting inflation) to prevent deflation and pursue price stability (Bernanke, 2002), the ratio remains consistent with the Fed’s dual goal and prefers a higher value.

Results of this study suggest that impacts of monetary and fiscal policy tools on key economic variables may be cyclic as the economic condition changes. The policy tools can significantly affect inflation volatility and the price volatility-adjusted long-term real output growth in the subpar economic conditions identified with lower assessment ratios. The effects become insignificant when the general economic performance exceeds the historical average. More importantly, results of this study indicate that the funds rate can effectively lower the price volatility, while the fiscal tools can promote long-term real output growth in the subpar economic conditions. Therefore, when inflation volatility spikes and the real output growth slows, the decisive and timely monetary and fiscal policy decisions become necessary to enhance policy effectiveness.

The assessments of effectiveness of monetary policy in the literature are based on some or all of four descriptive statistics: inflation, inflation volatility, output growth, and growth volatility. Each of them measures only one aspect of an economic phenomenon and cannot reflect the well-known conflicting relationship between maintaining price stability and promoting economic growth. For instance, from the policy perspective, a higher price volatility combined with a higher GDP growth rate for one period may or may not outperform another period with lower price volatility and growth rate. However, the assessment ratio created in this study considers both price volatility and economic growth simultaneously and can, therefore, be used as an effective measure of the overall economic performance.

Companies spend millions on training their sales representatives. Thousands of textbooks have been published; thousands of training videos have been recorded. Hundreds of good pieces of advice and tips for sales representatives have been presented along with hundreds of sales methods and techniques. Probably the largest number of indicators and measures are applied in sales and distribution. On the one hand, this is a result of the fact that sales provide revenue and profit to a company; on the other hand, the concept of management by objectives turns out to be most effective in regional sales teams with reference to sales representatives and methods of performance evaluation. As a result, a whole array of indices has been created which enable the evaluation of sales representatives’ work and make it possible to manage goods distribution in a better way.

The indices presented in this chapter are rooted in the consumer market and are applied most often to this type of market (particularly in relation to fast-moving consumer goods at the level of retail trade). Nevertheless, many of them can be used on other markets (services, means of production) and at other trade levels (wholesale).

Although the values of many indices presented herein are usually calculated by market research agencies and delivered to companies in the form of synthetic results, we have placed the emphasis on the ability to determine them independently, both in descriptive and exemplifying terms. We consider it important to understand the genesis of indices and build the ability to interpret them on that basis. What is significant is that the indices can be interpreted differently; the same index may provide a different assessment of a product’s, brand or company’s position in the market depending on the parameters taken into account. Therefore, we strive to show a certain way of thinking rather than give ready-made recipes and cite ‘proven’ principles. Sales and distribution are dynamic phenomena, and limiting them within the framework of ‘one proper’ interpretation would be an intellectual abuse.

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the popularity of discount stores and the aggregate business cycle: Does discounters' market share go up during economic contractions and go down during economic expansions? Does the aggregate business cycle contribute to the long-term growth of discounters' success? Does the relationship between discounters and the economy differ across discounter types, namely hard versus soft discounters?

The study will consider the relationship between discounters' market share and the aggregate economy between 1991 and 2008 for 15 Western European countries. Moreover, aggregated data is provided for the Western European region as a whole, which distinguishes hard from soft discounters' share. Recent time-series techniques are used to disentangle the temporary versus permanent effects of economic contractions on discounters' share.

The aggregate business cycle induces temporary upward and downward swings in discounters' market share. Moreover, part of the increase in discounters' share during an economic contraction remains beyond the contraction, resulting in a permanent boost in discounters' popularity. Same substantive findings are found for each discount type (i.e. hard and soft).

In economic contraction years the growth rate of both hard and soft discounters accelerates, leaving permanent scars on the performance levels of traditional retailers. Discounters should try to further enhance their increased popularity when the economy turns sour. Traditional retailers, on the other hand, should try to prevent consumers from switching to discounters during contractions. Future research should explore the strategies that are called for in order to do this.

Discounters are the fastest growing grocery format in Europe. Traditional retailers can no longer afford to ignore them. As such, a better understanding of the drivers of this growth is called for. This study highlights one of the potential drivers, namely the economic climate, a driver that is widely discussed in the business press with substantial implications for grocery channel management.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of monetary liquidity in house price evolution through examining the Asset (housing) Inflation channel. It identifies the main channels of transmission affecting house prices from monetary supply channels to house price change, examining how the Asset Price channel transmits changes in M1 to housing prices in Spain and the UK.

The paper uses Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Error Correction models to test the Asset Inflation channel in the UK and Spain from 1991 to 2013 in two steps. In the first step, the supply elasticity is estimated through the long-term relationship between house prices and stock supply. The second step estimates a Vector Error Correction (VEC) to explain house price dynamics conditioned on supply reactions. The latter is defined as a long-term inverse demand model where housing prices are controlled by fundamentals in each market. Models allow forecast testing using Choleski impulse responses methodology.

Several results are found. In the supply model, both countries show rapid convergence to equilibrium with a larger elasticity of supply in Spain than in the UK but with a short run effect of new supply on prices in the UK. Regarding the Asset Inflation Channel model, the paper finds evidence of the existence of a housing accelerator effect in Spain, but not in the UK where changes in liquidity fully impact house prices in one direction.

Implications of findings are mainly to forecast the effects of Monetary Policy measures in different economies.

The model supports the evaluation of different impacts of monetary policy in territories. It shows that the same policy will have different impacts in different housing markets and therefore highlights the importance of examining each market separately to identify the appropriate policy interventions.

This is the first paper that estimates the impact of the Asset Inflation Channel on house prices that endogenises housing market conditions and compares effects and interrelationships in two different economies.