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Article

Ghalib M. Baqir

The “re‐industrialisation” of America is the dominant topic today. It has come about because the United States economy did not live up to its expectations during the…

Abstract

The “re‐industrialisation” of America is the dominant topic today. It has come about because the United States economy did not live up to its expectations during the decade of the 1970s. As to what has caused such low economic performance, many speculations have been advanced, such as big government, high taxes, monetary maladjustments, the energy shortages, the high prices of energy, etc. However, one group of economists have attributed the dismal economic performance during the 1970s to the phenomenon of the “longwave cycles”. This cycle is also called the Kondratieff cycle, and occurs at intervals of forty to sixty years in a socio‐economic system resembling that of capitalism. According to the proponents of this theory since the last part of the eighteenth century, industrial capitalism has exhibited long waves of cyclical fluctuation in income, employment and prices. These economists believe that the “longwave cycles” are what have underlined recent United States economic ills.

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International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 8 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

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Article

Cornelis van Dorsser and Poonam Taneja

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

Findings

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

Research limitations/implications

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

Practical implications

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

Social implications

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

Originality/value

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article

Jay W. Forrester

The discussion in this paper addresses issues that should become part of the current politically popular debate about reindustrializing America. Why is there a perceived…

Abstract

The discussion in this paper addresses issues that should become part of the current politically popular debate about reindustrializing America. Why is there a perceived need to reindustrialize? Why are innovation and productivity‐faltering? I believe it is because old technologies are now being pushed beyond their level of maximum contribution, and because the radically new technologies of the future have not yet found their proper places in the fabric of society.

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Planning Review, vol. 8 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0094-064X

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Article

Chris Papenhausen

Previous research on institutional change has largely ignored its cyclical nature. This paper aims to introduce a four‐phase cyclical model of long‐term institutional change.

Abstract

Purpose

Previous research on institutional change has largely ignored its cyclical nature. This paper aims to introduce a four‐phase cyclical model of long‐term institutional change.

Design/methodology/approach

The recurrent patterns of the model have been identified from previous technological revolutions and their accompanying surges of development. The model also incorporates generational theory as a driver of institutional change.

Findings

The model predicts that a multi‐year institutional crisis is currently underway that has important implications for practitioners. The paper also describes proposed solutions to the current crisis.

Originality/value

The model developed synthesizes disparate institutional theories to build a new explanation for long‐term economic development.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Abstract

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Applied Technical Analysis for Advanced Learners and Practitioners
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-633-8

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Article

Ghodrat Ebadi, Aida Mojaver, Sachin Kumar and Anjan Biswas

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integrability studies to the long-short wave equation that is studied in the context of shallow water waves. There are several…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integrability studies to the long-short wave equation that is studied in the context of shallow water waves. There are several integration tools that are applied to obtain the soliton and other solutions to the equation. The integration techniques are traveling waves, exp-function method, G′/G-expansion method and several others.

Design/methodology/approach

The design of the paper is structured with an introduction to the model. First the traveling wave hypothesis approach leads to the waves of permanent form. This eventually leads to the formulation of other approaches that conforms to the expected results.

Findings

The findings are a spectrum of solutions that lead to the clearer understanding of the physical phenomena of long-short waves. There are several constraint conditions that fall out naturally from the solutions. These poses the restrictions for the existence of the soliton solutions.

Originality/value

The results are new and are sharp with Lie symmetry analysis and other advanced integration techniques in place. These lead to the connection between these integration approaches.

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International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow, vol. 25 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0961-5539

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Article

J. Lockwood Taylor

IN R. & M. 1679 and AIRCRAFT ENGINEERING, December, 1935, the author gave certain expressions for the stable loads which a stiffened‐skin panel, flat or curved, was…

Abstract

IN R. & M. 1679 and AIRCRAFT ENGINEERING, December, 1935, the author gave certain expressions for the stable loads which a stiffened‐skin panel, flat or curved, was capable of carrying without collapse by buckling. As regards the curved panel, it was there implicitly assumed that waving over relatively long lengths was impossible, because of the presence of rigid bulkheads or similar supports at intervals. While this will normally be the case in practice, it may happen that in some part of the structure a long length of panel remains without support other than that given to it by the ordinary frames and stringers. As this will tend to reduce the buckling load, it seems desirable to complete the theory to include the case of buckling in long waves.

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Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 11 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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Article

A.M. Abd-Alla, S.M. Abo-Dahab, Roqia Ateeq and Moaiad A. Khder

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the wave propagation of wave in an infinite poroelastic cylindrical bone. The dynamic behavior of a wet long bone that has been…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the wave propagation of wave in an infinite poroelastic cylindrical bone. The dynamic behavior of a wet long bone that has been modeled as a piezoelectric hollow cylinder of crystal class 6 is investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

An exact closed form solution is presented by employing an analytical procedure. The frequency equation for poroelastic bone is obtained when the boundaries are stress free and is examined numerically.

Findings

The study of wave propagation over a continuous medium is of practical importance in the field of engineering, medicine and bio-engineering. Application of the poroelastic materials in medicinal fields such as orthopedics, dental and cardiovascular is well known. In orthopedics, wave propagation over bone is used in monitoring the rate of fracture healing. There are two types of osseous tissue, such as cancellous or trabecular and compact or cortical bone, which are of different materials, with respect to their mechanical behavior.

Originality/value

The frequencies are calculated for poroelastic bone for various values for different values of rotation, angular velocity and density. In wet bone little velocity dispersion was observed, in contrast to the results of earlier studies on wet bone. Large values of attenuation were observed. Such a model would in particular be useful in large-scale parametric studies of bone mechanical response.

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Multidiscipline Modeling in Materials and Structures, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1573-6105

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Article

Justin Deats, Michael Martinez, Robert Shearer and William Shearer

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between the number of waves a surfer will catch, the surfer’s characteristics, and the surf conditions; and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between the number of waves a surfer will catch, the surfer’s characteristics, and the surf conditions; and utilize this relationship to explain wave allocation strategies chosen by surfers.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed a discrete event simulation to model surfers at a well-known surf break in Southern California. Several experimental designs were implemented in the simulation to measure the effect of a surfer’s characteristics and surf conditions on waves caught; and compare different wave allocation strategies.

Findings

The number of waves that a surfer will catch is largely dependent upon the surfer’s skill level and the wave allocation strategy used at the surf break. Common wave allocation strategies fail with large crowds.

Originality/value

This study is the first to model the entire lineup at a surf break, providing quantitative insights into why surfers choose different wave allocation strategies.

Details

Sport, Business and Management: An International Journal, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-678X

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Book part

Fanny Coulomb, Liliane Bensahel-Perrin and Jacques Fontanel

The issue of the link between wars and economic cycles and the sense of the causality has given rise to many economic studies. The statistical works of N. D…

Abstract

The issue of the link between wars and economic cycles and the sense of the causality has given rise to many economic studies. The statistical works of N. D. Kondratiev11Kondratiev (1935). This paper is a synthetic presentation of Kondratiev's works during the 1920s. in the 1930s, showing the existence of long economic cycles regulating capitalism, have contributed much to the economic cycles' theory. This analysis based on the observation of long-term economic changes in GDP growth rates and/or price levels shows some rising and declining phases, as well as reversal points of the cycles. Among the most easily identifiable phenomena are the following: the economic crisis of the 1930s, the post–Second World War growth period, and the economic crisis that started in the 1970s. However, as shown by a study of Tylecote, A. (1992). History as a forecasting tool: The future of the European economy in a long-wave/long-cycle perspective. Review of Political Economy, 4(2), 226–248. The long economic cycles are less identifiable for the period 1850–1930, unless the disruptive effects of the American Civil War and First World War are considered: their recessive and then reflationary effects would have disrupted the rising and declining phases. But some analyses present war as being a central factor in long-term economic changes.

Modelski, G. (1987). Long cycles in world politics. London: Macmillan of long cycles had become very famous in the 1980s. It identifies cycles of 100–120 years, starting with an exceptionally long global war (it may also be a more discontinuous phase of war, like the two world wars) and giving rise to a new dominant power. Its technological and commercial domination permits keeping an uncontested supremacy, until some competing powers start to erode it. However, this theory does not focus on the links between major wars and long-term economic changes.

This issue having been largely studied in the past, the first part of the paper will present a review of these analyses. Then in the second part, it will ask if these ideas may help in predicting future major economic crises and related international conflicts. It is a delicate task, as it is as difficult to show subsequently a link between economic cycles and major wars as to predict future cyclical phenomena on the world economic and political scene.

Details

Frontiers of Peace Economics and Peace Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-701-8

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