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Existing research has theoretically modeled conditional correlations between the long-term interest rates as a function of macroeconomic variable. In line with it, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether conditional correlations can be a new signal to predict recessions. Furthermore, this paper also tries to investigate among the four factors – the time difference of the beginning and the end of recessions, financial integration (FI), and trade integration (TI) – which factors drive the direction of change in conditional correlations. Finally, this paper is to explain the implication for Korea trade.

This study uses a probit regression model for 33 country during the period from 1972 to 2015. To measure the time-varying interest rates conditional correlations, a VAR(1)-DBEKK-GARCH(1,1) model is adopted due to its statistical advantages. Furthermore, the authors also construct the four measures – time difference of the beginning of recessions (BEG), time difference of the end of recessions (END), FI, and TI. The authors first study the predictive power of correlations in both in and out-samples test, and study which factors determine the different behavior of interest rate co-movements using the four measures.

The empirical results show that the conditional correlations between the long-term interest rates of the USA and individual countries contain information about recessions a few quarters ahead which term spreads of neither individual countries nor the USA conveyed in. However, there is a heterogeneity of the significance and direction of interest rate correlations. A further research reveals that especially the heterogeneous degree of TI leads to the different overlapped recession period of individual countries with the USA, resulting in heterogeneous behavior of interest rates among countries.

As a limitation of this paper, the forecasting power of interest rate correlations is not always significant in all countries. Despite this, the study has a profound implication that for those countries where the US accounts for the high proportion of trade, increase in conditional correlations can be a signal for future recessions. Especially, given a considerable portion of trade in GDP and the more sensitive trade activity of Korea to a contagious recession than a domestic recession, the conditional correlation measure is particularly useful for Korean policy makers.

Although many papers model interest rate co-movement as a function of macroeconomic condition, this paper provides the first evidence to show interest rate co-movement precede the macro shocks empirically. Furthermore, this paper determines the precise channel through which TI affects the time-varying behavior of interest rate co-movements before recessions.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the range of realignment strategies employed by retailers in the USA in response to the 2008 economic recession.

Following the grounded theory approach, National Retail Federation News Briefs published between 2008 and 2011 were analyzed by sorting them into thematic categories and comparing trends in strategic decisions during the recession (2008-2009) and after the recession (2010-2011). Based on the emergent categories, propositions were developed to provide theoretical explanations of the findings.

The authors found five thematic categories of realignment strategies: promotional, organizational, price, operational, and product realignments. In line with contingency theories, retailers used these strategies to achieve a greater fit with the altered business environment and consumer consumption patterns. While promotional realignment was most prevalent, followed by organizational realignment, different realignment strategies were pursued based on the strategic focus and long-term vs short-term orientation of the retailers.

The contribution of the findings is twofold: filling a critical gap in the literature examining the range of realignment decisions of the US retail industry in response to the recent economic recession; and enhancing the theoretical understanding of underlying factors or mechanisms of specific realignment decisions in the context of a turbulent economic environment.

The history of business is full of ups and downs. The present (or past?) recession is worrying many businesses and people. Indications are that corporations and management have more to learn from this recession than from prior recessions. For one thing, increasing global competition has made business survival more difficult than before. Under the new conditions, many of the old ways of dealing with recessions or downturns cannot work; they may even debilitate firms using them. New means of surviving economic banes need to be considered. Examines some of those means, in particular: planning, cost‐cutting strategies, core strategy versus diversification, re‐structuring, post‐restructuring, and some positive aspects of an economic downturn.

This paper investigates the relationship between labour hoarding practices and training investments during severe economic downturns focusing on the case of Italy during the Great Recession.

Data come from the 2010 Italian wave of Continuing Vocational Training Survey (CVTS). Econometric estimates plug a proxy of labour hoarding into the probability function that firms provide either off-the-job or on-the-job training. A bivariate selectivity probit model is also used for robustness sake.

Results show that labour hoarding should not be considered as an enhancer of training investments when considered as a standing-alone practice in presence of severe and deep economic downturn. However, labour hoarding does not penalize off-the-job training investments if it occurs in an innovative firm or in a firm that perceive specific skill requirements in the workforce during the recessionary period.

The paper contributes to the debate on the role of labour hoarding during severe recessions by showing that it cannot be functional to re-oriented firms’ investments aimed at upskilling their workforce. It is only compatible with new training courses that accompany the workforce across a technological transition. Policy implications deals with the suitability of job retention schemes or state-financed furlough during recessions, as occurred during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

This paper aims to provide lessons from the emergence of the sharing economy after the 2008 recession and helps managers prepare more effectively for recessions in the future.

In this conceptual paper, the authors build on research on the sharing economy and study the best practices contributing to the sharing economy’s emergence and growth after the 2008 recession. The authors identify the key characteristics of this new economic sector and share lessons that can be used by other companies.

The authors recommend five major takeaways: seeking a more flexible supply; actively watching the trends; leveraging customers like employees; using advanced data science and technology like the sharing economy companies; and proactively avoiding panicked responses. This will help companies succeed during recessionary times – and the boom times that follow.

This is the first paper that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, investigates the interplay between the sharing economy and recession and highlights practical lessons.

This study aims to explore the economic impact of the Great Recession on consumers' economic attitudes and behaviors.

Data were collected through a questionnaire completed by 2,120 subjects. Eight propositions involving six constructs (i.e. “recessionary impact on others”, “economic knowledge”, “economic concerns”, “recessionary resignation” (as antecedents) and “financial prudence” and “propensity to postpone major purchases” (as outcomes)) and five consumer (age and gender) cohorts were tested through structural equation modeling.

Ten relationships, each grounded in behavioral economics theory, were tested. Nine were statistically significant. But unexpectedly, two significant relationships were negative. Specifically, their perceptions of “recessionary impact on others” and “economic concern” influenced consumers' financial prudence and major purchase postponement. As predicted, consumers' “recessionary resignation” influenced them to postpone major purchases, but did not impact their financial prudence. “Economic concerns” negatively influenced financial prudence, but failed to influence postponement. Financial prudence influenced propensity to postpone major purchases. Age status significantly influenced financial prudence and postponement, but only among the youngest (less than 29 years) and oldest (45+) cohorts. Results revealed the more women knew about the economy, the more inclined they were to postpone major purchases. Older women, in particular, were prone to recessionary resignation. Interestingly, the condition encouraged older women to be less financially prudent. Theoretical explanations for unexpected relationships are offered.

Managerial recommendations for promoting and positioning products during or in the immediate aftermath of recessionary situations are developed.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of an economic recession on human resource information systems (HRIS) investment decisions by asking: Are there high levels of disinvestment in HRIS during a recession? Are there low levels of trust and confidence in HRIS during a recession? Could there be an absence of concerted commitment in leveraging technology, even in the face of an economic crunch?

An HRIS impact questionnaire was used, targeting human resource and financial managers. The data obtained were analyzed using Statistical Programme for Social Sciences (SPSS).

The findings suggest that while a recession is acknowledged, the continued use of HRIS is not considered a risk factor that warrants cost cutting.

This is an original study. It will add value by indicating to management the significance of strategic decision making. The study also points out the need for further research in order to make more sense of certain variables.

Introduction: Studies on the insurance sector/companies have, in recent years, taken their place in literature at an increasing rate. Especially after the 2008 global financial crisis, the need for people to ensure their assets has structurally changed both the transaction volume and the yield structure of insurance sector. The increase in demand for insurance has also increased the appetite of investors to make an investment on this sector. The transaction volume of the insurance sector has increased year by year coupled with the number of insurance companies traded on the stock exchanges has started to increase in the same direction.

Aim: This chapter aims to determine the return structure of the Borsa Istanbul Insurance Index (XSGRT) based on daily closing values.

Method: Markedly with similar studies in the literature review, the authors determined that the Markov Regime Switching (MRS) model is the best-suited model for the current research. It was applied for the data set of XSGRT Index from 1997 to 2020.

Results: The result shows that XSGRT has three regimes named as expansion regime, normal regime and recession regime. Subsequently, it has been determined that the index generally attends to transition from the recession regime to the expansion regime and normal regime. This outcome is statistically significant at a 5% significance level and confirmed by backtesting results. Likewise, the duration of the recession regime is longer than the normal and expansion regime.

Conclusion: Despite the fact that the XSGRT has not yet completed its development compared to other main and sectoral indices, it is one of the indices that offer attractive earnings for investors. To put it differently, the desire of insurance companies to stay longer totally in the normal and expansion period and their immediate exit from the recession period provides them with a significant competitive advantage in contrast to other indices.

Originality/Value: This research contributes to the literature by providing additional evidence for existing studies using the longer duration of data set and applying the MRS model for Insurance Index. Best of our knowledge, it is the first study that examines the return structure of XSGRT based on its daily closing values from 1997 to 2020. In essence, investors can use the result of this study and compare it with other stock indices to make the accurate investment decision to maximise their welfare and return on their equity investments. The authors suggest that not only the return but also the regime structures of the invested shares (indices) should be taken into account for investment decisions.

Soon after the Lehman crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) surprised its critics with a reconsideration of its research and advice on fiscal policy. The paper traces the influence that the Fund’s senior management and research elite has had on the recalibration of the IMF’s doctrine on fiscal policy. The findings suggest that overall there has been some selective incorporation of unorthodox ideas in the Fund’s fiscal doctrine, while the strong thesis that austerity has expansionary effects has been rejected. Indeed, the Fund’s new orthodoxy is concerned with the recessionary effects of fiscal consolidation and, more recently, endorses calls for a more progressive adjustment of the costs of fiscal sustainability. These changes notwithstanding, the IMF’s adaptive incremental transformation on fiscal policy issues falls short of a paradigm shift and is best conceived of as an important recalibration of the precrisis status quo.