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Fluctuations in the tender price index have an adverse effect on the construction sector and the economy at large. This is largely due to the positive relationship that exists between the construction industry and economic growth. The consequences of these variations include cost overruns and schedule delays, among others. An accurate forecast of the tender price index is good for controlling the uncertainty associated with its variation. In the present study, the efficacy of using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for tender price forecasting is investigated. In addition, the Box–Jenkins model, which is considered a benchmark technique, was used to evaluate the performance of the ANFIS model. The results demonstrate that the ANFIS model is superior to the Box–Jenkins model in terms of the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. The ANFIS could provide an accurate and reliable forecast of the tender price index in the medium term (i.e. over a three-year period). This chapter provides evidence of the advantages of applying nonlinear modelling techniques (such as the ANFIS) to tender price index forecasting. Although the proposed ANFIS model is applied to the tender price index in this study, it can also be applied to a wider range of problems in the field of construction engineering and management.

The malfunction variables of power stations are related to the areas of weather, physical structure, control and load behaviour. To predict temporal power failure is difficult due to their unpredictable characteristics. As high accuracy is normally required, the estimation of failures of short-term temporal prediction is highly difficult. This study presents a method for converting stochastic behaviour into a stable pattern, which can subsequently be used in a short-term estimator. For this conversion, K-means clustering is employed, followed by Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithms are used to perform the Short-term estimation. The environment, the operation and the generated signal factors are all simulated using mathematical models. Weather parameters and load samples have been collected as part of a data set. Monte-Carlo simulation using MATLAB programming has been used to conduct experimental estimation of failures. The estimated failures of the experiment are then compared with the actual system temporal failures and found to be in good match. Therefore, for any future power grid, there is a testbed ready to estimate the future failures.

This chapter proposes a fuzzy approach to forecasting using a financial data set. The methodology used is multiple objective linear programming (MOLP). Selecting an individual forecast based on a single objective may not make the best use of available information for a variety of reasons. Combined forecasts may provide a better fit with respect to a single objective than any individual forecast. We incorporate soft constraints and preemptive additive weights into a mathematical programming approach to improve our forecasting accuracy. We compare the results of our approach with the preemptive MOLP approach. A financial example is used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed forecasting methodology.

This chapter models the number of ferry round trips per day in order to make suggestions for future ferry schedules for an island – in this case Bornholm. Calendar effects, including the effect of moving religious holidays, as well as the overall annual level of economic activity, are taken into account. The model for the number of round trips per day is also applicable to the number of passengers per day. If the number of passengers (and arrivals) per day is forecast, this may be used as a basis for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly activity levels for service providers at the destination, including service providers in the accommodations sector. For islands, data for all passengers to/from the destination may be available (ferries and airlines). Based on these daily, weekly or monthly passenger numbers, both domestic and international numbers may be modelled and forecast. Other destinations may model and forecast daily, weekly and monthly international arrivals by air in order to support decisions at the destination site.

The relationship between electricity demand and weather in the United States has been studied as of late due to increased demand, de-regulation, and new pricing models. The influence of weather or seasonality in energy consumption, particularly electricity demand, has been widely researched. A significant scientific interest in the seasonality of energy consumption has led to an important number of papers exploring the role of weather variability and change on energy consumption. Most of these papers model demand as a function of seasonal climate factors.

The goal of this research is a broad examination of monthly residential electricity demand for a region of the mid-Atlantic using Excel and step-wise regression. This is achieved by using a sequence of models built in Excel in which different patterns are gradually introduced in the estimations. Data over a seven-year period is utilized. A backward elimination step-wise regression analysis is employed to determine which independent variables best model the data. Initial independent variables included high monthly temperature, low monthly temperature, time, year, month, seasonal quarter, and introduction of a “green” tax credit for solar and wind energy.

Models for forecasting the electricity demand and the predictive power of these models is assessed. The work is organized as follows: Data description and the methodology, trend and the seasonality of electricity usage in the mid-Atlantic region, the predictive power and seasonality of the models, and main conclusions drawn from the study.

Introduction: It is commonly observed that the ratio of food prices during the war times had become significantly more important than usual periods within the countries including Turkey, known as the Ottoman Empire that previously defeated in Balkans just before the Great World War. The scope of the study is to analyze increased or decreased wheat prices together with price fluctuations during the war period.

Aim: This study investigates the food pricing progress during The Great World War and its relationship with wheat prices.

Method: A model for the behavior of time series is applied to compare the important days of the war data against the timeline of wheat prices for British, German, and French. The statistical test named Holt–Winters uses exponential smoothing technique to encode the various values from the past and predicts “typical” values for the present and the future.

Findings: As a result, it can be said that wheat prices had anomaly patterns during the specific dates in war for French, British, and German sides. Great Britain’s wheat prices increased significantly on April 1915 when landings began on the Gallipoli Peninsula. Wheat prices in Great Britain and Germany dropped significantly just before on July 1916 when the first Battle of the Somme began. However, it increased in Great Britain whilst decreased considerably in Germany in March 1918 when the Soviet Government signed a separate peace agreement with the Central Powers. A significant increase for France was observed only at the end of this war.

In recent years professional accountancy bodies (e.g., CPA), accreditation institutions (e.g., AACSB) and employers have steadily raised, and continue to raise expectations regarding the need for accounting graduates to demonstrate skills in data analytics. One of the obstacles accounting instructors face in seeking to implement data analytics, however, is that they need access to ample teaching materials. Unfortunately, there are few such resources available for advanced programming languages such as R. While skills in commonly used applications such as Excel are no doubt needed, employers often take these for granted and incremental value is only added if graduates can demonstrate knowledge in using more advanced data analytics tools for decision-making such as coding in programming languages. This, together with the current dearth of resources available to accounting instructors to teach advanced programming languages is what drives motivation for this chapter. Specifically, we develop an intuitive, two-dimensional framework for incorporating R (a widely used open-source analytics tool with a powerful embedded programming language) into the accounting curriculum. Our model uses complexity as an integrating theme. We incorporate complexity into this framework at the dataset level (simple and complex datasets) and at the analytics task level (simple and complex tasks). We demonstrate two-dimensional framework by drawing on authentic simple and complex datasets as well as simple and complex tasks that could readily be incorporated into the accounting curriculum and ultimately add value to businesses. R script programming code are provided for all our illustrations.