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The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate behavior over the last 40 years. Furthermore, we test the flexible price monetarist variant and the sticky price Keynesian variant of the monetary model. We conduct our analysis employing a sample of 14 advanced economies using annual data spanning the period 1880–2012.

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the monetary model to the exchange rate determination. We provide a thorough econometric analysis using a battery of unit root and cointegration testing techniques. We test the price-flexible monetarist version and the sticky-price version of the model using annual data from 1880 to 2012 for a group of industrialized countries.

We provide strong evidence of the existence of a nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Therefore, we model the time-varying nature of this relationship by allowing for Markov regime switches for the exchange rate regimes. Modeling exchange rates within this context can be motivated by the fact that the change in regime should be considered as a random event and not predictable. These results show that linearity is rejected in favor of an MS-VECM specification which forms statistically an adequate representation of the data. Two regimes are implied by the model; the one of the estimated regimes describes the monetary model whereas the other matches in most cases the constant coefficient model with wrong signs. Furthermore it is shown that depending on the nominal exchange rate regime in operation, the adjustment to the long run implied by the monetary model of the exchange rate determination came either from the exchange rate or from the monetary fundamentals. Moreover, based on a Regime Classification Measure, we showed that our chosen Markov-switching specification performed well in distinguishing between the two regimes for all cases. Finally, it is shown that fundamentals are not only significant within each regime but are also significant for the switches between the two regimes.

The results are of interest to practitioners and policy makers since understanding the evolution and determination of exchange rates is of crucial importance. Furthermore, our results are linked to forecasting performance of exchange rate models.

The present analysis extends previous analyses on exchange rate determination and it provides further support in favor of the monetary model as a long-run framework to understand the evolution of exchange rates.

The estimation of regression models subject to linear restrictions is a widely applied technique; however, aside from simple examples, the equivalence between the linear restricted case to the reparameterization and the substitution case is rarely employed. We believe this is due to the lack of a general transformation method for changing from the definition of restrictions in terms of the unrestricted parameters to the equivalent reparameterized model and conversely from the reparameterized model to the equivalent linear restrictions for the unrestricted model. In many cases, the reparameterization method is computationally more efficient especially when estimation involves an iterative method. But the linear restriction case allows a simple method for adding and removal of restrictions.

In this chapter, we derive a general relationship that allows the conversion between the two forms of the restricted models. Examples emphasizing systems of demand equations, polynomial lagged equations, and splines are given in which the transformation from one form to the other are demonstrated as well as the combination of both forms of restrictions. In addition, we demonstrate how an alternative Wald test of the restrictions can be constructed using an augmented version of the reparameterized model.

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged-dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter θ and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite-dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the parametric and nonparametric components jointly. We study the asymptotic properties for these two types of estimates when the number of individuals N tends to ∞ and the time period T is fixed. We also propose a specification test for the linearity of the nonparametric component based on a weighted square distance between the parametric estimate under the linear restriction and the semiparametric estimate under the alternative. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the proposed estimators and tests perform well in finite samples. We apply the model to study the relationship between intellectual property right (IPR) protection and economic growth, and find that IPR has a non-linear positive effect on the economic growth rate.

This paper develops methods of Bayesian inference in a cointegrating panel data model. This model involves each cross-sectional unit having a vector error correction representation. It is flexible in the sense that different cross-sectional units can have different cointegration ranks and cointegration spaces. Furthermore, the parameters that characterize short-run dynamics and deterministic components are allowed to vary over cross-sectional units. In addition to a noninformative prior, we introduce an informative prior which allows for information about the likely location of the cointegration space and about the degree of similarity in coefficients in different cross-sectional units. A collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed which allows for efficient posterior inference. Our methods are illustrated using real and artificial data.

A concise introduction to the normalized quadratic expenditure or cost function is provided so that the interested reader will have the necessary information to understand and use this functional form. The normalized quadratic is an attractive functional form for use in empirical applications as correct curvature can be imposed in a parsimonious way without losing the desirable property of flexibility. We believe it is unique in this regard. Topics covered include the problem of cardinalizing utility, the modeling of nonhomothetic preferences, the use of spline functions to achieve greater flexibility, and the use of a “semiflexible” approach to make it feasible to estimate systems of equations with a large number of commodities.

This chapter proposes a vector autoregressive VAR model with structural shocks (SVAR) that are identified using sign restrictions, and whose distribution is subject to time varying skewness. The authors also present an efficient Bayesian algorithm to estimate the model. The model allows tracking joint asymmetric risks to macroeconomic variables included in the SVAR, and provides a structural narrative to the evolution of those risks. When faced with euro area data, our estimation suggests that there has been a significant variation in the skewness of demand, supply and monetary policy shocks. Such variation can explain a significant proportion of the joint dynamics of real GDP growth and inflation, and also generates important asymmetric tail risks in those macroeconomic variables. Finally, compared to the literature on growth- and inflation-at-risk, the authors find that financial stress indicators are not enough to explain all the macroeconomic tail risks.

Lewbel and Pendakur (2009) developed the idea of implicit Marshallian demands. Implicit Marshallian demand systems allow the incorporation of both unobserved preference heterogeneity and complex Engel curves into consumer demand analysis, circumventing the standard problems associated with combining rationality with either unobserved heterogeneity or high rank in demand (or both). They also developed the exact affine Stone index (EASI) implicit Marshallian demand system wherein much of the demand system is linearised and thus relatively easy to implement and estimate. This chapter offers a less technical introduction to implicit Marshallian demands in general and to the EASI demand system in particular. I show how to implement the EASI demand system, paying special attention to tricks that allow the investigator to further simplify the problem without sacrificing too much in terms of model flexibility. STATA code to implement the simplified models is included throughout the text and in an appendix.

I review the burgeoning literature on applications of Markov regime switching models in empirical finance. In particular, distinct attention is devoted to the ability of Markov Switching models to fit the data, filter unknown regimes and states on the basis of the data, to allow a powerful tool to test hypotheses formulated in light of financial theories, and to their forecasting performance with reference to both point and density predictions. The review covers papers concerning a multiplicity of sub-fields in financial economics, ranging from empirical analyses of stock returns, the term structure of default-free interest rates, the dynamics of exchange rates, as well as the joint process of stock and bond returns.