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Article
Publication date: 16 August 2013

Limits‐to‐arbitrage and asset growth anomaly in Chinese stock market

Jianhua Ye and WenFang Li

This paper makes attempt to test the firm‐level long‐term asset growth (LAG) effects in returns by examining the cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level LAG and…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper makes attempt to test the firm‐level long‐term asset growth (LAG) effects in returns by examining the cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level LAG and subsequent abnormal stock returns. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether limits‐to‐arbitrage can explain this asset growth anomaly in Chinese stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical research was carried out.

Findings

The empirical results show that asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market is significant and robust. The conclusion provides more evidence for the existence of asset growth anomaly. Additionally, arbitrage risk indicated by idiosyncratic risk cannot explain the anomaly, arbitrage risk indicated by accounting information transparency can partly explain the anomaly, and arbitrage cost proxied by Amihud's measure of illiquidity indicator can completely explain the asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market.

Research limitations/implications

The results of this paper imply that strengthening the disclosure of firm information and improving the liquidity of the market are important to improve the efficiency of the A‐share stock market.

Originality/value

The paper selects the sample of non‐financial listed companies in A‐share stock market to research the asset growth anomaly and investigates whether limits‐to‐arbitrage can explain this anomaly. This paper proves the existence of asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market and is a good reference for further researches.

Details

Nankai Business Review International, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/NBRI-07-2013-0024
ISSN: 2040-8749

Keywords

  • Abnormal return
  • Asset growth anomaly
  • Investment
  • Limits‐to‐arbitrage

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Article
Publication date: 19 October 2020

Monetary policy uncertainty and stock market returns: influence of limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle

Jessica Paule-Vianez, Camilo Prado-Román and Raúl Gómez-Martínez

This paper aims to examine the impact that monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has on stock market returns by taking into account limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact that monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has on stock market returns by taking into account limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle.

Design/methodology/approach

Using four news-based MPU measures, regression models have been applied in this study over a sample period from January 1985 to March 2020. The limits to arbitrage have been considered by taking Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth indices, and business cycles were established following the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Findings

A negative MPU impact on stock returns has been found. In particular, the most subjective and difficult to arbitrate stocks have been more sensitive to MPU. However, it could not be concluded that MPU has a greater or lesser impact on stock returns depending on the economic cycle.

Practical implications

The findings obtained are particularly useful for monetary policymakers showing the importance and need for greater control over the transparency of their decisions to maintain the stability of financial markets. The findings obtained are also useful for investors when selecting their investment assets at times of the highest MPU.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the few studies investigating the effect of MPU on stock market returns, and the first to analyse this relationship taking into account the economic cycle and limits to arbitrage.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-04-2020-0102
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

  • Behavioural finance
  • Economic cycle
  • Limited arbitrage
  • Monetary policy uncertainty
  • Stock market returns

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Article
Publication date: 12 November 2018

Investors’ sentiment and accruals anomaly: European evidence

Francisca Beer, Badreddine Hamdi and Mohamed Zouaoui

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether investors’ sentiment affects accruals anomaly across European countries.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether investors’ sentiment affects accruals anomaly across European countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors estimate the model using Fama–MacBeth regressions. The sample includes 54,572 firm-year observations for 4,787 European firms during the period 1994–2014.

Findings

The authors find that investors’ sentiment influences accruals mispricing across European countries. The effect is pronounced for stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and difficult to arbitrage. The cross-country analysis provides evidence that sentiment influences accruals anomaly in countries with weaker outside shareholder rights, lower legal enforcement, lower equity market development, higher allowance of accrual accounting and in countries where herd-like behavior and overreaction behavior are strong.

Research limitations/implications

The findings suggest the generalizability of the sentiment-accruals anomaly relation in European countries characterized by different cultural values, levels of economic development and legal tradition.

Practical implications

The findings suggest to caution individuals investors. These investors would be wise to take into account the impact of sentiment on the performance of their portfolio. They must keep in mind that periods of high optimism are accompanied by a high level of accruals and followed by low future stock returns.

Originality/value

The research supplements previous American studies by showing the significance of the level of sentiment in understanding the accruals anomaly in Europe. Hence, it is important for future studies to consider investor sentiment as an important time-series determinant of the accruals anomaly, particularly for stocks that are hard to value and difficult to arbitrage.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JAAR-03-2017-0043
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

  • Institutional factors
  • Cultural dimensions
  • Behavioural finance
  • Cross-country study
  • Accruals anomaly
  • Investors’ sentiment

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Book part
Publication date: 18 March 2014

Assessing market efficiency for reliance on the fraud-on-the-market doctrine after Wal-Mart and Amgen ☆

Bajaj is the Global Head of the Finance and Securities Practice of Navigant Economics. Mazumdar is the Lead Director of the Finance and Securities Practice of Navigant Economics. Both are members of the Finance faculty at the Walter A. Haas School of Business, University of California-Berkeley. Daniel A. McLaughlin is Counsel with Sidley Austin LLP. The opinions expressed herein are opinions of the authors alone and not of their respective organizations or their clients.

Mukesh Bajaj, Sumon C. Mazumdar and Daniel A. McLaughlin

Following the Supreme Court’s 1988 decision in Basic, securities class plaintiffs can invoke the “rebuttable presumption of reliance on public, material misrepresentations…

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Abstract

Following the Supreme Court’s 1988 decision in Basic, securities class plaintiffs can invoke the “rebuttable presumption of reliance on public, material misrepresentations regarding securities traded in an efficient market” [the “fraud-on-the-market” doctrine] to prove classwide reliance. Although this requires plaintiffs to prove that the security traded in an informationally efficient market throughout the class period, Basic did not identify what constituted adequate proof of efficiency for reliance purposes.

Market efficiency cannot be presumed without proof because even large publicly traded stocks do not always trade in efficient markets, as documented in the economic literature that has grown significantly since Basic. For instance, during the recent global financial crisis, lack of liquidity limited arbitrage (the mechanism that renders markets efficient) and led to significant price distortions in many asset markets. Yet, lower courts following Basic have frequently granted class certification based on a mechanical review of some factors that are considered intuitive “proxies” of market efficiency (albeit incorrectly, according to recent studies and our own analysis). Such factors have little probative value and their review does not constitute the rigorous analysis demanded by the Supreme Court.

Instead, to invoke fraud-on-the-market, plaintiffs must first establish that the security traded in a weak-form efficient market (absent which a security cannot, as a logical matter, trade in a “semi-strong form” efficient market, the standard required for reliance purposes) using well-accepted tests. Only then do event study results, which are commonly used to demonstrate “cause and effect” (i.e., prove that the security’s price reacted quickly to news – a hallmark of a semi-strong form efficient market), have any merit. Even then, to claim classwide reliance, plaintiffs must prove such cause-and-effect relationship throughout the class period, not simply on selected disclosure dates identified in the complaint as plaintiffs often do.

These issues have policy implications because, once a class is certified, defendants frequently settle to avoid the magnified costs and risks associated with a trial, and the merits of the case (including the proper application of legal presumptions) are rarely examined at a trial.

Details

The Law and Economics of Class Actions
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-589520140000026006
ISBN: 978-1-78350-951-5

Keywords

  • Securities class actions
  • fraud-on-the-market; arbitrage limits
  • G14
  • K22

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Article
Publication date: 12 March 2018

Trading on ETF mispricings

Yvonne Kreis and Johannes W. Licht

Prior literature has shown deviations between ETF prices and their net-asset-value (NAV) to exist. Fulkerson and Jordan (2013, p. 31) question “if there exists a true…

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Abstract

Purpose

Prior literature has shown deviations between ETF prices and their net-asset-value (NAV) to exist. Fulkerson and Jordan (2013, p. 31) question “if there exists a true tradeable strategy” to exploit these inefficiencies. The purpose of this paper is to implement a profitable daily long-short trading strategy based on price/NAV information and explicitly accounting for trading costs.

Design/methodology/approach

For a sample of European sector ETFs, the authors analyze gross and net returns of a long-short trading strategy in the capital asset pricing model and Fama-French three-factor model.

Findings

The authors document positive gross excess return for the long-short trading strategy in all sample periods, but net excess returns to be positive only between 2008 and 2010.

Research limitations/implications

The results document a profitable long-short trading strategy exploiting deviations between ETF prices and NAV and highlight the impact of trading costs in ETF markets. Due to the limited availability of historic trading cost data, the research uses a comparatively small sample size.

Practical implications

The net profitability of long-short trading in ETFs is only found in times of high uncertainty in the stock market.

Originality/value

The inclusion of trading costs enables a detailed comparison between gross and net returns in ETF trading, addressing potential limits to arbitrage.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 44 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-03-2017-0087
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

  • Efficiency
  • Exchange-traded funds
  • Net returns
  • Price/NAV ratio

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Article
Publication date: 21 September 2009

Asymmetric Asset Price Reaction to News and Arbitrage Risk

John A. Doukas and Meng Li

This study documents that high book‐to‐market (value) and low book‐to‐market (glamour) stock prices react asymmetrically to both common and firm‐specific information…

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Abstract

This study documents that high book‐to‐market (value) and low book‐to‐market (glamour) stock prices react asymmetrically to both common and firm‐specific information. Specifically, we find that value stock prices exhibit a considerably slow adjustment to both common and firm‐specific information relative to glamour stocks. The results show that this pattern of diferential price adjustment between value and glamour stocks is mainly driven by the high arbitrage risk borne by value stocks. The evidence is consistent with the arbitrage risk hypothesis, predicting that idiosyncratic risk, a major impediment to arbitrage activity, amplifies the informational loss of value stocks as a result of arbitrageurs’ (informed investors) reduced participation in value stocks because of their inability to fully hedge idiosyncratic risk.

Details

Review of Behavioural Finance, vol. 1 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/19405979200900002
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

  • Price speed of adjustment
  • High and low book‐to‐market stocks
  • Limits to arbitrage
  • Idiosyncratic risk

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Article
Publication date: 21 May 2018

Revisiting the (mis)pricing of the accrual anomaly

Felix Canitz, Christian Fieberg, Kerstin Lopatta, Thorsten Poddig and Thomas Walker

This paper aims to hunt for the driving force behind the accrual anomaly and revisit the risk versus mispricing debate.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to hunt for the driving force behind the accrual anomaly and revisit the risk versus mispricing debate.

Design/methodology/approach

In sorts of stock returns on abnormal and normal accruals, the authors find that abnormal accruals are the driving force behind the accrual anomaly. The authors then construct characteristic-balanced portfolios from dependent sorts of stock returns on the abnormal accrual characteristic and a related factor-mimicking portfolio to test whether the accrual anomaly is due to risk or mispricing (Daniel and Titman, 1997; Davis et al., 2000).

Findings

Similar to Hirshleifer et al. (2012), the authors find that the accrual anomaly is due to mispricing and that the measure of accruals used in Hirshleifer et al.’s study (2012) is a very broad measure of accruals. The authors therefore recommend the use of abnormal accruals in future research.

Originality/value

The results suggest that there are limits to arbitrage or behavioral biases with regard to the trading of low-accrual firms. Showing that the accrual effect is driven by the level of abnormal accruals, the findings of this study strongly challenge the rational risk explanation proposed by the extant literature.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-12-2016-0154
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

  • Risk
  • Mispricing
  • Abnormal accruals
  • Accrual anomaly

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Article
Publication date: 17 August 2012

Investor sentiment, risk factors and stock return: evidence from Indian non‐financial companies

Saumya Ranjan Dash and Jitendra Mahakud

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pricing implication of aggregate market wide investor sentiment risk for cross sectional return variation in the presence of…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pricing implication of aggregate market wide investor sentiment risk for cross sectional return variation in the presence of other market wide risk factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs the Fama and French time series regression approach to examine the impact of market risk premium, size, book‐to‐market equity, momentum and liquidity as risk factors on stock return. Given the importance of inherent imperfect rationality or sentiment risk, the paper further investigates the impact of investor sentiment on the cross section of stock return.

Findings

The choice of a five factor model is apparently persuasive for consideration in investment decisions. Stocks are hard to value and difficult to arbitrage with characteristics which are significantly influenced with the sentiment risk. It is naïve to argue for the universal pricing implication of sentiment risk in a multifactor model framework.

Research limitations/implications

The test assets portfolios are not segregated as per any industry criteria.

Practical implications

Investment managers can use a contrarian investment strategy, for the stocks that are hard to value and riskier to arbitrage to gain excess return when the market follows a downward trend.

Originality/value

This makes the first attempt towards the investigation of the impact of the sentiment risk on cross sectional return variation from an emerging market perspective on such a diversified and large test asset portfolios. The paper has extended the available literature by investigating the impact of sentiment risk after controlling the liquidity risk factor in a multifactor specification. This measure of market wide irrational sentiment index is more comprehensive.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17554191211252699
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

  • Sentiment risk
  • Five factor model
  • Liquidity risk
  • Risk management
  • Momentum strategy
  • Stock returns
  • India

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Article
Publication date: 18 June 2020

Asymmetric relationship of investor sentiment with stock return and volatility: evidence from India

Madhumita Chakraborty and Sowmya Subramaniam

The study examines the cross-sectional and asymmetric relationship of investor sentiment with the stock returns and volatility in India.

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Abstract

Purpose

The study examines the cross-sectional and asymmetric relationship of investor sentiment with the stock returns and volatility in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The investor sentiment is captured using a market-based measure Market Mood Index (MMI) and a survey-based measure Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI). The asymmetric effect of the relationship is examined using quantile causality approach and cross-sectional effect is examined by considering indices such as the BSE Sensex, and the various size indices such as BSE Large cap, BSE Mid cap and BSE Small cap.

Findings

The result of the study found that investor sentiment (MMI) cause stock returns at extreme quantiles. Lower sentiment induces fear-induced selling, thereby lowers the returns and high sentiment is followed by lower future returns as market reverts to fundamentals. On the other hand, bullish shifts in sentiment lower the volatility. There exists a positive feedback effect of stock return and volatility in the formation of investor sentiment.

Originality/value

The study captures both asymmetric and cross-sectional relationship of investor sentiment and stock market in an emerging economy, India. The study uses a novel data set (i.e.) MMI which captures the sentiment based on market indicators and are widely disseminated to the public.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-07-2019-0094
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

  • Quantile causality
  • Asymmetric relationship
  • Small case market mood index
  • Consumer sentiment index

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Article
Publication date: 7 March 2016

Investor sentiment and share returns: evidence on family firms

Elisabete F. Simões Vieira

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of investor sentiment on share returns, exploring whether this effect is different for public family and non-family firms.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of investor sentiment on share returns, exploring whether this effect is different for public family and non-family firms.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses the European Economic Sentiment Indicator data, from Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs as a proxy for investor sentiment and focused on the share returns of family and non-family firms, using panel data methodology.

Findings

Using data from listed family and non-family firms for the period between 1999 and 2011, in accordance with behavioural finance theory, the results indicate that there is a negative relationship between sentiment and share returns. In addition, the author found no difference between family and non-family firms in what concerns the effect of sentiment on share returns. The evidence also suggests that young, large and medium growth firms are most affected by sentiment. Finally, the results suggest that the evidence concerning the relationship between sentiment and returns is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the sentiment.

Research limitations/implications

A limitation of this study is the small size of the sample, which is due to the small size of the Portuguese stock market, the Euronext Lisbon.

Originality/value

This paper offers some insights into the effect of investor sentiment on the share returns in the context of public family firms, a strand of finance that is scarcely developed. It also contributes to the analysis of a small European country, with a high concentration of equity ownership.

Propósito

El propósito de este trabajo es examinar el efecto de la confianza de los inversores en las acciones devoluciones, explorando si este efecto es diferente para las empresas familiares públicas y no familiares.

Diseño/metodología/enfoque

Utilizamos los datos de los indicadores de sentimiento económico de Europa, de la Dirección General de Asuntos Económicos y Financieros (DG ECFIN) como sustituto de la confianza de los inversores y se centran en la cuota de los retornos de las empresas familiares y no familiares, utilizando datos de panel metodología.

Conclusiones

El uso de los datos de las empresas que figuran familiares y no familiares para el período entre 1999 y 2011, los resultados indican que no existe una relación entre el sentimiento y la cuota de retorno, que está de acuerdo con la teoría financiera estándar, que predice que los precios de las acciones reflejan el descuento valor de los flujos de caja esperados y que la irracionalidad de los inversores se eliminan por árbitros. Además, no encontramos ninguna diferencia entre las empresas familiares y no familiares en lo que se refiere al efecto de la confianza en las acciones devoluciones. Por último, la evidencia sugiere que las grandes empresas y las empresas que pagan dividendos son los más afectados por el sentimiento.

Limitaciones investigación/implicaciones

Una limitación de este estudio es el pequeño tamaño de la muestra, que se deriva del pequeño tamaño del mercado de valores portugués, la Euronext Lisbon.

Originalidad/valor

Este artículo ofrece algunas ideas sobre el efecto de la confianza de los inversores en la cuota de rentabilidad en el contexto de las empresas familiares públicos, un mechón de financiación que apenas se desarrolla, y contribuye al análisis de un pequeño país europeo, con alta concentración de participación en el capital.

Details

Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administración, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/ARLA-08-2015-0234
ISSN: 1012-8255

Keywords

  • Investor sentiment
  • Market return
  • Family firms
  • Behavioural finance
  • confianza de los inversores
  • la rentabilidad de mercado
  • las empresas familiares
  • Comportamiento finanzas
  • G02
  • G12
  • G14

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