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Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Liliana Proskuryakova

The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study.

Findings

As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made.

Research limitations/implications

Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents.

Practical implications

The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies.

Originality/value

This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 November 2016

Thomas Thurner and Liliana Proskuryakova

Sectoral foresight activities often identify technological opportunities but leave the question open who will pursue them. Entrepreneurial activities have become increasingly…

409

Abstract

Purpose

Sectoral foresight activities often identify technological opportunities but leave the question open who will pursue them. Entrepreneurial activities have become increasingly important for the introduction and commercialization of new technological solutions. The same is true for Russia’s oil and gas industry, which requires a major technological upscaling to stay competitive. Promising start-ups, however, often face high barriers and fail to commercialize superior technological solutions. The purpose of this study is to show how industry-specific entry barriers can hamper start-up activities.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper discusses the experiences of a Russian oilfield service start-up in commercializing a self-developed technology for increasing the productivity of oil wells.

Findings

The start-up faced conservatism from corporate decision-makers, declining oil prices and suboptimal protection of intellectual property rights. The company overcame most barriers through moving into other markets outside of Russia, as closing a deal with customers in the USA and Canada went much faster than the extended business cycles of national oil companies.

Originality/value

This paper connects sectoral foresight activities to the real-life experience of a start-up. The findings suggest that entry barriers need to be addressed by the planning process to really pave the way for a greater impact of entrepreneurial activity.

Details

foresight, vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Georgy V. Ermolenko, Liliana Proskuryakova and Boris V. Ermolenko

The purpose of the study is to show the technical potentials of a variety of renewable energy sources in Russia, as well as benefits from their deployment including hydrocarbon…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to show the technical potentials of a variety of renewable energy sources in Russia, as well as benefits from their deployment including hydrocarbon savings, emission reduction and lower energy cost.

Design/methodology/approach

In the paper, Russia is compared with other countries in terms of actual installed capacity and its dynamics, actual and projected share of renewables in the energy mix. The authors offer calculations of the technical potentials (fuel, heat energy, electrical energy, resource saving and environmental) of renewables (solar PV, wind, biomass, geothermal, low-grade heat, small hydro), identify social and economic preconditions and key effects of their deployment.

Findings

The paper features calculations on the renewable energy technology potential, based on the data by Andreenko et al. (2015), authors' calculations and statistical data. This study proves that the cumulative technical potential of the renewables in Russia amounts to 133,935 million units of oil equivalent. This study also offers assessments of oil fuel, black coal and natural gas savings that may be achieved by replacing fossil fuels with renewables; assessments of avoided air pollution calculated as CO- and CO2-equivalents.

Originality/value

The paper fills in the gap of comprehensive assessments of renewable energy potentials in Russia and a variety of effects that their deployment may entail, based on a single integral methodology. The authors offer a new evaluation of existing and future renewable energy potentials, overcoming the methodological and data constraints faced by previous similar studies. The up-to-date, comprehensive and accurate data will help make the right investment and policy choices.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Ozcan Saritas and Liliana N. Proskuryakova

This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products.

Design/methodology/approach

Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments.

Findings

A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period.

Originality/value

The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Thomas Thurner

348

Abstract

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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