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Under the current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic circumstances where the gold prices are increasing and the stocks are in free fall, this research aims to compare the returns of gold prices and Turkish real estate investment trust (T-REIT) index by covering the 2008 global financial crisis, 2018 Turkish currency crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis periods and examine the effects of the returns of gold and the T-REIT index on each other, a research area that has been limited in the literature.

For the empirical analysis, vector auto regression model was used, and Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Granger causality tests were also conducted. The average returns were compared with the coefficient of variation analysis.

The results of the study exhibited that except for the 2008 global financial crisis period, 2018 Turkish currency crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis, the T-REIT index performs better than gold prices, but it is a riskier instrument, and both investment instruments do not affect the returns of each other. The segmentation of both instruments recommends the fund managers including both tools for diversification of a portfolio.

In Turkey, gold prices are valued based on the fluctuations of the global gold prices, as well as the Turkish Lira/US Dollar currency exchange rates. The effect of the exchange rates may be considered in future studies, and the study may be conducted based on the USD values of the T-REIT index and global gold prices. Further studies may also include the comparison between the T-REIT index returns and a set of commodities such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. This study covered only the first five months of 2020 to analyze the COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis initial effects, and a successor study is also recommended by including more new data of the post-COVID-19 pandemic and comparing both results.

The results of the research are expected to contribute to the REIT literature and give insight to investors about their investment choices while including both investment tools in their portfolio, especially for the future conditions of the new COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis.

The study may provide insight for individuals, especially those who are considering possible investment options in the Turkish real estate market in the post-COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

Gold and real estate have always been considered as important investment instruments. Gold is commonly accepted as a safe haven in the literature, and the REITs are considered as long-term investment instruments by many scholars. While gold prices increase in the windy periods, the returns of real estate investments have more cyclical movements based on mostly the macroeconomic conditions and its integration with stock markets, yet the real estate is a common long-term investment tool, especially because of the regular income it generates for the retirement years. By covering three crisis periods including the COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis effects, making research about two important investment tools would contribute to the literature, especially in which the studies in this area were very limited.

This study aims to determine the relationship between the banking industry and home financing by conducting a regression analysis between the mortgage loan interest rates and the number of housing sales, and based on the results of the analysis, this paper proposes a new and alternative interest-free home financing model by directing the savings of the people in pension funds into real estate investment funds (housing fund), specifically established to provide a bank loan-free home financing solution. Diminishing Musharakah (partnership) is also integrated into the model from an interest-free and saving economy perspective. The model developed also provides opportunities to increase the size of the real estate investment funds and provide alternative investment tools to pension funds.

While the global financial crisis resulted from the mortgage crisis in the USA in very recent history, the world has been experiencing the evolution of a new health crisis, COVID-19, a pandemic that has been heavily affecting the global economy in the past two years. The housing sector is among one of the major industries that may be affected by this new global crisis because of the high dependency of the current home financing models on the banking industry, which is carrying the burden of the pandemic. The rapid increase in global debt volume, housing prices, inflation and interest rates are observed as bad signs that may increase the risks of the housing industry. A potential decrease in purchasing power because of high inflation rates may decrease the welfare of people and reduce the income level. While the total debt keeps increasing worldwide, and central banks are considering increasing the interest rates, any potential default in the repayment of the mortgage loans may trigger a new mortgage crisis as the bank loan-dependent financing system of the housing industry lacks alternatives. Thus, a relationship analysis between the banking and housing sectors is required to figure out the dependency of home financing on the banking industry, and a new sustainable home financing model is needed to protect the housing industry and the homebuyers from a negative effect of a new possible financial crisis.

The results of the analysis exhibit that there is a strong negative relationship between the mortgage loan interest rates and the total home sales. As a result, the new model is suggested and this new model is tested in an emerging country, Turkey, with the real housing sector and economic data where the interest rates are high and the home prices are booming. The results exhibit that the new interest-free home financing model provides a more economic financing solution compared with the high financing costs of bank loans.

The model proposed in this study is unique, and there is no such system that has integrated the pension funds, the real estate investment funds and diminishing partnership in one ecosystem. It is expected that the model may decrease the dependency of home financing on the banking industry and decrease the risks of the housing sector in the case a new financial crisis occurs.

While providing a sustainable and alternative interest-free home financing tool, the model also provides individuals who do not prefer to use any bank loan because of religious or other concerns an opportunity to purchase their houses.

The model proposed in this study is a unique and original model that aims to provide a bank loan-free, sustainable home financing solution by integrating the pension funds, real estate investment funds and diminishing partnership in one ecosystem.