Search results

The purpose of this study is to provide down-to-earth macroeconomic policy implications from the up-to-date estimates of the trade system in the OECD countries. Understanding on the linkages between the world trade mechanism and the macroeconomy is of utmost importance for the post-crisis managements of the world economy, the major points regarding the macroeconomic policy implications are as follows.

(1) For the majority of the OECD countries, fiscal expansion is likely to encourage the world trade when it is designed in the way to increase private consumption, in fact, only in a few countries fiscal expansion can increase the world trade volumes in its own right.

(2) Currency depreciation might be an attractive policy option for improving trade balances in the cases of the 9 OECD countries.

(3) There is a clear evidence of pricing-to-market with cross-country diversity, implying that import or domestic price robustness from the external forces.

Professionals from the dairy sector commonly believe that the results of Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions are a good leading indicator for prices of dairy commodities. The purpose of this paper is to test that hypothesis for prices of key dairy commodities (skimmed milk powder (SMP), whole milk powder (WMP), butter and cheddar) in the main dairy markets (the US, EU and Oceania).

The leading properties of the GDT auctions are investigated using vector error correction models (VECM).

The results show that prices at GDT auctions may be treated as a benchmark for global prices of WMP and SMP as they affect prices in all considered markets. However, in case of EU market the relationship with the GDT is bidirectional. GDT prices reveal some leading properties also in cheddar market, however price relationships in this market are much more complex. In case of butter market, GDT can be regarded as a benchmark only for Oceania.

The results of this paper improve knowledge on price transmission in dairy markets, show the role of the GDT auctions in the price setting process, and thus may help professionals from the dairy sector to formulate their price expectations more precisely.

Despite the fact that many professionals from the dairy sector treat GDT auctions as a benchmark, so far their leading properties have not been scientifically proven.

Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyse the differential impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and their components along with the general price level in India.

The study develops a structural macroeconometric model, which is primarily aggregate and eclectic in nature. The generalized method of movements is used for estimation of behavioural equations, while a Gauss–Seidel algorithm is used for model simulation purposes.

The paper presents the results of two policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the differential impact of monetary policy. The first one, hike in the policy rate by 5% and second is a reduction in bank credit to the commercial sector by 10%. The results from the first policy simulation experiment reveal that interest hike has a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is borne by investment demand and imports followed by private consumption. While as among the components of aggregate supply maximum impact is born by infrastructure output followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. The results from the second policy simulation experiment revealed that pure monetary shocks have a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is born by private consumption and imports followed by investment demand. While as among components of aggregate supply maximum impact is borne by infrastructure followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. From both policy simulation experiments, the study highlighted the relative importance of the income absorption approach as opposed to the expenditure switching effect.

The results obtained in this study provides a strong framework for design the monetary policy framework. The results are in a view of the differential impact of monetary policy action among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This reflection of differential impact has immense significance for the macroeconomic stabilization as the central bank will have to weigh the varying repercussion of its actions on different sectors. For instance, the decline in output after monetary tightening might be conceived as mild from an overall perspective, but it can be appreciable for some sectors. This differential influence will have an implication for policy design to care for distributional aspects, which otherwise could be neglected/disregarded. Similarly, the output decline may be as a result of either consumption postponement or a temporary slowdown in investment. However, the one emanating due to investment decline will have lasting growth implications compared to a decline in consumer demand. In addition, the relative strength of expenditure changing or expenditure switching policies of trade balance stabilization may have varying consequences in the aftermath of monetary policy shock. Accordingly information on the relative sensitiveness/insensitiveness of different sectors/ components of aggregate demand towards monetary policy actions furnish valuable insights to monetary authorities in framing appropriate policy.

The work carried out in the present paper is motivated by the fact that although a number of studies have examined the monetary transmission mechanism in India, a very few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. However, to the best of the knowledge, there is no such studies, which have examined the differential impact of monetary policy in the structural macro-econometric framework. The paper will enrich the existing literature by providing a detailed account of the differential impact of monetary policy among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in response to an interest rate hike, as well as a decrease in the money supply.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the pricing efficiency of the Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) market before and after the structural break. This study uses the daily closing price of CPO and CPO futures (CPO-F) for the period ranging from June 2009 to August 2016 while taking structural breaks into account.

In this study, symmetric and asymmetric long-run relationship model are employed, such as the Johansen cointegration, VECM, TAR and M-TAR models, to examine the impact of structural breaks on the pricing efficiency of the Malaysian CPO market.

This finding establish that Malaysian CPO price is efficient before and after the structural break. The consistent efficiency of the Malaysian CPO market supports the trading of the CPO-F in Globex and the use of Malaysian CPO pricing as the reference price. This study establishes that a structural break in the Malaysian CPO price series does not affect the pricing efficiency of the market.

This study shows that using Malaysian CPO price as a reference price is sustainable even in the event of a structural break. Therefore, market participants in the Malaysian CPO market have less to worry about the CPO price as it supports the weak form of efficiency. Price deviation in the short run may not lead to arbitrage profit as transaction cost may not be covered.

This study implies that if there is distortion in the price due to shocks, both manufacturers and producers need to hedge their positions in the futures market (subject to their positions in the underlying market). By entering into the futures market, pricing is locked in advance; hence, price risk is eliminated. Such a distortion could also affect the efficiency of the CPO price, therefore this study also addresses the issue of efficiency of the local CPO market.

Previous studies on Malaysian CPO pricing efficiency did not take the effect of structural break into consideration, making it difficult for these studies to show consistency in the efficiency of the Malaysian CPO market.

This article examines whether deviations from fundamental value or closed-end country fund's discounts or premiums forecast future share price returns or net asset returns.

The main empirical (econometric) tool is a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The authors model share price returns and net asset returns as a function of their lagged values, the discounts or premiums, and a control variable for local market returns. The authors also conduct Dickey Fuller and Granger causality tests as well as impulse response functions.

It was found that deviations from fundamental value do predict share price returns. This predictability is contrary to weak-form market efficiency. Premiums or discounts predict net asset returns but weakly.

The findings point to the idea that the closed-end fund market is somewhat predictable and inefficient (in its weak form) since the market appears to be able to anticipate a fund's future returns using information contained in the premiums (or discounts). In particular, the market has the ability to anticipate future behaviour because growing premiums forecast declining share price returns for one or two periods ahead.