Search results

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea.

The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of large and low inflows of foreign capital. Then, structural impulse-response analysis is used to check whether the responses of the variables differ across the estimated regimes. The model is estimated using quarterly data of foreign capital inflows, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index, credit to the private non-financial sector, real effective exchange rate (REER), stock returns and house prices.

The main findings suggest that large inflows of gross foreign capital, foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are ineffective to boost economic growth, but large inflows of other foreign investments (OFIs) significantly contribute to GDP. The decreases in the foreign capital inflows are associated with larger depreciation of REER. The large inflows of gross foreign capital, FDI and OFIs are associated with further expansion of credit supply to private non-financial sectors.

The policy implications of foreign capital inflows are of particular importance to all the emerging markets alike. However, the empirical analysis is limited to the case of South Korea due to various reasons. The experience with international capital inflows among emerging markets is heterogeneous. Therefore, it would be better to take each case of emerging market individually. In addition, TVAR analysis requires a long data sample, which unfortunately is not available for most of the emerging markets.

The foreign capital inflows are shown to be procyclical and notoriously volatile in many studies. Nevertheless, this topic has commonly been studied using linear VAR models, which do not properly deal with the cyclical characteristics of foreign capital inflows. This study attempts to resolve these methodological limitations by examining a non-linear VAR model that is capable of capturing the structural breaks associated with the cyclical behaviors of foreign capital inflows.

The purpose of the paper is to examine macroeconomic and institutional factors that influence capital flows to low-income sub-Saharan African (SSAn) countries. It analyzes capital flows in a disaggregated manner: foreign divert investment, portfolio equity and portfolio debt. There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for various types of capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. Low-income SSAn countries attract very low levels of foreign investment compared to other developing economies in the SSAn region and other developing economies and this paper attempts to make a contribution in this area.

This paper examines data on capital flows and that of various push and pull factors. Trends and dynamics of capital inflows and their macroeconomic and institutional drivers are analyzed for low-income sub-Saharan African countries. Such an analysis has not been fully explored for low-income SSAn countries.

Capital inflows to low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have increased sevenfold since the 1990s, dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI). They overtook official development assistance and aid in the 2010s. Mozambique and Ethiopia attract the largest size of FDI compared to other low-income SSAn economies, with natural resources as key factors in the former. The largest share of FDI to low-income SSAn countries comes from other SSAn countries, mostly South Africa and Mauritius. Among macroeconomic push factors, capital inflows are more closely related to commodity prices, while the volatility index and global liquidity are also important. Among macroeconomic pull factors, trade openness and economic growth appear more closely related to capital inflows. The surge in capital inflows in the 2000s also followed the implementation of several regional trade and investment agreements in the region. The improvement in internal conflict in the 1990s and mid-2000s seems to have helped support the increase in capital inflows during that period. This institutional quality variable appears to more closely track capital inflows compared to other institutional quality indicators. There were also improvements in the investment profile, law and order, and government stability in the 1990s to early 2000s when capital inflows picked up.

This study focuses on low-income SSAn countries, which are less studied in the empirical literature and that face immense developmental needs that require foreign and domestic capital.

Findings of this paper can shed light to policy makers on the factors that are most important to help the region attract capital inflows and areas where further improvement is needed in the macroeconomic and institutional environment.

There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for attracting capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. To our knowledge, this study may be the first to explore dynamics of capital flows against institional quality for low-income SSAn countries at a disaggregated level.

The purpose of this paper is to consider the transition of surge episodes to stop episodes and differentiates between two types of surges, namely, surges that end in stops and surges that end in normal episodes.

Previous studies show that surges end in output contractions, crises, and reversals of capital inflows. However, when one looks closely at the data, more than half of surges end in normal episodes at least four quarters following the last surge quarter.

The results show the varying significance of global and domestic factors correlated with the occurrence of surges leading to stops and the size of gross inflows during these two types of surges.

The findings highlight the importance of differentiating between these two types of surges as it leaves scope for policy design in safeguarding financial stability amidst surging capital inflows.

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops.

Emphasizing the importance of looking at the behavior of domestic as well as foreign capital flows, the authors distinguish sudden stops from capital flow reversals by attributing the former to foreign capital flows only.

It is found that, despite the large differences in the number of surges identified by several different measures in the literature, a majority of surges do end in reversals of some type. The percentages tend to be slightly over half for surges in net capital flows, but on average, 70 per cent of gross surges end in sudden stops. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, approximately half of sudden stops and net capital flow reversals are not preceded by surges. It is also found that surges that persist longer are more likely to turn into sudden stops and reversals.

The authors find substantial empirical differences in the characteristics of sudden stops (based on gross foreign flows) and reversals (based on net flows).

Large inflows of financial capital are not always a strong indicator that a country’s economic policies will continue to provide stability in the future. They may signal an increase rather than reduction in the risk of future instability.

This study focuses on an issue that has been less explored to date, the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops. The authors distinguish, redefine and document differences among capital flow reversals and sudden stops. Duration of surges is related to the likelihood of having reversals and sudden stops.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) by focusing on institutional and economic factors among South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Central Asian countries over the period 2002-2014.

The generalized method of moments technique is employed for analyzing the impact of institutional quality on FDI inflow by controlling for the effect of market size, domestic investment and labor force.

The authors found large variations in terms of the impact of institutional and economic variables in regards to FDI in the SAARC, Central Asian and ASEAN regions. The results reveal that real GDP, domestic investment and economic freedom index have a positive and significant effect on FDI inflows in the SAARC region, while governance index and labor force have a negative impact on FDI inflows. In Central Asia, the real GDP, domestic investment and governance index are positively associated with FDI inflows, whereas the effect of economic freedom index on FDI is negative as well as insignificant. Apart from the GDP, other variables such as labor force, domestic investment, governance and economic freedom indices influence FDI positively in the ASEAN region. It is worth mentioning here that domestic investment produces positive effect on FDI inflows in all the regions. On the whole, the authors may conclude that institutional factors play an important role in attracting FDI inflows in the ASEAN region as compared to Central Asian and SAARC regions.

A limited research work is available that could help in identifying the role of institutional and economic factors simultaneously in attracting FDI in the SAARC, Central Asian and ASEAN regions.

By reinforcing monetary policy independence, reducing international financing pressures and avoiding high-risk takings, capital controls strengthen the stability of the financial system and then reduce the volatility of capital inflows. The objective of this study was to conduct an empirical examination of this hypothesis. This topic has received strong support in the theoretical literature; however, empirical work has been quite limited, with few empirical studies that provide direct empirical support to this hypothesis.

This study analyzed quarterly data of 32 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital control actions. Using panel analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and local projections approaches.

This study found that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond counter-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. We also found that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital inflows compared to capital controls on outflows.

This study contributes to the question of the effectiveness of capital controls in attenuating the effects of international shocks and reducing the volatility of capital flows. Previous studies have mostly focused on the role of macroprudential regulation; however, there is a lack of systematic effects of capital controls on monetary and exchange rate policies. To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study to suggest that capital controls may buffer monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows. This study investigates the novel notion that capital controls allow for a notable counter-cyclical response of monetary and exchange rate policies to international financial shocks.

The authors evaluate financial stability and capital flows management objectives of capital controls in the context of four capital control events: removing or imposing controls on capital inflows and removing or imposing controls on capital outflows. The authors use synthetic control method to solve the endogeneity problem stemmed from the timing of capital control implementation. The authors find new evidence that capital controls are not consistently effective in reaching financial stability outcomes but are consistent in reaching capital flows management outcomes. The authors compare our results to estimates using difference-in-difference (DID) and carry out placebo analysis. Finally, we use synthetic DID to correct for the parallel trend bias and show that the results still hold.

Relative risk ratings measure the degree by which a country’s sovereign rating is better or worse than other countries (Basu et al., 2013). However, the literature on the impacts of sovereign ratings on capital flows has not covered the role of relative risk ratings. This paper aims to examine the effect of relative risk ratings on private capital flows to emerging and frontier market economies is filled. In the analysis, the effect of relative risk ratings to that of absolute sovereign ratings in influencing private capital flows are compared.

This paper examines the influence of sovereign credit ratings and relative risk ratings on private capital flows to 26 emerging and frontier market economies using quarterly data for a 20-year period between 1998 and 2017. A dynamic panel regression model is used to estimate the relationship between ratings and capital flows after controlling for other factors that can influence capital flows such as growth and interest rate differentials and global risk conditions.

The analysis finds that while absolute sovereign credit ratings were an important determinant of net capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the influence of relative risk ratings increased in the post-crisis period. The post-crisis effect of relative ratings appears to be driven mostly by portfolio flows. The main results are robust to an alternate measure of capital flows (gross capital flows instead of net capital flows), to the use of fixed gross domestic product weights in calculating relative risk ratings and to the potential endogeneity of absolute and relative ratings.

This study advances the literature on being the first attempt to understand the impact of relative risk ratings on capital flows and also comparing the impact of absolute sovereign ratings and relative risk ratings on capital flows in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods. The findings imply that emerging and frontier markets need to pay greater attention to their relative economic performance and not just their sovereign ratings.

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the most ambitious investment strategy for infrastructural development belonging to the significant potential for stimulating regional economic growth in Asia, Europe and Africa. This study aims to investigate the impact of infrastructure on spurring inward foreign direct investment (FDI) within the purview of human capital, GDP per capita, foreign aid, trade, domestic investment, population and institutional quality in BRI countries.

In doing so, the authors analyze panel data from 2000 to 2019 within the framework of the system generalized method of movement (GMM) approach for 66 BRI countries from Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

The investigated results demonstrate that aggregate and disaggregate infrastructure indices, e.g. transport, telecommunications, financial and energy infrastructures, are the driving forces in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in the BRI countries. In addition, control variables (i.e. institutional quality, human capital, trade, domestic investment, foreign aid and GDP per capita) play an essential role in spurring FDI inflows.

The authors’ study uniquely investigates both the pre- (2000–2012) and post- (2013–2019) BRI scenarios using the aggregate and disaggregate infrastructural components from the perspectives of full and clustered sample regions, such as Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The study provides several policy implications.