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1 – 10 of over 2000This paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may incentivize unemployment and may also facilitate better matching in the labor market. Statistical evidence of the presence of a co-movement will thus shed new light on their dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
This research applies time-series econometric approach using monthly data from 1959:1 to 2020:3 to test threshold cointegration and estimate a threshold vector error-correction (TVEC) model. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics.
Findings
The Enders and Siklos (2001) test find evidence of threshold cointegration between the two indicating the presence of long-run co-movement. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics find evidence that the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in labor force participation rate adjust simultaneously to maintain the long-run co-movement above the threshold in the short run. The author also observes the same short-run dynamics for the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in the labor force participation rate for females.
Research limitations/implications
This model is bi-variate by construction and does not address causality.
Practical implications
The author argues that the UI program positively impacts the female labor market outcomes, for example, better matching. This finding may explain the upward trend in the labor force participation rate for females in the USA.
Social implications
The research findings may justify the transfer programs for minority and immigrants.
Originality/value
This is first research that analyzes the UI programs impact on the labor force participation using a macroeconometric approach. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in this genre.
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The study investigates the influence of ChatGPT on the labor market dynamics, aiming to provide a structured understanding of the changes induced by generative AI technologies.
Abstract
Purpose
The study investigates the influence of ChatGPT on the labor market dynamics, aiming to provide a structured understanding of the changes induced by generative AI technologies.
Design/methodology/approach
An analysis of existing literature serves as the foundation for understanding the impact, while the supply and demand model helps assess the effects of ChatGPT. A text-mining approach is utilized to analyze the International Standard Occupation Classification, identifying occupations most susceptible to disruption by ChatGPT.
Findings
The study reveals that 32.8% of occupations could be fully impacted by ChatGPT, while 36.5% might experience a partial impact and 30.7% are likely to remain unaffected.
Research limitations/implications
While this study offers insights into the potential influence of ChatGPT and other generative AI services on the labor market, it is essential to note that these findings represent potential implications rather than realized labor market effects. Further research is needed to track actual changes in employment patterns and job market dynamics where these AI services are widely adopted.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the field by systematically categorizing the level of impact on different occupations, providing a nuanced perspective on the short- and long-term implications of ChatGPT and similar generative AI services on the labor market.
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Wilson Aparecido Costa de Amorim, Marcus Vinicius Gonçalves da Cruz, Amyra Moyzes Sarsur and André Luiz Fischer
The purpose of this work is to comparatively study human resources management (HRM) areas in Brazil, at the national level, analyzing how companies considered labor market and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this work is to comparatively study human resources management (HRM) areas in Brazil, at the national level, analyzing how companies considered labor market and labor relations aspects when building their strategies and when configuring people management models in place in the country (2014–2019), based on local conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
The subject was approached through qualitative analysis, encompassing document survey, systematic literature review, specialists' panel discussions, eight focus groups (43 human resources [HR] managers), interviews (16 union members), applying institutional approach to people management.
Findings
In regards to labor market and unions, HR areas faced different conditions across Brazilian regions. They have dealt with those influences on their strategic and quotidian decisions in an unstructured fashion. HR areas remain constructed as traditional, adjuvant and far from strategic level. In the institutionalization process – normative isomorphism – a professional HR jargon use was identified. HR areas usually act in collective bargaining, resorting to specialized professionals or consulting companies. During the economic crisis, HR professionals' attitude had a reactive nature, responding to organizations leadership, with little dedication to the emerging context.
Practical implications
This work enables important players like HR managers, union members and specialists in public policies to interpret the institutionalization phenomena of practices related to management, labor market and labor relations in the country.
Social implications
Understanding the effects of the relations among state, companies and unions allows the different power vectors, acting upon the institutionalization process of people management areas in the Brazilian case, to be outlined.
Originality/value
This study applies the institutional approach to understand the economic and social heterogeneity affecting organizations in Brazil. It enhances the knowledge on HRM areas scope and their articulation toward labor market and relations.
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The author augments an otherwise standard business-cycle model with a rich government sector and adds monopolistic competition in the product market and rigid prices, as well as…
Abstract
Purpose
The author augments an otherwise standard business-cycle model with a rich government sector and adds monopolistic competition in the product market and rigid prices, as well as rigid wages a la Calvo (1983) in the labor market.
Design/methodology/approach
This specification with the nominal wage rigidity, when calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2018), allows the framework to reproduce better observed variability and correlations among model variables and those characterizing the labor market in particular.
Findings
As nominal wage frictions are incorporated, the variables become more persistent, especially output, capital stock, investment and consumption, which help the model match data better, as compared to a setup without rigidities.
Practical implications
The findings suggest that technology shocks seem to be the dominant source of economic fluctuations, but nominal wage rigidities as well as the monopolistic competition in the product market, might be important factors of relevance to the labor market dynamics in Bulgaria, and such imperfections should be incorporated in any model that studies cyclical movements in employment and wages.
Originality/value
The computational experiments performed in this paper suggest that wage rigidities are a quantitatively important model ingredient, which should be taken into consideration when analyzing the effects of different policies in Bulgaria, which is a novel result.
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Sierdjan Koster and Claudia Brunori
Ongoing automation processes may render a fair share of the existing jobs redundant or change their nature. This begs the question to what extent employees affected invest in…
Abstract
Purpose
Ongoing automation processes may render a fair share of the existing jobs redundant or change their nature. This begs the question to what extent employees affected invest in training in order to strengthen their labour market position in times of uncertainty. Given the different national labour market regimes and institutions, there may be an important geographical dimension to the opportunities to cope with the challenges set by automation. The purpose of this study is to address both issues.
Design/methodology/approach
Using data from the 2016 European labour Force Survey, the authors estimate with logit and multi-level regression analyses how the automation risk of a worker's job is associated with the propensity of following non-formal education/training. The authors allow this relationship to vary across European countries.
Findings
The results show that employees in jobs vulnerable to automation invest relatively little in training. Also, there are significant differences across Europe in both the provision of training in general and the effect of automation on training provision.
Originality/value
While there is quite a lot of research on the structural labour market effects of automation, relatively little is known about the actions that employees take to deal with the uncertainty they are faced with. This article aims to contribute to our understanding of such mechanisms underlying the structural macro-level labour-market dynamics.
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Victoria Osuna and José Ignacio García Pérez
This paper aims to study the type of short-time work (STW) schemes implemented in Spain to preserve jobs and workers’ incomes during the COVID-19 crisis and the corresponding…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to study the type of short-time work (STW) schemes implemented in Spain to preserve jobs and workers’ incomes during the COVID-19 crisis and the corresponding labour market outcomes.
Design/methodology/approach
A dynamic macroeconomic model of job creation and destruction of the search and matching type in a dual labour market.
Findings
The model shows that the availability of STW schemes does not necessarily prevent a large increase in unemployment and job destruction. The quantitative effects depend on the degree of subsidization of payroll taxes and on the design of the policy. A scenario with a moderate degree of subsidization and where the subsidy is independent of the reduction in hours worked is the least harmful for both welfare and fiscal deficit. The cost of such a strategy is a higher unemployment rate. Concerning heterogeneous effects, the unemployed are the ones who experience the strongest distributional changes.
Originality/value
The effectiveness of STW schemes in dual labour markets using a search and matching model in the context of the COVID-19 crisis has not been analysed elsewhere. The literature has emphasized the importance of dynamics, labour market institutions and workers’ heterogeneity to understand workforce adjustment decisions in the face of temporary shocks to de- mand especially when firms’ human capital is relevant. These elements are present in the model. In addition, this paper computes welfare and distributional effects and the cost of these policies.
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This paper aims to identify the level of contribution of different levels of education to remaining in unemployment as well as the transition from unemployment to employment in…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to identify the level of contribution of different levels of education to remaining in unemployment as well as the transition from unemployment to employment in Egypt.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, transition probabilities matrix differentiated by gender, age groups, educational levels, marital status and place of residence based on worker flows across employment, unemployment and out of labor force states during the period 2012–2018 using Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey of 2018. The results point to the highly static nature of the Egyptian labor market. Employment and the out of labor force states are the least mobile among labor market states. This is because employment state is very desirable and the out of labor force is the largest labor market states, especially for females. Also, this study examines the impact of different educational levels separately on remaining in unemployment and transition from unemployment to employment state using eight binary logistic regression models.
Findings
The main results of transitions from unemployment to employment are relatively large for males, elder-age, uneducated workers as well as workers who are not married and urban residents, and the results of the logistic regression models consistent with the transition probabilities matrix results, except for few cases. Based on the above findings, there is enough evidence to accept the null hypothesis that no education has a positive significant impact to transition unemployed individuals from unemployment to employment, while less than intermediate as well as higher education have a negative significant impact to transition unemployed individuals from unemployment to employment.
Originality/value
This paper proposes to address the problem of the unemployment among highly educated which is much higher compared with illiterates and try to understand the impact of different levels of education separately on the transition from unemployment to employment, to help the policymakers to eradicate the gap between education and the demand of the labor market in Egypt.
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Quivine Ndomo, Ilona Bontenbal and Nathan A. Lillie
The purpose of this paper is to characterise the position of highly educated African migrants in the Finnish labour market and to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to characterise the position of highly educated African migrants in the Finnish labour market and to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on that position.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper is based on the biographical work stories of 17 highly educated African migrant workers in four occupation areas in Finland: healthcare, cleaning, restaurant and transport. The sample was partly purposively and partly theoretically determined. The authors used content driven thematic analysis technique, combined with by the biographical narrative concept of turning points.
Findings
Using the case of highly educated African migrants in the Finnish labour market, the authors show how student migration policies reinforce a pattern of division of labour and occupations that allocate migrant workers to typical low skilled low status occupations in the secondary sector regardless of level of education, qualification and work experience. They also show how the unique labour and skill demands of the COVID-19 pandemic incidentally made these typical migrant occupations essential, resulting in increased employment and work security for this group of migrant workers.
Research limitations/implications
This research and the authors’ findings are limited in scope owing to sample size and methodology. To improve applicability of findings, future studies could expand the scope of enquiry using e.g. quantitative surveys and include other stakeholders in the study group.
Originality/value
The paper adds to the knowledge on how migration policies contribute to labour market dualisation and occupational segmentation in Finland, illustrated by the case of highly educated African migrant workers.
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Francesco Nemore, Rocco Caferra and Andrea Morone
Our main purpose is to test the unemployment invariance hypothesis in Italy.
Abstract
Purpose
Our main purpose is to test the unemployment invariance hypothesis in Italy.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper provides an empirical investigation of the unemployment and labor force participation in Italy.
Findings
Cointegration analysis results strongly suggest a clear long-run relationship between unemployment and labor force participation revealing a persistent and general added worker effect.
Originality/value
Our results seem to confute the unemployment invariance hypothesis.
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This paper aims to weigh the restrictions to job creation imposed by labor market imperfections with respect to financial market imperfections. The authors want to see which…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to weigh the restrictions to job creation imposed by labor market imperfections with respect to financial market imperfections. The authors want to see which restriction is more severe, and thus assess which is more powerful in creating permanent employment if it were removed.
Design/methodology/approach
A structural estimation is performed. The policy rules of the dynamic programming model are integrated into a simulated maximum likelihood procedure by which the model parameters are recovered. Data come from the CBBE (Balance Sheet data from the Bank of Spain). Identification of key parameters comes mainly from the observation of debt variation and sluggish adjustment to permanent labor.
Findings
Long-run permanent employment increases up to 69% when financial constraints are removed, whereas permanent employment only increases up to 54% when employment protection or firing costs are eliminated. The main finding of this paper is that the long-run expansion of permanent employment is larger when financial imperfections are removed than when firing costs are removed, even when there are important wage increases that moderate these employment expansions.
Social implications
The removal of firing costs has been suggested by several economists as a result of the analysis of labor market imperfections. These policies, however, face the strong opposition of labor unions. This paper shows that the goals of permanent job creation can be accomplished without removing employment protection but by means of enhancing financial access to firms.
Originality/value
The connection between financial constraints and employment has been studied in recent years, motivated by the Great Recession. However, there is no assessment of how financial and labor market imperfections compare with each other to restrict permanent job creation. This comparison is crucial for policy analysis. This study is an attempt to fill out this gap in the economic literature. No previous research has attempted to perform this very important comparison.
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