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This study aims to propose a more precise method for robust design optimization of mechanical structures with black-box problems, while also considering the efficiency of uncertainty analysis.

The method first introduces a dual adaptive chaotic flower pollination algorithm (DACFPA) to overcome the shortcomings of the original flower pollination algorithm (FPA), such as its susceptibility to poor accuracy and convergence efficiency when dealing with complex optimization problems. Furthermore, a DACFPA-Kriging model is developed by optimizing the relevant parameter of Kriging model via DACFPA. Finally, the dual Kriging model is constructed to improve the efficiency of uncertainty analysis, and a robust design optimization method based on DACFPA-Dual-Kriging is proposed.

The DACFPA outperforms the FPA, particle swarm optimization and gray wolf optimization algorithms in terms of solution accuracy, convergence speed and capacity to avoid local optimal solutions. Additionally, the DACFPA-Kriging model exhibits superior prediction accuracy and robustness contrasted with the original Kriging and FPA-Kriging. The proposed method for robust design optimization based on DACFPA-Dual-Kriging is applied to the motor hanger of the electric multiple units as an engineering case study, and the results confirm a significant reduction in the fluctuation of the maximum equivalent stress.

This study represents the initial attempt to enhance the prediction accuracy of the Kriging model using the improved FPA and to combine the dual Kriging model for uncertainty analysis, providing an idea for the robust optimization design of mechanical structure with black-box problem.

Background: Geostatistics focuses on spatial or spatiotemporal datasets. Geostatistics was initially developed to generate probability distribution predictions of ore grade in the mining industry; however, it has been successfully applied in diverse scientific disciplines. This technique includes univariate, multivariate, and simulations. Kriging geostatistical methods, simple, ordinary, and universal Kriging, are not multivariate models in the usual statistical function. Notwithstanding, simple, ordinary, and universal kriging techniques utilize random function models that include unlimited random variables while modeling one attribute. The coKriging technique is a multivariate estimation method that simultaneously models two or more attributes defined with the same domains as coregionalization.

Objective: This study investigates the impact of populations on traffic volumes as a variable. The additional variable determines the strength or accuracy obtained when data integration is adopted. In addition, this is to help improve the estimation of annual average daily traffic (AADT).

Methods procedures, process: The investigation adopts the coKriging technique with AADT data from 2009 to 2016 from Montana, Minnesota, and Washington as primary attributes and population as a controlling factor (second variable). CK is implemented for this study after reviewing the literature and work completed by comparing it with other geostatistical methods.

Results, observations, and conclusions: The Investigation employed two variables. The data integration methods employed in CK yield more reliable models because their strength is drawn from multiple variables. The cross-validation results of the model types explored with the CK technique successfully evaluate the interpolation technique's performance and help select optimal models for each state. The results from Montana and Minnesota models accurately represent the states' traffic and population density. The Washington model had a few exceptions. However, the secondary attribute helped yield an accurate interpretation. Consequently, the impact of tourism, shopping, recreation centers, and possible transiting patterns throughout the state is worth exploring.

The modeling cost of the gradient-enhanced kriging (GEK) method is prohibitive for high-dimensional problems. This study aims to develop an efficient modeling strategy for the GEK method.

A two-step tuning strategy is proposed for the construction of the GEK model. First, an auxiliary kriging is built efficiently. Then, the hyperparameter of the kriging model is served as a good initial guess to that of the GEK model, and a local optimal search is further used to explore the search space of hyperparameter to guarantee the accuracy of the GEK model. In the construction of the auxiliary kriging, the maximal information coefficient is adopted to estimate the relative magnitude of the hyperparameter, which is used to transform the high-dimension maximum likelihood estimation problem into a one-dimensional optimization. The tuning problem of the auxiliary kriging becomes independent of the dimension. Therefore, the modeling efficiency can be improved significantly.

The performance of the proposed method is studied with analytic problems ranging from 10D to 50D and an 18D aerodynamic airfoil example. It is further compared with two efficient GEK modeling methods. The empirical experiments show that the proposed model can significantly improve the modeling efficiency without sacrificing accuracy compared with other efficient modeling methods.

This paper developed an efficient modeling strategy for GEK and demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method in modeling high-dimension problems.

Assessing the failure probability of engineering structures is still a challenging task in the presence of various uncertainties due to the involvement of expensive-to-evaluate computational models. The traditional simulation-based approaches require tremendous computational effort, especially when the failure probability is small. Thus, the use of more efficient surrogate modeling techniques to emulate the true performance function has gained increasingly more attention and application in recent years. In this paper, an active learning method based on a Kriging model is proposed to estimate the failure probability with high efficiency and accuracy.

To effectively identify informative samples for the enrichment of the design of experiments, a set of new learning functions is proposed. These learning functions are successfully incorporated into a sampling scheme, where the candidate samples for the enrichment are uniformly distributed in the n-dimensional hypersphere with an iteratively updated radius. To further improve the computational efficiency, a parallelization strategy that enables the proposed algorithm to select multiple sample points in each iteration is presented by introducing the K-means clustering algorithm. Hence, the proposed method is referred to as the adaptive Kriging method based on K-means clustering and sampling in n-Ball (AK-KBⁿ).

The performance of AK-KBⁿ is evaluated through several numerical examples. According to the generated results, all the proposed learning functions are capable of guiding the search toward sample points close to the LSS in the critical region and result in a converged Kriging model that perfectly matches the true one in the regions of interest. The AK-KBⁿ method is demonstrated to be well suited for structural reliability analysis and a very good performance is observed in the investigated examples.

In this study, the statistical information of Kriging prediction, the relative contribution of the sample points to the failure probability and the distances between the candidate samples and the existing ones are all integrated into the proposed learning functions, which enables effective selection of informative samples for updating the Kriging model. Moreover, the number of required iterations is reduced by introducing the parallel computing strategy, which can dramatically alleviate the computation cost when time demanding numerical models are involved in the analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to propose physically based varying fidelity surrogates to be used in structural design optimization of space trusses. The main aim is to demonstrate its efficiency in reducing the number of high fidelity (HF) runs in the optimization process.

In this work, surrogate models are built for space truss structures. This study uses functional as well as physical surrogates. In the latter, a grid analogy of the space truss is used thereby reducing drastically the analysis cost. Global and local approaches are considered. The latter will require a globalization scheme (sequential approximate optimization (SAO)) to ensure convergence.

Physically based surrogates were proposed. Classical techniques, namely Taylor series and kriging, are also implemented for comparison purposes. A parameter study in kriging is necessary to select the best kriging model to be used as surrogate. A test case was considered for optimization and several surrogates were built. The CPU time is reduced when compared with the HF solution, for all surrogate‐based optimization performed. The best result was achieved combining the proposed physical model with additive corrections in a SAO strategy in which C1 continuity was imposed at each trust region center. Some guidance for other engineering applications was given.

This is the first time that physical‐based surrogates for optimum design of space truss systems are used in the SAO framework. Physical surrogates typically exhibit better generalization properties than other surrogates forms, produce faster solutions, and do not suffer from dimensionality curse when used in approximate optimization strategies.

Kriging model has been widely adopted to reduce the high computational costs of simulations in Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). To construct the Kriging model accurately and efficiently in the region of significance, a local sampling method with variable radius (LSVR) is proposed. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

In LSVR, the sequential sampling points are mainly selected within the local region around the current design point. The size of the local region is adaptively defined according to the target reliability and the nonlinearity of the probabilistic constraint. Every probabilistic constraint has its own local region instead of all constraints sharing one local region. In the local sampling region, the points located on the constraint boundary and the points with high uncertainty are considered simultaneously.

The computational capability of the proposed method is demonstrated using two mathematical problems, a reducer design and a box girder design of a super heavy machine tool. The comparison results show that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate.

The main contribution of this paper lies in: a new local sampling region computational criterion is proposed for Kriging. The originality of this paper is using expected feasible function (EFF) criterion and the shortest distance to the existing sample points instead of the other types of sequential sampling criterion to deal with the low efficiency problem.

This study aims to propose an efficient method for solving reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems.

In the proposed algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the global optimal solution of design parameters satisfying the reliability and deterministic constraints. The Kriging model based on U learning function is used as a classification tool to accurately and efficiently judge whether an individual solution in GA belongs to feasible region.

Compared with existing methods, the proposed method has two major advantages. The first one is that the GA is employed to construct the optimization framework, which is helpful to search the global optimum solutions of the RBDO problems. The other one is that the use of Kriging model is helpful to improve the computational efficiency in solving the RBDO problems.

Since the boundaries are concerned in two Kriging models, the size of the training set for constructing the convergent Kriging model is small, and the corresponding efficiency is high.

Engineering system design and optimization problems are usually multi-objective and constrained and have uncertainties in the inputs. These uncertainties might significantly degrade the overall performance of engineering systems and change the feasibility of the obtained solutions. This paper aims to propose a multi-objective robust optimization approach based on Kriging metamodel (K-MORO) to obtain the robust Pareto set under the interval uncertainty.

In K-MORO, the nested optimization structure is reduced into a single loop optimization structure to ease the computational burden. Considering the interpolation uncertainty from the Kriging metamodel may affect the robustness of the Pareto optima, an objective switching and sequential updating strategy is introduced in K-MORO to determine (1) whether the robust analysis or the Kriging metamodel should be used to evaluate the robustness of design alternatives, and (2) which design alternatives are selected to improve the prediction accuracy of the Kriging metamodel during the robust optimization process.

Five numerical and engineering cases are used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The results illustrate that K-MORO is able to obtain robust Pareto frontier, while significantly reducing computational cost.

The proposed approach exhibits great capability for practical engineering design optimization problems that are multi-objective and constrained and have uncertainties.

A K-MORO approach is proposed, which can obtain the robust Pareto set under the interval uncertainty and ease the computational burden of the robust optimization process.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an application software interpolation system based on Taylor Kriging (TK) metamodeling, and apply the developed software system to addressing some engineering interpolation problems.

TK is a novel Kriging model where Taylor expansion is used to identify the base functions of drift function in Kriging. The paper explains the methodology of TK, illustrates the development of software, and reports the results of two case studies by comparing TK with several regression methods.

TK has the advantage of interpolation accuracy, and the developed Kriging software system is useful and can be conveniently manipulated by users.

The developed software system can benefit practical engineering applications that need accurate interpolations under limited observations.

This paper develops an application software interpolation system based on a novel TK metamodel, and the practical engineering applications show that it can provide accurate interpolations under limited observations.

This paper aims to investigates several design strategies to solve multi-objective aerodynamic optimization problems using high-fidelity simulations. The purpose is to find strategies which reduce the overall optimization time while still maintaining accuracy at the high-fidelity level.

Design strategies are proposed that use an algorithmic framework composed of search space reduction, fast surrogate models constructed using a combination of physics-based surrogates and kriging and global refinement of the Pareto front with co-kriging. The strategies either search the full or reduced design space with a low-fidelity model or a physics-based surrogate.

Numerical investigations of airfoil shapes in two-dimensional transonic flow are used to characterize and compare the strategies. The results show that searching a reduced design space produces the same Pareto front as when searching the full space. Moreover, as the reduced space is two orders of magnitude smaller (volume-wise), the number of required samples to setup the surrogates can be reduced by an order of magnitude. Consequently, the computational time is reduced from over three days to less than half a day.

The proposed design strategies are novel and holistic. The strategies render multi-objective design of aerodynamic surfaces using high-fidelity simulation data in moderately sized search spaces computationally tractable.