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Article
Publication date: 10 March 2020

Modelling sectoral spillovers in the USA (1992–2015): A GVAR approach

Konstantinos N. Konstantakis, Panayotis G. Michaelides, Theofanis Papageorgiou and Theodoros Daglis

This research paper uses a novel methodological approach to investigate the spillover effects among the key sectors of the US economy.

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Abstract

Purpose

This research paper uses a novel methodological approach to investigate the spillover effects among the key sectors of the US economy.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper links the US sectors via a node theoretic scheme based on a general equilibrium framework, whereas it estimates the general equilibrium equation as a Global Vector Autoregressive process, taking into consideration the potential existence of dominant units.

Findings

Based on our findings, the dominant sector in the US economy, for the period 1992–2015, is the sector of information technology, finance and communications, a fact that gives credence to the view that the US economy is a service-driven economy. In addition, the US economy seems to benefit by the increased labour mobility across knowledge-intensive sectors, thus avoiding the ‘employment trap’ which in turn enabled the US economy to overcome the financial crisis of 2007.

Originality/value

Firstly, the paper models by means of a network approach which is based on a general equilibrium framework, the linkages between the US sectors while treating the sector of information, technology, communications and finance as dominant, as dictated by its degree of centrality in the network structure. Secondly, the paper offers a robustness analysis regarding both the existence and the identification of dominant sectors (nodes) in the US economy. Thirdly, the paper studies a wide period, namely 1992–2015, fully capturing the recent global recession, while acknowledging the impact of the global crisis through the introduction of the relevant exogenous dummy variables; Lastly and most importantly, it is the first study to apply the GVAR approach in a network general equilibrium framework at the sectoral level.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2018-0378
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

  • Network
  • General equilibrium
  • Sectors
  • US
  • GVAR

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Article
Publication date: 7 October 2014

Sector size, technical change and stability in the USA (1957-2006): a Schumpeterian approach

Konstantinos Konstantakis, Panayotis G. Michaelides and Theofanis Papageorgiou

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate two famous postulates of the Schumpeterian doctrine and its implications for the US economy.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate two famous postulates of the Schumpeterian doctrine and its implications for the US economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Analytically, the authors investigate whether sector size matters for sectoral: technological change and stability, as expressed through the relevant quantitative measures and variables. To this end, the authors test a number of relevant models that express the various forms of this relationship. More precisely, the authors use panel data for the 14 main sectors of economic activity in the USA over the period 1957-2006, just before the first signs of the US and global recession made their appearance.

Findings

The results seem to be in line with the Schumpeterian postulate that market size matters for technological change and economic stability, for the US economy (1957-2006). Clearly, further research would be of great interest.

Originality/value

This work contributes to the literature in the following ways: first, it provides an extensive review of the literature on the subject and adopts two relevant methodological approaches. Second, based on these quantitative approaches, the paper offers a complete investigation of two famous postulates of the Schumpeterian theory for the US economy, and it is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to do so by sector of economic activity, in a panel data framework. Third, the paper uses a wide data set (1957-2006) to examine the US economy up until the first signs of the US and global economic recession made their appearance.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 41 no. 10
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-07-2013-0165
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

  • Technology
  • Schumpeter
  • Stability
  • Cycles

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