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Conventional wisdom dictates that there is a positive relationship between governance and growth. This article reexamines this empirical relationship using nonparametric…
Conventional wisdom dictates that there is a positive relationship between governance and growth. This article reexamines this empirical relationship using nonparametric quantile methods. We apply these methods on different levels of countries' growth and governance measures as defined in World Governance Indicators provided by the World Bank. We concentrate our analysis on three of the six measures: voice and accountability, political stability, and rule of law that were found to be significantly correlated with economic growth. To illustrate the nonparametric quantile analysis we use growth profile curves as a visual device. We find that the empirical relationship between voice and accountability, political stability, and growth are highly nonlinear at different quantiles. We also find heterogeneity in these effects across indicators, regions, time, and quantiles. These results are a cautionary tale to practitioners using parametric quantile methods.
The efficient distribution of bank notes is a first-order responsibility of central banks. The authors study the distribution patterns of bank notes with an administrative…
The efficient distribution of bank notes is a first-order responsibility of central banks. The authors study the distribution patterns of bank notes with an administrative dataset from the Bank of Canada’s Currency Inventory Management Strategy. The single note inspection procedure generates a sample of 900 million bank notes in which the authors can trace the length of the stay of a bank note in the market. The authors define the duration of the bank note circulation cycle as beginning on the date the bank note is first shipped by the Bank of Canada to a financial institution and ending when it is returned to the Bank of Canada. In addition, the authors provide information regarding where the bank note is shipped and later received, as well as the physical fitness of the bank note upon return to the Bank of Canada’s distribution centers. K–prototype clustering classifies bank notes into types. A hazard model estimates the duration of bank note circulation cycles based on their clusters and characteristics. An adaptive elastic net provides an algorithm for dimension reduction. It is found that while the distribution of the duration is affected by fitness measures, their effects are negligible when compared with the influence exerted by the clusters related to bank note denominations.
The authors consider how the mode of data collection (Internet vs. paper) alters individuals’ responses to different types of survey questions, including subjective…
The authors consider how the mode of data collection (Internet vs. paper) alters individuals’ responses to different types of survey questions, including subjective, recall, and factual questions. The authors isolate the measurement effect of the mode from the sample selection effect by exploiting predata in a convenience consumer panel. The authors propose using panelists’ reward point balance as exclusion restriction to correct for differing response probabilities by mode, because the reward point balance depends on the timing of the survey invitations and is a source of random variation in response incentive. The authors evaluate average and quantile measurement effects in a mixed-mode Web/paper survey and find statistically significant evidence of mode effects in subjective and recall questions.
Financial systemic risk is often assessed by the interconnectedness of financial institutes (FI) in terms of cross-ownership, overlapping investment portfolios, interbank…
Financial systemic risk is often assessed by the interconnectedness of financial institutes (FI) in terms of cross-ownership, overlapping investment portfolios, interbank credit exposures, etc. Less is known about the interconnectedness between FIs through the lens of consumer credits. Using detailed consumer credit data in Canada, this chapter constructs a novel banking network to measure FIs’ interconnectedness in the consumer credit markets. Results show that FIs on average are more connected to each other over the sample period, with the interconnectedness measure increases by 19% from 2013 Q4 to 2019 Q4. FIs with more diversified portfolios are more connected in the network. Among various types of FIs, secondary FIs have the notable increase in interconnectedness. Domestic Systemically Important Banks and secondary FIs offering a broad range of loan products are more connected to large FIs, while those specialized in single loan types are more connected to their industry peers. FI connectedness is also significantly related to their participation in the mortgage markets.
This chapter proposes a simple procedure to estimate average derivatives in nonparametric regression models with incomplete responses. The method consists of replacing the…
This chapter proposes a simple procedure to estimate average derivatives in nonparametric regression models with incomplete responses. The method consists of replacing the responses with an appropriately weighted version and then use local polynomial estimation for the average derivatives. The resulting estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal, and an estimator of its asymptotic variance–covariance matrix is also shown to be consistent. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed estimator has desirable finite sample properties.
Sampling units for the 2013 Methods-of-Payment survey were selected through an approximate stratified two-stage sampling design. To compensate for nonresponse and…
Sampling units for the 2013 Methods-of-Payment survey were selected through an approximate stratified two-stage sampling design. To compensate for nonresponse and noncoverage and ensure consistency with external population counts, the observations are weighted through a raking procedure. We apply bootstrap resampling methods to estimate the variance, allowing for randomness from both the sampling design and raking procedure. We find that the variance is smaller when estimated through the bootstrap resampling method than through the naive linearization method, where the latter does not take into account the correlation between the variables used for weighting and the outcome variable of interest.
“The Elephant in the Corner: A Cautionary Tale About Measurement Error in Treatment Effects Models” by Daniel L. Millimet discusses the current use of the unobserved-outcome framework to estimate population-averaged treatment effects, and it exposes the sensitivity of these estimators to assumption of no measurement error. The Monte Carlo simulation evidence in this chapter indicates that “nonclassical measurement error in the covariates, mean-reverting measurement error in the outcome, and simultaneous measurement errors in the outcome, treatment assignment, and covariates have a dramatic, adverse effect on the performance of the various estimators even with relatively small and infrequent errors” (Millimet article, p. 1–39). To some extent, all the estimators analyzed by Millimet are based on weak functional form assumptions and use semiparametric or nonparametric methods. Millimet's results indicate the need for measurement error models be they parametric or nonparametric models, see Schennach (2007), Hu and Schennach (2008), and Matzkin (2007) for some recent research in nonparametric approaches. Chapter 7 develops a Bayesian estimator that can handle some of the measurement errors discussed in this chapter.
This research aims to empirically analyze the spatial bank branch network in Canada. The authors study the market structure (both industrial and geographic concentrations…
This research aims to empirically analyze the spatial bank branch network in Canada. The authors study the market structure (both industrial and geographic concentrations) via its own or adjacent postal areas. The empirical framework of this study considers branch density (the ratio of the total number of branches to area size) by employing a spatial two-way fixed effects model. The main finding of this study is that there are no effects associated with market structure, however, there are strong spatial within and nearby effects associated with the socioeconomic variables. In addition, the authors also study the effect of spatial competition from rival banks: they find that large banks and small banks tend to avoid markets dominated by their competitors.
This chapter uses the nonlinear difference-in-difference (NL-DID) methodology developed by Athey and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effects of a treatment program on the…
This chapter uses the nonlinear difference-in-difference (NL-DID) methodology developed by Athey and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effects of a treatment program on the entire distribution of an outcome variable. The NL-DID estimates the entire counterfactual distribution of an outcome variable that would have occurred in the absence of treatment. This chapter extends the Monte Carlo results in Athey and Imbens's (2006) to assess the efficacy of the NL-DID estimators in finite samples. Furthermore, the NL-DID methodology recovers the entire outcome distribution in the absence of treatment. Further, we consider the empirical size and power of tests statistics for equality of mean, medians, and complete distributions as suggested by Abadie (2002). The results show that the NL-DID estimator can effectively be used to recover the average treatment effect, as well as the entire distribution of the treatment effects when there is no selection during the treatment period in finite samples.