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The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating role of public debt in government spending and the informal economy nexus.

By utilizing a data set spanning from 2000 to 2017 of 32 Asian economies, the study has employed the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The study is also extended to consider the marginal effects of government spending on the informal economy at different degrees of public debt.

The results indicate that an increase in government spending and public debt leads to an expansion of the informal economy in the region. Interestingly, the positive effect of government spending on the informal economy will increase with a rise in public debt.

This study stresses the role of government spending and public debt on the informal economy in Asian nations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study pioneers to explore the moderating effect of public debt in the public spending-informal economy nexus.

This paper aims to empirically examine the presence of a balance sheet channel (BSC) of monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) using firm-level panel data of Pakistan. It also explores the role of financial sector development (FSD) and firm age (FAge) in formulating the effect of monetary policy (MP) on the investment decisions of firms.

The authors applied the two-step system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) estimator proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998) to carry out the empirical analysis. The final sample of the study includes 450 nonfinancial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PXS) during the period 1988–2021. The empirical framework of the study is based on the new classical model of investment. Different measures of MP are used to obtain the robust empirical evidence. To take into account the different dimensions of FSD, the index developed by Svirydzenka (2016) is utilized. To examine the moderating role of FSD and FAge, the interacted model is estimated, which enables the authors to estimate the MP effects at different percentiles of the moderating variables.

The study’s findings confirm the existence of BSC by revealing that MP instruments have negative, significant effects on firms’ investment decisions. These findings suggest that during periods of tight MP, firms significantly cut their investment expenditures. The results of the interacted model show that both FSD and FAge play an important role in lessening the adverse effects of MP on firms’ investment policy. Specifically, the calculated total effects suggest that the negative effect of MP on investment is considerably weaker at the higher percentiles of FSD and FAge.

The findings of the study have several important policy implications for different stakeholders. Specifically, the evidence suggests that the monetary authorities should keep in mind the adverse effects of MP while designing tight MP. The tight MP will have a negative effect on firm investment, which, in turn, will adversely affect firm growth and subsequently the growth rate and level of employment in the economy. Thus, during episodes of tight MP, the authorities should provide other facilities such as a friendly tax environment, better legal and regulatory framework, special credit arrangements, and provisions of loan guarantees. The findings of the moderating role suggest that the government may improve FSD to minify the adverse impacts of tight MP. Finally, the findings suggest that the government should design external financing-friendly policies to provide more opportunities to newly established firms to avoid tight MP’s effects.

The findings of the moderating role suggest that the government may improve FSD to minify the adverse impacts of tight MP. Finally, the findings suggest that the government should design external financing-friendly policies to provide more opportunities to newly established firms to avoid tight MP’s effects.

There are three significant contributions of the paper. Firstly, it provides empirical evidence on the existing of BSC of MTM using firm-level panel data spanning over 43 years for an emerging and small economy, namely Pakistan. Secondly, it examines the moderating role of FSD and FAge in formulating the effects of MP. Finally, it presents the total impact of MP at different percentiles of FSD and FAge, which definitely broadens the understanding of MTM through indirect channels.

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.

In developing countries, banks play a major role by acting as a conduit for the effective mobilization of funds from the surplus sectors of an economy for onward lending to the deficit sectors for productive investments that will in turn increase the level of employment and economic growth. There has being a rising trend in unemployment rate in Nigeria and South Africa and hence, the need for the study to assess the effectiveness of banking system credit in curbing unemployment rate by making a comparative analysis of Nigeria and South Africa covering the period of 1991–2018.

The study employed the unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model and VAR impulse response function in determining the relationship between the variables.

The major findings revealed that banking system credit matters in curbing unemployment rate in South Africa than in Nigeria. Also, other macroeconomic factors such as lending rate, inflation rate, Government expenditure and population growth were significant enough in influencing unemployment rate in South Africa than in Nigeria. Foreign direct investment was a significant factor in reducing unemployment rate in Nigeria than in South Africa. The cointegration test showed a long-term relationship between the variables in both countries while the speed of adjustment coefficient of the vector error correction model is faster in South Africa than in Nigeria.

Previous empirical studies on the relationship between banking system credit and unemployment rate have focused much on other regions such as Asia and Europe. Thus, the study is unique as it focused on the African region and also made a comparative analysis by testing the Keynesian theory of employment, interest and money on two emerging African economies which are Nigeria and South Africa.

This paper is an attempt to re-examine the validity of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Indian economy, which is characterised by mounting inequality and liquidity constraints. The authors augment the econometric analysis with two important mediating variables, exchange rate and trade openness, to analyse their impact on current account deficit.

The authors have used a ground-breaking asymmetric cointegration technique proposed by Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the short-run and long-run asymmetric nexus between gross fiscal deficit and current account deficit. In addition, the study has used asymmetric dynamic multipliers to see the dynamics of nonlinear adjustment from disequilibrium in the short run to equilibrium in the long run. The study has also used generalised impulse response functions to check the robustness of our cointegration results.

Using annual time series data from 1970 to 2018, the empirical exercise validates the presence of asymmetries in the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Indian economy. This study's robust findings demonstrate that the two deficits are asymmetrically related in the long run. The authors also found that exchange rate asymmetrically affects current account deficit thus validating the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon. From the causality analysis, the authors infer that there is a weak unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit.

Fiscal deficit may cause current account deficit via changes in other macroeconomic variables that were not taken care of in this study. Therefore, the estimation techniques used in the present study might suffer from the issue of omitted-variable bias. Further research should include other macroeconomic variables where the twin deficit nexus is also influenced by other relevant variables. This will help in disentangling the indirect transmissions by which fiscal deficit translates into current account deficit.

The results from our econometric exercise strongly suggest that the twin deficits are asymmetrically related. From a policy perspective, the asymmetric twin deficit nexus offers strong policy implications for the development of policies that are flexible enough to respond to shifts in internal and external sector dynamics. While framing the mechanism of fiscal prudence, policymakers in emerging countries like India must take into account the regime-changing behaviour of twin deficits.

The present paper is a significant contribution to the existing body of literature by being the first study in India which has analysed the Twin Deficits phenomenon in a nonlinear framework with the incorporation of asymmetric exchange rate dynamics in the model.

The present article aims to estimate an autoregressive vector model covering the period of 1990–2021 to analyze the effect of public spending and monetary supply increases in economic activity in Morocco.

A literature review on the policy of recovery with fiscal and monetary tools and its theoretical foundations was established. Then, an empirical study on the Moroccan context was executed to study the effectiveness of these instruments in Morocco from 1990 to 2021, using autoregressive vector modeling.

The results present a state of a positive relationship and statistical significance of public spending, money supply and economic growth. The impulse response function analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition showed that public spending does not have a large impact on gross domestic product, while the money supply has a real power to stimulate the growth of economic activity in Morocco.

This study aims to demonstrate the positive effect of the coordination of public spending and monetary supply increases on gross domestic product in Morocco. Additionally, the analysis using vector autoregressive modeling, impulse response functions, variance decomposition techniques and causality tests, provides crucial insights to guide researchers, practitioners and policymakers in developing more effective and resilient economic strategies. The findings from this study not only illuminate immediate recovery strategies but also contribute to strengthening the resilience of economies against potential future shocks.

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the potential of the New Deal as a research context in management and organization studies and, in doing so, forward the role one of its chief architects, Harry Hopkins, played in managing the economic crisis. The exploration takes us to multiple layers that work together to form context around Hopkins including the Great Depression, the Roosevelt Administration, and ultimately, the New Deal. By raising Harry Hopkins as an exemplar of historical-narrative exclusion, the authors can advance the understanding of his role in the New Deal and how his actions produced early insights about management (e.g. modern crisis management).

The paper experiments with the methodological assemblage of ANTi-History and microhistorical analysis that the authors call “ANTi-Microhistory” to examine the life narrative of Harry Hopkins, his early association with President Franklin D. Roosevelt and later, the New Deal. To accomplish this, the authors undertake a programme of archival research (e.g. the digital repository of The Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum) and assess various materials (e.g. speeches, biographies and memoirs) from across multiple spaces.

The findings suggest Harry Hopkins to be a much more powerful actor in mobilizing New Deal policies and their effect on early management thought than what was previously accepted. In the process, the authors found that because of durable associations with Roosevelt, key policy architects of the same ilk as Harry Hopkins (e.g. Frances Perkins, Henry Wallace, Lewis Douglas, and others) and their contributions have been marginalized. This finding illustrates the significant potential of little-known historical figures and how they might shed new insight on the development of the field and management practice.

The aim is to demonstrate the potential of engaging historical research in management with the individual – Harry Hopkins – as a unit of analysis. By engaging historical research on the individual – be it well-known or obscure figures of the past – the authors are considering how they contribute to the understanding of phenomena (e.g. New Deal, Progressivism or Keynesian economics). The authors build on research that brings to focus forgotten people, communities and ideas in management studies but go further in advocating for space in the research to consider the scholarly potential of the individual.

The study attempts to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth and public debt of the Indian economy. The authors also attempt to make quarterly projections of economic growth and external debt (ED) for the next five years. The objective is to understand how much time the economy takes to recover and at what pace. Consequently, this study elucidates the composition of debt after the crisis in the next five years.

To predict India's gross domestic product (GDP) and ED for the next five years, the authors used an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. This model was built under a Box–Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) and was subjected to an augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test to check the stationarity of the data. The methodology includes three main steps to estimate and forecast the model: identification, estimation, and diagnostic and forecasting.

The study finds that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has significant implications for economic growth and public debt. The economy faced contraction in the first quarter of the year 2020 due to the suspension of economic activities and still struggling with the negative values of GDP. The forecasting results reveal that ED will continue to grow to meet the increasing health expenditure needs, and GDP will also bounce back slowly after the end of the year 2021. It has been noticed that the recurrent crisis derails the developing economies from the path of sustainable development to a prolonged economic slump with mounting public debt.

The study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth and public debt with particular reference to India. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time the quarterly projections for GDP and ED have been made after the COVID-19 crisis.

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

It has been suggested that homicides in Jamaica are partly driven by conflicts among criminals over funds coming from international lottery scams; most of these funds are channeled into the country via remittances. This study aims to determine the empirical relationship between remittances and homicides in Jamaica over the period 1985–2019.

The authors apply an error correction modelling framework while accounting for indicators of changes in socioeconomic conditions.

There are two. First, the authors find from impulse response analysis of the long-run dynamics that an increase in remittances is associated with an increase in homicides, and vice versa. Second, the authors find that there is bidirectional Granger causality between remittances and homicides in the short run.

Two important implications are that policies should be strengthened to channel remittances to productive and legal investment opportunities and that greater efforts may be needed to stem the flow of funds coming from international lottery scamming and other illegal activities.

This is the first study that examines the dynamic relationship between remittances and homicides in Jamaica from a robust statistical perspective.