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The purpose of this paper is to estimate individual promotional campaign impacts through Bayesian inference. Conventional statistics have worked well for analyzing the…
The purpose of this paper is to estimate individual promotional campaign impacts through Bayesian inference. Conventional statistics have worked well for analyzing the impact of direct marketing promotions on purchase behavior. However, many modern marketing programs must drive multiple purchase objectives, requiring more precise arbitration between multiple offers and collection of more data with which to differentiate individuals. This often results in datasets that are highly dimensional, yet also sparse, straining the power of statistical methods to properly estimate the effect of promotional treatments.
Improvements in computing power have enabled new techniques for predicting individual behavior. This work investigates a probabilistic machine-learned Bayesian approach to predict individual impacts driven by promotional campaign offers for a leading global travel and hospitality chain. Comparisons were made to a linear regression, representative of the current state of practice.
The findings of this work focus on comparing a machine-learned Bayesian approach with linear regression (which is representative of the current state of practice among industry practitioners) in the analysis of a promotional campaign across three key areas: highly dimensional data, sparse data and likelihood matching.
Because the findings are based on a single campaign, future work includes generalizing results across multiple promotional campaigns. Also of interest for future work are comparisons of the technique developed here with other techniques from academia.
Because the Bayesian approach allows estimation of the influence of the promotion for each hypothetical customer’s set of promotional attributes, even when no exact look-alikes exist in the control group, a number of possible applications exist. These include optimal campaign design (given the ability to estimate the promotional attributes that are likely to drive the greatest incremental spend in a hypothetical deployment) and operationalizing efficient audience selection given the model’s individualized estimates, reducing the risk of marketing overcommunication, which can prompt costly unsubscriptions.
The original contribution is the application of machine-learning to Bayesian Belief Network construction in the context of analyzing a multi-channel promotional campaign’s impact on individual customers. This is of value to practitioners seeking alternatives for campaign analysis for applications in which more commonly used models are not well-suited, such as the three key areas that this paper highlights: highly dimensional data, sparse data and likelihood matching.
This chapter is a transcript of an informal conversation between Jack Katz and Keith Hayward that took place in Rome in August 2019. It covers a number of subjects linked…
This chapter is a transcript of an informal conversation between Jack Katz and Keith Hayward that took place in Rome in August 2019. It covers a number of subjects linked to Professor Katz’s academic career, as well as some personal biographical reflections on how his upbringing shaped his sociological thinking about the ‘seductive’ nature of crime and transgression. The chapter also discusses Professor Katz’s various contributions to qualitative research methodology (specifically ‘analytic induction’ and ‘social ontology’), before concluding with a summary of his latest research for the ‘Hollywood neighborhoods’ project and some brief thoughts about future research trajectories.
Becker appoint works manager Becker Equipment & Lifts Ltd., a TI Company of Wembley, have strengthened their manufacturing departments by the appointment of Jeffrey Miller as Works Manager. Becker manufacture the Bexuda range of precise‐volume liquid filling machines, and are the UK's leading manufacturers of electrohydraulic passenger lifts.
Despite widespread interest in the gig economy, academic research on the topic has lagged behind. The present chapter applies organizational theory and research to compose…
Despite widespread interest in the gig economy, academic research on the topic has lagged behind. The present chapter applies organizational theory and research to compose a working model for understanding participation in the gig economy and how gig work may impact worker health and well-being. Drawing from past research this chapter defines the gig economy in all its diversity and advances a framework for understanding why individuals enter into gig economy. Next, the authors discuss how various characteristics of the gig economy and gig workers can be understood as both demands and resources that influence how gig work is likely to be experienced by the individual. To understand how these characteristics are likely to influence worker health and well-being, we draw from past research on alternative work arrangements and entrepreneurship, as well as the limited extant research on the gig economy. Finally, a research agenda is proposed to spur much needed research on the gig economy and its workers.
The present study examined multiple antecedents of organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB) in a Mexican sample of retail salespeople. Although a quota based measure of…
The present study examined multiple antecedents of organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB) in a Mexican sample of retail salespeople. Although a quota based measure of sales performance was correlated with OCB, the correlation was relatively low. However, personality and attitude measures, with conscientiousness having the cleanest relationship, were significantly correlated with OCB. A situational judgment measure was significantly correlated with sales performance. These findings indicate that individual personality facets may be stable predictors of OCB in Mexican samples.
This chapter gives one version of the recent history of evaluation case study. It looks back over the emergence of case study as a sociological method, developed in the…
This chapter gives one version of the recent history of evaluation case study. It looks back over the emergence of case study as a sociological method, developed in the early years of the 20th Century and celebrated and elaborated by the Chicago School of urban sociology at Chicago University, starting throughout the 1920s and 1930s. Some of the basic methods, including constant comparison, were generated at that time. Only partly influenced by this methodological movement, an alliance between an Illinois-based team in the United States and a team at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom recast the case method as a key tool for the evaluation of social and educational programmes.
To what extent can resiliency reduce negative work outcomes to help employees recover from failure? This study investigates how the interaction of trait resiliency and…
To what extent can resiliency reduce negative work outcomes to help employees recover from failure? This study investigates how the interaction of trait resiliency and mistake tolerance play key roles in reducing turnover intention in organizations. Specifically, trait resiliency is hypothesized to be negatively related to managerial turnover intentions. Moreover, the author investigates the interactive role of perceived mistake tolerance as a situational factor that may impact the extent to which resiliency decreases turnover intentions. In a sample of 209 working managers and executives, moderated path modeling reveals that resiliency reduces turnover intentions. Additionally, results suggest a more nuanced view that takes into consideration the interaction of trait resiliency and perceptions of mistake tolerance in reducing turnover intentions.
THE Reference Department of Paisley Central Library today occupies the room which was the original Public Library built in 1870 and opened to the public in April 1871. Since that date two extensions to the building have taken place. The first, in 1882, provided a separate room for both Reference and Lending libraries; the second, opened in 1938, provided a new Children's Department. Together with the original cost of the building, these extensions were entirely financed by Sir Peter Coats, James Coats of Auchendrane and Daniel Coats respectively. The people of Paisley indeed owe much to this one family, whose generosity was great. They not only provided the capital required but continued to donate many useful and often extremely valuable works of reference over the many years that followed. In 1975 Paisley Library was incorporated in the new Renfrew District library service.