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In this study we compared the effectiveness of different ETFs. For this purpose, we analyzed the volatility spillover effect (process) among KOSPI200, KOSPI200 futures and KOSPI200 ETFs such as KODEX200, KOSEF200, KINDEX200, TIGER200 using multi-variate GARCH model. The sample was generated from high frequency data set over the period from 05/24/2009 to 12/29/2011 (669 days). The volatility spillover effect was examined at 1, 5, 10, 30 minute' intervals for each market and the main results are as follows;

First, KODEX200 has the highest correlations with KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures in four ETFs.

Second, all ETFs have a cointegrated relationship with its underlying asset KOSPI200 as KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures do.

Third, in the daily data the volatility spillover among ETFs, KOPSI200 and KOSPI200 futures was investigated in part but it was not consistent.

The fourth, according to the result derived from high-frequency data analysis the volatility spillover effect from KODEX200 to KOSPI200 (KOSPI200 futures) is bigger than that from KOSPI200 (KOSPI200 futures) to KODEX200 while other ETFs are not.

The overall results indicate that KODEX200 which is the biggest ETF in volume performs very important roles in finding the price of underlying asset and further researches can be expected.

This paper examines the price discovery process among the Korea stock index markets using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the multivariate generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH) model. The minute-by-minute price series of the KOSPI200 index, KOSPI200 futures, and KODEX200 are cointegrated.

The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, VECM estimation results indicate that when the cointegrating relationship is perturbed by the arrival of ntis, the KODEX200(ETF) does not adjusted to restore equilibrium. This is the task of the KOSPI200 futures and spot. These two index securities use the KODEX200 to represent the ntioequilibrium price, with the KOSPI200 futures responding faster than the KOSPI200 spot. When the cointegrating relationship betweeiesOSPI200 spot and futues is perturbed by the arrival of ntis, the KOSPI200 spot does adjusted to restore equilibrium. Next, the results from the multivariate GARCH modes indicate that the volatilities of esOSPI200 spot and futures markets suggest unidirectiona1volatility spillover from KOSPI200 futures to KOSPI200 spot. KODEX200(ETF) volatilities spill over bothesOSPI200 spot and futures markets. and this happen in the reverse direction with a strong effect from the KODEX200 to KOSP200 futures and spot.

The overall findings indicate that the KODEX200(ETF) market dominates KOSPI200 futures and spot in the price discovery process. The regulation of Instutional traders on trading on futures markets explains its superior price discovery function.

It is known that the National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea contributes to the market stability because it tends to pursue the negative feedback trading strategy in the Korean stock market. While many studies deal with institutional investors’ trading in the financial derivatives market, the NPS’s trading in the derivatives market is rarely studied. Using the NPS’s trading data for the period from January 2010 to March, 2020, the authors examine the transactions of the NPS in the KOSPI200 futures market. We find that the NPS’s net investment flow (NIF) in KOSPI200 futures is negatively associated with the past returns of KOSPI200 futures and the KOPI200 index. However, we also find that the NPS’s NIF of KOSPI200 futures is positively associated with its NIF in KOSPI200 stocks. Along with the legal restriction on the NPS’s trading in the derivatives market, the result suggests that the NPS uses KOSPI200 futures to deviate the problems related to non-synchronous trading in the spot market. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first study of the NPS’s transactions of KOSPI200 futures. The paper suggests that the NPS does not trade KOSPI200 futures for hedging or arbitrage profit but for complementing its transactions in the spot market of KOSPI200 stocks.

The National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea is one of the largest institutional investors in the world and it has been known as the market stabilizer in the Korean stock market. Nevertheless, it is hard to find the research about the impact of the NPS on the futures market. We investigated the effect of the NPS’s trading KOSPI200 futures on the returns, the liquidity and the volatility of the market using the recent ten years’ transaction data. The main findings are as follows. First, the NPS’s net investment flow (NIF) in the KOSPI200 futures market shows the predictability about the returns of both KOSPI200 futures and KOSPI200 spot index. Second, the NPS’s NIF in the KOSPI200 futures market improves the liquidity of the KOSPI market, where the transactions involved in both the spot market and the futures market occur. Third, the NPS’s NIF in the KOSPI200 futures market reduces the volatility of both the KOSPI200 futures market and the KOSPI market. Unlike the prior studies showing that our futures market tends to increase the volatility of the stock market through the volatility transfer, our finding suggests that the NPS’s trading KOSPI200 futures contributes to decreasing the volatility in both markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first study that investigates the impact of the NPS’s trading KOSPI200 futures on the KOSPI200 futures market and the stock market. It shows that the NPS plays a role of the market stabilizer in the futures market. In addition, the NPS’s trading KOSPI200 futures also affects the KOSPI stock market, stabilizing it in terms of both the liquidity and the volatility.

This study is to examine the unblasedness hypothesis and hedging effectiveness in KOSPI20() futures market. The unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis is carried out using a cointegration methodology. And hedging effectiveness is measured by comparing hedging performance of the naive hedge model, OLS hedge model. and constant correlation bivariate GARCH (1. 1) hedge model based on rolling windows. The sample period covers from May. 3. 1996 to December. 8, 2005.

The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, there exists the cOintegrating relationship between realized spot prices and futures prices of the 10 day. 22 day. 44 day. and 59 day prior to maturity. Second. futures prices of backward the 10 day. 22 day. 44 day from maturity provide unbiased forecasts of the realized spot prices. The KOSPI200 futures price is likely to predict accurately future KOSPI200 spot prices without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Third. for shorter maturity. the futures price appears to be the best forecaster of spot price. Forth, bivariate GARCH hedging effectiveness outperforms the naive and OLS hedging effectiveness.

The implications of these findings show that KOSPI200 futures market behaves as unbiased predictor of future spot price and risk management instrument of KOSPI200 spot portfolio.

This paper presents 6 time-series that have negative correlation with KOSPI200 Index and a quantitative trading methodology based on stochastic control chart using these time-series. The proposed quantitative trading framework detects trade (long or short) timing by monitoring whether a time-series touches 4 trigger lines, which play a role as control limits in control chart. In other words, a time-series upwardly touches one of trigger line, then the framework take a short position on KOSPI200 Index Futures, while in case of downward touch, it takes a long position. The 6 time-series are derived from VKOSPI and USD Futures Index that are negatively correlated with KOSPI200 Index, and have a significance that prevents disclosure of trading strategies by processing and transforming the original time-series. Computational experiments using real KOSPI200 futures index for recent 4 years are conducted to show the excellence of the proposed investment strategies against benchmark strategies under quantitative trading framework.

This study examines the bid/ask spread and its components in the KOSPI200 options market under the framework of the cross-market model, which utilizes the order flow information of both KOSPI200 futures and options markets. We also compare the results by the single-market model (MRR model; Madhavan et al., 1997) and by the cross-market model (Ryu (2011)’s extension). This comparison suggests that the cross-market approach can mitigate the underestimation of the permanent spread component of OTM options and the overestimation of the component of ITM options, which are often detected when we directly apply the single market model into the KOSPI200 options market where the ITM options are relatively illiquid while the OTM options are extremely liquid. We also find that the effect of the order flow information of the futures market on the option spread and its permanent spread component will vary depending on the option moneyness and the intraday time period. This implies that the order flow of the futures market has more significant effects if the degree of informed trading is relatively high.

This study presents a new informed trading probability measure VPIN (Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) to estimate toxic order flow of KOSPI200 index futures in a high frequency world. This measure does not require to estimate non-observable parameters as PIN. Also, it is estimated based on volume time, so it can estimate toxicity of order flow in a high frequency world. We show a relation between KOSPI200 index futures VPIN and futures market volatility using correlation and conditional probability distribution. A main empirical result is that persistently high VPIN signifies a high risk of subsequent large futures market volatility. It means that VPIN is a useful measure to estimate a toxicity induced volatility.

This paper aims to provide the necessity to activate long-term exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) in Korea. In the era of aging, low interest rates and low economic growth, the investment demand for long-term financial products, and its hedging demand have steadily increased. Unfortunately, long-term ETD do not trade in Korea, and this study presents political suggestions to invigorate long-term ETD based on overseas cases and empirical analysis. Specifically, this study suggests the necessity to activate exchange traded funds (ETFs) options, long-term Korea treasury bond futures and options and long-term Volatility Index of Korea Composite Stock Price Index future and options. The introduction of those long-term ETD not only contributes to providing long-term investment and hedging vehicles but also reduces market inefficiencies in the Korean industry of ETFs, bonds and structured products.

Margin requirements are often viewed as an effective policy tool to prevent the default risk and maintain market stability. For the Korean futures market, this paper examines whether the margin requirements work normally as a tool to prevent default risk and margin changes have impact on futures trading activity. KOSPI200 stock index futures, USD (U.S. Dollar) futures, and 3-year KTB (Korean Treasury Bond) futures are included in the sample for the period from 2010 to 2015. Using the simulation method assuming the worst situation, we find that the possibility of default occurs once for KOSPI200 futures, twice for 3-year KTB futures, and 7 times for USD futures during the sample period. This result suggests that active margin requirement policy is necessary to prepare for financial market turbulence. In addition, we find that the margin changes do not have a significant impact on the futures trading activity, suggesting that decreases in margins are not effective means to improve liquidity in the Korean futures market