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Olalekan Shamsideen Oshodi and Ka Chi Lam

Fluctuations in the tender price index have an adverse effect on the construction sector and the economy at large. This is largely due to the positive relationship that…

Abstract

Fluctuations in the tender price index have an adverse effect on the construction sector and the economy at large. This is largely due to the positive relationship that exists between the construction industry and economic growth. The consequences of these variations include cost overruns and schedule delays, among others. An accurate forecast of the tender price index is good for controlling the uncertainty associated with its variation. In the present study, the efficacy of using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for tender price forecasting is investigated. In addition, the Box–Jenkins model, which is considered a benchmark technique, was used to evaluate the performance of the ANFIS model. The results demonstrate that the ANFIS model is superior to the Box–Jenkins model in terms of the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. The ANFIS could provide an accurate and reliable forecast of the tender price index in the medium term (i.e. over a three-year period). This chapter provides evidence of the advantages of applying nonlinear modelling techniques (such as the ANFIS) to tender price index forecasting. Although the proposed ANFIS model is applied to the tender price index in this study, it can also be applied to a wider range of problems in the field of construction engineering and management.

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Fuzzy Hybrid Computing in Construction Engineering and Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-868-2

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David Levinson and Lei Zhang

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities were turned off for 8 weeks in the Fall of 2000. This paper analyzes traffic data collected in this experiment on travel time variability…

Abstract

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities were turned off for 8 weeks in the Fall of 2000. This paper analyzes traffic data collected in this experiment on travel time variability with and without ramp metering for several representative freeways during the afternoon peak period. Travel time variability is generally reduced with metering. However, it is found that ramp meters are particularly helpful for long trips relative to short trips. The annual benefits from reducing travel time variability with meters are estimated to be $33.1 million, compared to the annual ramp metering costs of $2.6 million in the Twin Cities metro area. Thus, the impact on travel time variability should be captured in future ramp metering benefit/cost analysis.

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The Network Reliability of Transport
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-044109-2

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Article

Wing-Keung Wong

This paper aims to give a brief review on behavioral economics and behavioral finance and discusses some of the previous research on agents' utility functions, applicable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to give a brief review on behavioral economics and behavioral finance and discusses some of the previous research on agents' utility functions, applicable risk measures, diversification strategies and portfolio optimization.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors also cover related disciplines such as trading rules, contagion and various econometric aspects.

Findings

While scholars could first develop theoretical models in behavioral economics and behavioral finance, they subsequently may develop corresponding statistical and econometric models, this finally includes simulation studies to examine whether the estimators or statistics have good power and size. This all helps us to better understand financial and economic decision-making from a descriptive standpoint.

Originality/value

The research paper is original.

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Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Anthony Chen, Zhaowang Ji and Will Recker

Travel time variability has generally been recognized as one of the most important attributes in travelers' route choice decisions. In fact, many empirical studies have…

Abstract

Travel time variability has generally been recognized as one of the most important attributes in travelers' route choice decisions. In fact, many empirical studies have indicated that both passengers and freight carriers are strongly averse to travel time variability, because it introduces uncertainty to their route choice decisions. In this chapter, we examine the effect of incorporating travel time variability and risk-taking behavior into the route choice models and its impact on the estimation of travel time reliability under demand and supply variations.

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The Network Reliability of Transport
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-044109-2

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Article

Liping Wang, Pu Zhang, Pei Zhang, Rongbo Li, Yanke Zhang and Yueqiu Wu

Public–private partnership (PPP) projects are increasingly significant in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of critical success factors…

Abstract

Purpose

Public–private partnership (PPP) projects are increasingly significant in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of critical success factors (CSFs) on PPP projects and comprehensively consider the interrelations and interaction among dimensions and factors to achieve a better understanding of PPP project management.

Design/methodology/approach

An evaluation index system for PPP projects such as the presented case study is proposed based on a literature review and a survey. Then, interpretative structural modeling is used to transform the CSFs dimension into a multi-level hierarchical model to reflect the driven-dependency relation of each dimension; the fuzzy analytic network process model optimized by moment estimation theory is used to investigate the impact of CSFs by considering their internal impact.

Findings

Regarding the project used as the case study, the driving force and dependence for driving layer and dependent layer are determined. Moreover, in driving layer, efficient and well-structured payment mechanism is the most important CSF if considering the internship and interaction among CSFs, and efficient and well-structured payment mechanism and good governance provide most positive interaction; in dependent layer, population of beneficiaries is the most important CSF if considering the internship and interaction among CSFs, and public client’s satisfaction provides most positive interaction.

Originality/value

This paper developed an evaluation model to explore the interrelationships of dimensions and factors and then determine the impact of CSFs. The model propose in this paper relaxes the independence assumptions of traditional methods and is more in line with reality; besides, weighting method is optimized to obtain more objective and reasonable evaluation results. Through an empirical study, the validity of the model has been verified; therefore, the study can help project stakeholders better understand the CSFs and further improve project performance.

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Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 25 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article

Udayan Sharma and Madhumita Chakraborty

In the current study, the significance of extreme positive returns has been investigated in the pricing of stocks in the Indian equity market. This study aims to…

Abstract

Purpose

In the current study, the significance of extreme positive returns has been investigated in the pricing of stocks in the Indian equity market. This study aims to understand if investors in India have a preference for lottery-like stocks. The existing literature provides support for MAX effect in several countries, where risk seeking in the form of gambling is an acceptable form of social behavior, suggesting a preference for lottery-like stocks. This motivates the authors to investigate whether such preference for lottery-like stocks is prevalent in a country such as India with a different cultural setting, where gambling is not socially and legally encouraged.

Design/methodology/approach

The MAX effect is tested in the Indian market for the period from January 2003 to March 2017. The average number of firms per month in this study is 2,949. Univariate and bivariate portfolio-level analyses, as well as Fama MacBeth regressions, are conducted to observe the difference between average raw and risk-adjusted returns between the stocks lying in the highest and lowest MAX deciles. Several tests have been performed for checking the robustness of the findings.

Findings

Unlike the extant literature, the authors have not found any evidence of a negative relationship between extreme positive returns and expected returns. The univariate and bivariate analyses suggest that high MAX deciles over-perform low MAX deciles. Fama Macbeth regressions also do not support the negative relationship documented for other markets. This suggests that investors are not euphoric about lottery-like stocks in India. One may devise profitable trading strategies by going long on high MAX deciles and short on low MAX deciles.

Originality/value

This study finds a behavioral aspect of Indian investors, which seems to be in contrast to that of other countries. While there is a strong preference for lottery-like stocks in other markets, investors in India do not end up overpaying for such stocks in the market. This tendency might be an outcome of a different social and regulatory setting in India. In view of the fact that India is increasingly becoming an important investment destination, it becomes important to devise investment strategies based on the peculiarities of this market rather than simply extrapolating the findings of other markets.

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Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Article

K.T. FUNG

The relationship between the search problem and entropy identified by Pierce is used to show that the entropy maximization technique can also be applied to the data…

Abstract

The relationship between the search problem and entropy identified by Pierce is used to show that the entropy maximization technique can also be applied to the data distribution problem. An immediate result is that a previously validated entropy model for the data distribution problem can now be more formally developed.

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Kybernetes, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Abstract

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Team Work Quality
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-263-9

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Article

Wei‐Jaw Deng, Wen Pei and Chih‐Hung Tsai

Decision makers in the service industry must effectively cope with queuing problems, service capacity optimization, service efficiency and service quality problems. This…

Abstract

Decision makers in the service industry must effectively cope with queuing problems, service capacity optimization, service efficiency and service quality problems. This study proposes a computer simulation‐enabled MCDM framework that integrates computer simulation analysis, Taguchi method, expert opinion and multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) to assist decision makers in coping with decision problems. In this framework, Taguchi method is adopted to reduce the time required for the simulation experiment. Computer simulation analysis is adopted to obtain useful information for rapid decision‐making without interrupting actual production. MCDM is used to select the optimal alternative. The illustrative result is extremely promising.

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Asian Journal on Quality, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1598-2688

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Hui Zhang, Shu Cole, Xiucheng Fan and Myungja Cho

As the hospitality industry is shifting its focus from service to experience, customers are becoming co-creators of the perceived value of a hospitality service because…

Abstract

As the hospitality industry is shifting its focus from service to experience, customers are becoming co-creators of the perceived value of a hospitality service because experiences customers obtained when consuming a hospitality service involve the participation of the customers. Thus, more research is needed to examine the relationships among consumer’s personal factors and their evaluations of hospitality services. This study developed and tested hypotheses that examined the effects of customers’ intrinsic characteristics on their evaluations of a restaurant service. Data were collected from college students in the United States (n = 220) and China (n = 254) using a scenario approach. Findings reveal that customers’ gender, personality, and cultural background had significant effects on their evaluations of a restaurant service. Specifically, female customers rated the same service higher than male customers on the reliability dimension of service quality and overall service quality; customers with personalities of extroversion, conscientiousness, agreeableness, and openness rated the service higher than customers with neuroticism personality on the responsiveness dimension; and customers in individualistic cultures rated the service higher than those in collectivistic cultures on most of the service evaluation measures. Implications of the study’s findings are discussed.

Details

Advances in Hospitality and Leisure
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-174-9

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