This chapter focuses on the state-of-the-art modeling approaches used in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and the frameworks for researching and operationalizing…
This chapter focuses on the state-of-the-art modeling approaches used in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and the frameworks for researching and operationalizing individual and group models of performance, knowledge, and interaction. We adapt several ITS methodologies to model team performance as well as individuals’ performance of the team members. We briefly describe the point processes proposed by von Davier and Halpin (2013), and we also introduce the Competency Architecture for Learning in teaMs (CALM) framework, an extension of the Generalized Intelligent Framework for Tutoring (GIFT) (Sottilare, Brawner, Goldberg, & Holden, 2012) to be used for team settings.
The purpose of this article is to provide some further empirical evidence on the ex ante forecasting performance of the three major independent modelling groups in the…
The purpose of this article is to provide some further empirical evidence on the ex ante forecasting performance of the three major independent modelling groups in the United Kingdom, namely, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NI), the Centre for Economic Forecasting of the London Business School (LBS) and the Liverpool Modelling Group (LI). The motivation for our analysis is threefold. First is the fact that according to many forecasting practitioners, the ultimate test of an econometric model is its predictive ability.
Reviews the literature on trade union membership in OECD countries.After considering the ways in which trade union membership is measured,trends in both membership and…
Reviews the literature on trade union membership in OECD countries. After considering the ways in which trade union membership is measured, trends in both membership and density since 1970 are examined. When cross‐sectional determinants are considered, density is found to be unrelated to size of employment in the manufacturing sector and the share of female employment, but it is related to the level of collective bargaining and the size of the public sector. An examination of individual and job‐related characteristics finds membership is higher among males, those with family responsibilities, those with lower occupational status and those with low educational achievements and that job dissatisfaction and left‐wing views are also important. Time‐series studies find that while union growth and decline are linked to the business cycle, with wages, prices and unemployment affecting membership, economic factors are not the sole explanation. Concludes by surveying the causes of union decline since 1980, together with recent error‐correction and cointegration approaches to modelling trade union membership.
Peston points out that the conventional measure of unemployment (the number of persons unemployed) is inadequate as a measure of the social and economic costs of unemployment. He outlines a new approach which consists of weighting the number of unemployed in, say, each occupation, by a relative wage rate. This paper takes up Peston's suggestion and extends it to other measures of the labour market. Attempts are then made to obtain numerical estimates of these measures and compare them with the more conventional measures.
Welfare states are sets of rules and policies that redistribute resources across social classes and across generations. In nearly all western nations, social spending on…
Welfare states are sets of rules and policies that redistribute resources across social classes and across generations. In nearly all western nations, social spending on the aged has surpassed spending on all other age groups combined. In 1992 alone, spending in the U.S. on Social Security topped $250 billion and on Medicare $130 billion.
Past research has shown that forecast combination typically improves demand forecast accuracy even when only two component forecasts are used; however, systematic bias in…
Past research has shown that forecast combination typically improves demand forecast accuracy even when only two component forecasts are used; however, systematic bias in the component forecasts can reduce the effectiveness of combination. This study proposes a methodology for combining demand forecasts that are biased. Data from an actual manufacturing shop are used to develop the methodology and compare its accuracy with the accuracy of the standard approach of correcting for bias prior to combination. Results indicate that the proposed methodology outperforms the standard approach.
The impact of the “Great Recession” on inequality is unclear. Because the crises in the housing and stock markets and mass job loss affect incomes across the entire distribution, the overall impact on inequality is difficult to determine. Early speculation using a variety of narrow measures of earnings, income, and consumption yield contradictory results. In this chapter, we develop new estimates of income inequality based on “more complete income” (MCI), which augments standard income measures with those that are accrued from the ownership of wealth. We use the 1989–2007 Surveys of Consumer Finances, and also construct MCI measures for 2009 based on projections of assets, income, and earnings.
We investigate the level and trend in MCI inequality and compare it to other estimates of overall and “high incomes” in the literature. Compared to standard measures of income, MCI suggests higher levels of inequality and slightly larger increases in inequality over time. Several MCI-based inequality measures peaked in 2007 at their highest levels in 20 years. The combined impact of the Great Recession on the housing, stock, and labor markets after 2007 has reduced some measures of income inequality at the top of the MCI distribution. Despite declining from the 2007 peak, however, inequality remains as high as levels experienced earlier in the decade, and much higher than most points over the last 20 years. In the middle of the income distribution, the declines in income from wealth after 2007 were the result of diminished value of residential real estate; at the top of the distribution, declines in the value of business assets had the greatest impact.
We also assess the level and trend in the functional distribution of income between capital and labor, and find a rising share of income accruing to real capital or wealth from 1989 to 2007. The recent economic crisis has diminished the capital share back to levels from 2004. Contrary to the findings of other researchers, we find that the labor share of income among high-income groups declined between 1992 and 2007.
In this volume, we have studied the cyclical behavior of numerous business cycle indicators from the U.S. transportation sector and studied how they are related to those…
In this volume, we have studied the cyclical behavior of numerous business cycle indicators from the U.S. transportation sector and studied how they are related to those of the overall economy. Our study began with the conceptualization of what constitutes the transportation services sector, identifying relevant monthly indicators from the private sector and the government, and finally putting them together to construct a monthly measure of output of the transportation services sector. The challenge was to develop an indicator that will be available promptly soon after a month with other widely reported monthly indicators such as the index of industrial production, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys, CPI, index of leading indicators, etc. and is not subject to much data revisions. Since monthly activity measures of major transportation services sectors such as trucking and railroads are produced by private membership organizations, use of these data in the production of official statistics in the public sector needed skillful persuasion of government officials. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) releases the preliminary number for the latest month and replaces the number for the oldest preliminary month with a revised number. All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the transportation services output (TSI). It is gratifying to see that the arrangement of cooperation between the transportation department and these private service organizations are working out seamlessly, and TSI continues to get the media attention.