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The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact…
The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial economic crisis on the transition economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. As there is a low level of the Kyrgyz Republic’s integration into the global financial and economic processes, it is obvious that channels of transmissions are different.
The empirical model is the vector autoregression approach. The quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 of the remittances from abroad, trade volumes, exchange rates, credits, deposits and liquidity of the banking system, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were used in the empirical analysis.
The authors found a significant positive relation between transmission channels such as remittances flow, banking sector, international trade and GDP within the first six months. Thus, a decline in the aforementioned variables has a significant affirmative effect on the country’s GDP. Notwithstanding, the exchange-rate channel adversely influences GDP. Thereby, the depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in GDP.
The study findings allow the Kyrgyz policymakers to foresee the global crisis transmission through the primary channels of transmission mechanism. Nevertheless, a decrease of the deposit level by 1 per cent leads to 2.91 per cent decline in FDI inflows. On the contrary, an increase of the exchange rate by 1 per cent leads to 1.54 per cent decrease in imports.
The crowding-out and crowding-in effects have been at the core of arguments among economists regarding the influence of government spending on private investment. This…
The crowding-out and crowding-in effects have been at the core of arguments among economists regarding the influence of government spending on private investment. This study aims to examine the crowding-out (or -in) effect of public spending on private investment in the transition economy of Kyrgyzstan.
The empirical model is an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the vector autoregression approach (VAR). Monthly data from 2005 to 2013 of the private investment, government expenditures, remittances from abroad and broad money data were used in the empirical analysis.
The authors found that an increase in government purchases leads to rise in private investment. More precisely, the public spending crowds-in private investment at the speed with 2.06 months. On the other hand, despite the fact that remittances to GDP ratio has reached to almost 30 per cent, there is no any statistically significant effect between these variables. On the contrary, it was revealed that the broad money has statistically significant, affirmative effect on private investment. Furthermore, findings of the VAR model support the results of ARDL. The variance decomposition demonstrates that private investment shock accounts for 58.16 per cent in government expenditures, 11 per cent in broad money and 5 per cent in remittances.
The results of the study allow policymakers to demonstrate that the growth of national economy of the Kyrgyz Republic may be encouraged by expanding public investment with external source assistance such as grants and international loans. Accordingly, efficient use of those external funds is one of the suggested ways for economic development. Nevertheless, expansionary monetary and fiscal policy may be beneficial for economic growth in Kyrgyzstan.