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This paper uses survival analysis to investigate fiscal distress in special district governments. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue…
This paper uses survival analysis to investigate fiscal distress in special district governments. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, and negatively correlated with organizational slack and entity resources. Our model addresses differences in district functions, financing and legislation. Our regression model predicts the likelihood of fiscal distress and correctly classifies 93.4 percent of the districts as fiscally distressed or not. The results show that the most important indicator of fiscal distress is a low level of capital expenditures relative to total revenues and bond proceeds. The information needed to predict fiscal distress is publicly available, making our model useful in the prevention, detection, and mitigation of fiscal distress in U.S. districts.
This paper investigates the financial risk factors associated with fiscal distress in local governments. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with…
This paper investigates the financial risk factors associated with fiscal distress in local governments. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, while negatively correlated with administrative costs and entity resources. The regression model results in a prediction of the likelihood of fiscal distress, which correctly classifies up to 91% of the sample as fiscally distressed or not. The model also allows for an analysis of the impact of a change in a risk factor on the likelihood of fiscal distress. A decrease in intergovernmental revenues as a percent of total revenues and an increase in administrative expenditures as a percent of total expenditures have the biggest influences on reducing the likelihood of fiscal distress.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to assess and rank the financial risk of a municipal government (“municipality”). Financial risk is the likelihood that a…
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to assess and rank the financial risk of a municipal government (“municipality”). Financial risk is the likelihood that a municipality will experience financial distress.
Logistic regression is used with financial indicators to assess the level of financial risk. Then, the municipalities are ranked according to their financial risk. As predictor variables for the regression model, indicators are used that were developed by a Pennsylvania state agency to monitor the financial condition of municipalities.
Financial risk is positively associated with debt service, population, tax effort, and public service on roadways, while negatively correlated with intergovernmental revenues, operating position, user charges, capital outlays, fund balances, and tax revenue concentration. The financial risk model is able to correctly classify up to 99 percent of municipalities as either at risk or not at risk of financial distress.
The financial risk model was developed using data from one state in the USA. Further research is needed to test the model’s application to other states and countries.
Financial risk is on the rise since the Great Recession. This study may be used by municipal managers, citizens, creditors, and regulators to assess and rank the financial risk of a municipality.
This study provides a method of classifying municipalities as either at risk or not at risk of financial distress. Previous models of the financial condition of municipalities do not provide a method of assessing and ranking financial risk.
This research provides accounting-ethics authors and administrators with a benchmark for accounting-ethics research. While Bernardi and Bean (2010) considered publications…
This research provides accounting-ethics authors and administrators with a benchmark for accounting-ethics research. While Bernardi and Bean (2010) considered publications in business-ethics and accounting’s top-40 journals this study considers research in eight accounting-ethics and public-interest journals, as well as, 34 business-ethics journals. We analyzed the contents of our 42 journals for the 25-year period between 1991 through 2015. This research documents the continued growth (Bernardi & Bean, 2007) of accounting-ethics research in both accounting-ethics and business-ethics journals. We provide data on the top-10 ethics authors in each doctoral year group, the top-50 ethics authors over the most recent 10, 20, and 25 years, and a distribution among ethics scholars for these periods. For the 25-year timeframe, our data indicate that only 665 (274) of the 5,125 accounting PhDs/DBAs (13.0% and 5.4% respectively) in Canada and the United States had authored or co-authored one (more than one) ethics article.
The design and implementation of new strategic management initiatives, such as reengineering, have been common since the publication of Hammer and Champy’s (1993) popular…
The design and implementation of new strategic management initiatives, such as reengineering, have been common since the publication of Hammer and Champy’s (1993) popular book on reengineering. In the process of designing and implementing these new initiatives, however, managers have virtually ignored the cost management system. Activity‐based management (ABM) is a system that incorporates many of the concepts of strategic management reengineering and applies them to cost management. ABM consists of two viewpoints: a cost view and a process view. ABM is both an accurate cost accounting system (the cost view) and a performance evaluation tool (the process view). This paper presents the ten steps to design and implement an ABM system and offers an actual application.
Long-run changes in living standards occupy an important place in development and growth economics, as well as in economic history. An extensive literature uses heights to…
Long-run changes in living standards occupy an important place in development and growth economics, as well as in economic history. An extensive literature uses heights to study historical living standards. Most historical heights data, however, come from selected subpopulations such as volunteer soldiers, raising concerns about the role of selection bias in these results. Variations in sample mean heights can reflect selection rather than changes in population heights. A Roy-style model of the decision to join the military formalizes the selection problem. Simulations show that even modest differential rewards to the civilian sector produce a military heights sample that is significantly shorter than the cohort from which it is drawn. Monte Carlos show that diagnostics based on departure from the normal distribution have little power to detect selection. To detect height-related selection, we develop a simple, robust diagnostic based on differential selection by age at recruitment. A companion paper (H. Bodenhorn, T. Guinnane, and T. Mroz, 2017) uses this diagnostic to show that the selection problems affect important results in the historical heights literature.
The purpose of this paper is to understand the nature of competition for private donations that occurs between not-for-profit organisations (NPOs). This competition occurs…
The purpose of this paper is to understand the nature of competition for private donations that occurs between not-for-profit organisations (NPOs). This competition occurs because NPOs do not produce commercially viable outputs and therefore rely on donations. The financial sustainability of NPOs is problematic, both individually and in economy-wide terms, as they do not produce commercial saleable outputs. Instead they raise funds by either relying on government grants or competing for private donations. Sustainability of NPOs becomes an even greater issue when governments reduce their grant-giving in times of stress – precisely the time when calls on NPOs’ resources increase.
The research asks the question, do donation-raising expenditures by NPOs increase donations or do they damagingly divert donations from other NPOs? Using Australian data, competition between NPOs for donations is analysed using a modified oligopoly market model. NPO fundraising expenditures are central to this model, but other factors, including unpaid-volunteers, organisational size and age, are also explanatory variables in determining success in fundraising. NPOs concerned with human welfare, other than specialised aged care, are the primary focus of this paper, although other NPOs such as those concerned with animal welfare, science and the arts are also modelled.
Crucially an NPO’s fundraising expenditure has a direct and positive impact on its level of donations. A major influence on level of donations is the presence of volunteers within an NPO. There seems to be an interesting reciprocal relationship between the effect of size and age of organisations on their donations and the effect on fundraising. Critically for sustainability, NPOs competing for funds are established as having a negative effect on the level of donations to other NPOs with similar functions.
It is believed that the material used here represents one of the first studies of financial sustainability of NPOs and highlights the value of both accounting and economic analysis of organisations’ operations. Financial sustainability issues are compounded by the existence of competition for funds among charities operating in the same areas (Parsons, 2003; Trussel and Greenlee, 2004; Trussel and Parsons, 2008); it has been argued that competition for funds diminishes sustainability (Lyons, 2001; Weerawandena et al., 2010).
The purpose of this research is to examine fiscal health of a specific local enterprise operation: seaports. Seaports provide unique local services while spending and…
The purpose of this research is to examine fiscal health of a specific local enterprise operation: seaports. Seaports provide unique local services while spending and borrowing billions of dollars. Decision makers should be aware of the fiscal health of these enterprises in part to assess the potential risks to the fiscal health of the government at large or public authority. Using eight stock and flow fiscal indicators appropriate for enterprise activities, this research examines eight seaports to compare fiscal health by geographic location and governing structure as well as the connection between long-term and short-term fiscal measures. Descriptive measures suggest that western and public authority ports exhibit better fiscal health than southern and departmental ports with some evidence showing a modest link between long-term and short-term fiscal health.
The statement of the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, coming so quickly after the ban on the use of cyclamates in food and drink in the United States, indicates that the new evidence of carcinogenesis in animals, placed at the disposal of the authorities by the U.S. F.D.A., has been accepted; at least, until the results of investigations being carried out in this country are available. The evidence was as new to the U.S. authorities as to our own and in the light of it, they could no longer regard the substances as in the GRAS class of food additives. It is, of course, right that any substance of which there is the slightest doubt should be removed from use; not as the result of food neuroses and health scares, but only on the basis of scientific evidence, however remote the connection. It is also right that there should always be power of selection by consumers avoidance is usually possible with other things known to be harmful, such as smoking and alcohol; in other cases, especially with chemical additives to food and drink, there must be pre‐knowledge, so that those who do not wish to consume food or drink containing such additives can ascertain from labelling those commodities which contain them.
Construction is a highly dynamic environment with numerous interacting factors that affect construction processes and decisions. Uncertainty is inherent in most aspects of…
Construction is a highly dynamic environment with numerous interacting factors that affect construction processes and decisions. Uncertainty is inherent in most aspects of construction engineering and management, and traditionally, it has been treated as a random phenomenon. However, there are many types of uncertainty that are not naturally modelled by probability theory, such as subjectivity, ambiguity and vagueness. Fuzzy logic provides an approach for handling such uncertainties. However, fuzzy logic alone has some limitations, including its inability to learn from data and its extensive reliance on expert knowledge. To address these limitations, fuzzy logic has been combined with other techniques to create fuzzy hybrid techniques, which have helped solve complex problems in construction. In this chapter, a background on fuzzy logic in the context of construction engineering and management applications is presented. The chapter provides an introduction to uncertainty in construction and illustrates how fuzzy logic can improve construction modelling and decision-making. The role of fuzzy logic in representing uncertainty is contrasted with that of probability theory. Introductory material is presented on key definitions, properties and methods of fuzzy logic, including the definition and representation of fuzzy sets and membership functions, basic operations on fuzzy sets, fuzzy relations and compositions, defuzzification methods, entropy for fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers, methods for the specification of membership functions and fuzzy rule-based systems. Finally, a discussion on the need for fuzzy hybrid modelling in construction applications is presented, and future research directions are proposed.