Search results

1 – 7 of 7
To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 June 1976

Jib Fowles

“A mad hatter's tea party” is the way one reporter describe the October 1975 Limits to Growth Conference. In his view something thoroughly silly was going on at that…

Abstract

“A mad hatter's tea party” is the way one reporter describe the October 1975 Limits to Growth Conference. In his view something thoroughly silly was going on at that meeting in Houston. But, as in Alice in Wonderland, whatever nonsense there may have been on the surface, profound matters were the true subject of the conference. Some day that reporter may wake up and wonder how he failed to see the significance of the debate over growth. By that time we could be firmly in the clutches of no‐growth policies.

Details

Planning Review, vol. 4 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0094-064X

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 June 1999

Abdul Khakee

In order to implement the sustainable development principles of Agenda 21 some municipalities in Sweden have developed scenarios for sustainable local societies. These…

Abstract

In order to implement the sustainable development principles of Agenda 21 some municipalities in Sweden have developed scenarios for sustainable local societies. These scenarios differ from the two previous generations of scenarios in the sense that they require the participation of citizens in their preparation and implementation. This article discusses the premises of the three generations of scenarios: expert, hybrids and participatory. It describes the efforts to prepare a participatory scenario by the municipal government of Orebro (Sweden) in order to provide guidelines for a sustainable society. The article also discusses a method for preparing such a scenario.

Details

Foresight, vol. 1 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 24 August 2012

Sohail Inayatullah

Based on a report to the non‐profit organization, The Foundation for the Future, this article aims to review methodological approaches to forecasting the long‐term future.

Abstract

Purpose

Based on a report to the non‐profit organization, The Foundation for the Future, this article aims to review methodological approaches to forecasting the long‐term future.

Design/methodology/approach

This is not an analysis of the particular content of the next 500 or 1,000 years but a comparative analysis of methodologies and epistemological approaches best utilized in long‐range foresight work. It involves an analysis of multiple methods to understand long‐range foresight; literature review; and critical theory.

Findings

Methodologies that forecast the long‐term future are likely to be more rewarding – in terms of quality, insight, and validity – if they are eclectic and layered, go back in time as far as they go in the future, that contextualize critical factors and long‐term projections through a nuanced reading of macrohistory, and focus on epistemic change, the ruptures that reorder how we know the world.

Research limitations/implications

The article provides frameworks to study the long‐range future. It gives advice on how best to design research projects that are focused on the long‐term. Limitations include: no quantitative studies were used and the approach while epistemologically sensitive remains bounded by Western frameworks of knowledge.

Practical implications

The article provides methodological and epistemological guidance as to the best methods for long range foresight. It overviews strengths and weaknesses of various approaches.

Originality/value

This is the only research project to analyze methodological aspects of 500‐1,000 year forecasting. It includes conventional technocratic views of the future as well as Indic and feminist perspectives. It is among the few studies to link macrohistory and epistemic analysis to study the long‐term.

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 April 2003

Stephen M. Millett

Corporate and institutional managers don’t get the full return on investment in scenarios that they should, nor do they employ scenarios on the full range of corporate…

Abstract

Corporate and institutional managers don’t get the full return on investment in scenarios that they should, nor do they employ scenarios on the full range of corporate issues suited to this methodology. Most often, scenarios are used by top management to provide a better understanding of the range of possible business environments they must contend with in the future. But mid‐level managers often grumble that these big picture “strategic scenarios” don’t address the competitive issues and the critical decisions that they face in the trenches of their business. To achieve more consistently productive uses of scenarios, there are several major challenges that must be addressed for the future of the scenario method: resolve the confusion over the definitions and methods of scenarios; and clarify and enlarge the appropriate application of scenarios. Beyond the confusion caused by the different definitions and methods of scenarios lies the uncertainty about when and how to apply scenarios in the business environment. In addition to planning and forecasting, scenarios can be used for market research and new product development. A major debate revolves around whether or not scenarios have successfully developed into a tool for investment and company decision‐making. One view has been that scenarios provide context, but not direct inputs for such decisions (R&D priorities, new products, and financial investments). This approach emphasizes the role of scenarios in team building, information gathering, learning, and strategic thinking. It advocates using scenarios primarily as a tool for corporate learning and for changing corporate culture. Another view, however, holds that scenarios can and should be used for near‐term business decision‐making. Scenarios need to be applied to the numerous operational issues that companies face. As such, they are a key method of analysis, especially for highly uncertain circumstances.

Details

Strategy & Leadership, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1087-8572

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 June 2001

Peter Bishop

In his editorial earlier this year, “Measuring the art of the long view”, Colin Blackman wondered how we might evaluate the effectiveness of futures research. But are…

Abstract

In his editorial earlier this year, “Measuring the art of the long view”, Colin Blackman wondered how we might evaluate the effectiveness of futures research. But are there any reliable measures? There’s certainly a case for accreditation and certification of futurists, but in the end there’s no escaping the judgment of the market.

Details

Foresight, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 February 1979

M. Balachandran

Until recently, results of significant research in the field of economics were communicated to the scholarly world mostly through the conventional medium of journal…

Abstract

Until recently, results of significant research in the field of economics were communicated to the scholarly world mostly through the conventional medium of journal articles. Not only have such journals proliferated in number, but the manuscript turnover time has increased considerably, resulting in delay, in the dissemination of current developments. Last year economics joined a few other disciplines with the publication of its first letters journal, consisting of short communications or “Letters,” which provides a rapid medium to announce new results, models and methods. Published by North Holland, the new monthly, entitled appropriately Economics Letters, will carry research communications of not more than four pages each. Readers may also recall that in my previous state of the art survey (RSR v6 n1, 1978, p21), I had briefly noted the institution of an annual series by the JAI Press devoted to current and ongoing research in business and economics.

Details

Reference Services Review, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0090-7324

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 January 2013

Stephen M. Millett

The author, a veteran futurist, aims to trace the history of the scenario process, starting with those developed by the Shell team that anticipated an OPEC manipulation of

Abstract

Purpose

The author, a veteran futurist, aims to trace the history of the scenario process, starting with those developed by the Shell team that anticipated an OPEC manipulation of oil supplies and prices that occurred in 1973. Largely on the basis of the Shell scenario's brilliant insight, the methodology initially seemed to offer organizations a chance to bet on the future before it happened.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper describes how the best practices in the scenario process identified in this historical review can be adopted by current leaders.

Findings

The paper reveals that, in cases where the scenarios have effectively influenced corporate decision making, it was because the scenario team stayed together to execute the foresights they reached in the scenario process.”

Practical implications

Scenarios encourage strategic thinking about long‐term futures and potential discontinuities in a world that obsesses about the short‐term.

Originality/value

The paper concludes that scenarios, to be most effective, demand a rigor that consumes time and resources. They require leaders to open conduits to information, promote group interactions, encourage disciplined imagination and demand persistent follow‐through.

1 – 7 of 7