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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…

Abstract

Purpose

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Findings

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

Research limitations/implications

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

Practical implications

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Social implications

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2022

Jarmo Vakkuri

This paper reflects on Sven Modell's (2022) study discussing uses of institutional theorising for studying performance measurement and management (PMM) in the public sector…

1006

Abstract

Purpose

This paper reflects on Sven Modell's (2022) study discussing uses of institutional theorising for studying performance measurement and management (PMM) in the public sector context. The paper provides arguments for critically analysing the assumptions and characteristics of PMM research.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the paper addresses PMM as a field of research linking scientific disciplines, schools of thought and academic scholars. Second, the paper discusses the role of institutional theorising in PMM research. Third, the paper analyses and reviews Modell's ideas on the future prospects of PMM research. The paper also elaborates on the ideas presented in Modell's paper.

Findings

Modell's paper suggests sociology of valuation and the discussion on hybrid governance as future developments for PMM research. This paper provides a conceptual perspective to link these areas together. Furthermore, the paper contributes to understanding PMM as a multi-disciplinary, inter-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary research area.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the conceptualizations of values, valuation and hybridity in PMM research from the viewpoint of institutional theory.

Details

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, vol. 34 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1096-3367

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 July 2020

Jarmo Saarti and Kimmo Tuominen

Although resource sharing between scholars is evolving rapidly, This paper uses paper-based interlibrary lending (ILL) procedures in the service repertoire of academic libraries…

2383

Abstract

Purpose

Although resource sharing between scholars is evolving rapidly, This paper uses paper-based interlibrary lending (ILL) procedures in the service repertoire of academic libraries. However, the current business model of acquiring toll-access journals and e-books does not seem to fit very well with traditional ILL practices. In addition, the new models of peer-to-peer resource sharing between academics seem to be much more effective than ILL. Scholars arrange access to the needed publications by using legal (buying, exchanging) and illegal means (Sci-Hub, etc.). Furthermore, the demands for open access have increased, voiced not only by librarians and science funders but also by politicians. This development might change the scholarly publication ecosystem, even though older publications are still likely to remain closed.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper contrasts the ILL and usage statistics of Finnish university libraries with the use of ResearchGate, a popular academic social network, which we treat as an example of a peer-to-peer sharing service.

Findings

Based on the data, there seems to be a change of paradigm in the resource sharing: the traditional ILL seems to be decreasing and becoming more like a niche service and the digital use and use of social media peer-to-peer resource sharing applications seem to increase rapidly.

Originality/value

The paper examines current resource sharing trends. The analysis is based on the data of Finnish resource sharing, interlibrary lending and ResearchGate usage.

Details

Information Discovery and Delivery, vol. 49 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-6247

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 December 2021

Giuseppe Grossi, Jarmo Vakkuri and Massimo Sargiacomo

Drawing upon theoretical insights on value creation perspectives, the authors aim to advance the understanding of performance and accountability in different hybrid organisations.

5553

Abstract

Purpose

Drawing upon theoretical insights on value creation perspectives, the authors aim to advance the understanding of performance and accountability in different hybrid organisations.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors conceptualise common theoretical origins of hybrid organisations and how they create and enact value, by reflecting on the Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal (AAAJ) special issue articles. Furthermore, the authors propose an agenda for future research into accounting, performance and accountability for hybrid organisations.

Findings

Hybrid organisations can be conceptualised through their approaches to value creation (mixing, compromising and legitimising). This article provides a more detailed understanding of accounting, performance and accountability changes in hybrid organisations.

Practical implications

This contribution also has relevant practical implications for actors, such as politicians, managers, professionals, auditors, controllers and accountants, encased in various hybrid organisations, policy contexts and multi-faceted interfaces between public, private and civil society.

Originality/value

Hybridity lenses reveal novel connections between different types of hybrid organisations and how they create and enact multiple values.

Details

Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0951-3574

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 August 2001

151

Abstract

Details

Microelectronics International, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1356-5362

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 17 July 2007

Abstract

Details

Advances in Library Administration and Organization
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-484-3

Content available
Article
Publication date: 23 March 2010

Steve Thornton

408

Abstract

Details

Performance Measurement and Metrics, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1467-8047

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 12 June 2013

Abstract

Details

Mergers and Alliances: The Wider View
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-479-4

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 12 June 2013

Abstract

Details

Mergers and Alliances: The Wider View
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-479-4

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 15 June 2022

Abstract

Details

Auditing Practices in Local Governments: An International Comparison
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-085-7

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