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Article
Publication date: 8 February 2016

Satish Kumar and Rajesh Pathak

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW) and January effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs; USD-(Indian rupee…

1335

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW) and January effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs; USD-(Indian rupee) INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from January, 1999 to December, 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square regression analysis is used to examine the presence of DOW and January effect to test the efficiency of the Indian currency market. The sample period is later divided into two sub-periods, that is, pre- and post-2008 to capture the behavior of returns before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Further, the authors also use the non-parametric technique, the Kruskal-Wallis test, to provide robustness check for the results.

Findings

The results indicate that the returns during Monday to Wednesday are positive and higher than the returns on Thursday and Friday which show negative returns. The returns during January are found to be higher than the returns during rest of the year. Further, all currencies exhibit significant DOW and January effects in pre-crisis period, however, post-crisis; these effects disappear for all currencies indicating that the markets have become more efficient in the later time. The findings can be further attributed to the increased intervention in the forex markets by the Reserve Bank of India after the crisis.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might not be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in some particular currencies taking the advantage of DOW or January effect which in turn indicates that the currency markets have become more efficient with time. The results are in conformity with those reported for the developed markets. The results might be appealing to the practitioners as well in a way that they can consider the state of financial market for financial decision making.

Originality/value

The authors provide the first study to examine the calendar anomalies (DOW and January effect) across a range of emerging currencies using 16 years of data from January, 1999 to December, 2014. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study has yet examined these calendar anomalies in the currency markets using data which covers two important periods, pre-2008 and post-2008.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 42 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 August 2018

Satish Kumar

This study aims to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW), January and turn-of-month (TOM) effect in 20 currency pairs against the US dollar, from January, 1995 to…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW), January and turn-of-month (TOM) effect in 20 currency pairs against the US dollar, from January, 1995 to December, 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square with GARCH (1,1) framework is used to examine the presence of DOW, January and TOM effect to test the efficiency of the currency markets. The sample period is later divided into two sub-periods of equal length, that is, from 1995 to 2004 and 2005 to 2014, to explore the time-varying behavior of the calendar anomalies. Further, the authors also use the non-parametric technique, the Kruskal–Wallis test, to provide robustness check for the results.

Findings

For the DOW effect, the results indicate that the returns on Monday and Wednesday are negative and lower than the returns on Thursday and Friday which show positive and higher returns. The returns of all the currencies are higher (lower) in January (TOM trading days) and lower (higher) during rest of the year (non-TOM trading days). However, these calendar anomalies seem to have disappeared for almost all currencies during 2005 to 2014 and indicate that the markets have achieved a higher degree of efficiency in the later part of the sample.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might not be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in some particular currencies taking the advantage of DOW, January or TOM effect, which in turn indicates that the currency markets have become more efficient with time. The results might be appealing to the practitioners as well in a way that they can consider the state of financial market for financial decision-making.

Social implications

The findings of lower returns on Monday and Wednesday and high returns during Thursday and Friday for all the currencies indicate that the foreign investors can take the advantage by going short on Monday and Wednesday and long on Thursday and Friday. Similarly, the returns of all the currencies are higher (lower) in January (TOM trading days) and lower (higher) during rest of the year (non-TOM trading days). During this period, investors in the currency markets could benefit themselves by taking long (short) positions in January (TOM trading days) and short (long) positions during rest of the year (non-TOM trading days).

Originality/value

The author provides a pioneer study on the presence of calendar anomalies (DOW, TOM and the January effect) across a wide range of currencies using 20 years of data from January 1995 to December 2014. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no study has examined the presence of January effect in the currency market; therefore, the author provides the first study in which January effect in a number of currencies is investigated.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2015

Kathryn E. Easterday

The purpose of this paper is to examine the January effect, a well-documented capital markets pricing anomaly in which January return premiums are observed to be on average higher…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the January effect, a well-documented capital markets pricing anomaly in which January return premiums are observed to be on average higher than in other months of the year. Extant literature focusses primarily on investor trading behaviors and incentives. This study is different in that it investigates the link between the unusually high returns characteristic of the January effect and accounting earnings, a popular measure that investors use to judge firm value.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical model used in this study is derived from the analytical framework of Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995), which explains returns as a function of current and future accounting earnings. Isolating firms that exhibit January effect return premiums from those that do not offers a deeper look at the characteristics of the anomaly. Regression analyses are carried out using a modified Fama-MacBeth (1973) methodology. Quarterly earnings and returns data are drawn from Compustat and CRSP.

Findings

The main finding is that the association between January returns and first quarter earnings is unexpectedly and significantly negative, not positive as predicted by the model. Coefficient signs for the other three quarters behave as expected. Additional analyses highlight a difference in the returns-earnings association between firms affected by the anomaly and those that are not. Robustness checks indicate that the findings are not spurious.

Originality/value

Rather than applying trading or multifactor economic models that rely on some level of market inefficiency or irrational investor behavior, this study uses an accounting valuation approach that relies on neither. The unexpected negative association between January effect returns and earnings suggests that other factor(s) besides earnings may play into valuation judgments for investors in such firms, and invites further research.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 30 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2017

Chieh-Shuo Chen, Jia-Chi Cheng, Fang-Chi Lin and Chihwei Peng

The house money effect is proposed to describe that people appear to consider large or unexpected wealth gains to be distinct from the rest of their wealth, and are thus more…

1935

Abstract

Purpose

The house money effect is proposed to describe that people appear to consider large or unexpected wealth gains to be distinct from the rest of their wealth, and are thus more willing to gamble with such gains than they ordinarily would be. On the other hand, the availability heuristic describes that people tend to have a cognitive and systematic bias due to their reliance on easily available or associational information. The purpose of this paper is to employ these behavioral perspectives in an empirical model regarding the January anomaly to explore investor behavior in Taiwanese stock market with bonus culture and well-known electronics industry.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the conventional and standard dummy variable regression model, as employed in prior studies, and further includes some control variables for firm, industry and macro-economic level factors. Moreover, 19 industrial indices for Taiwanese stock market over the period January 1990 to December 2014 are included in this study to examine the hypotheses, except for the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis period of 2007-2009 to avoid the potential effect. On the other hand, the authors also use the entire sample period of 1990-2014 for understanding whether the magnitude of January effect is different.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that Chinese bonus payments in January induce a strong January effect in the Taiwanese stock market, especially when most listed firms have positive earnings growth in the preceding year, suggesting a house money effect. Moreover, this study further provides some preliminary evidence that the higher January returns due to bonus culture are apparent only in the electronics industry when both Chinese New Year and bonus payments are in January, implying the role of availability heuristic based on the electronics stocks in investor behavior before the impending stock exchange holidays. Some robust tests show qualitative support.

Research limitations/implications

The major contribution of this study is to extend the existing research by incorporating cultural and industrial factors with behavioral finance, thus enriching the literature on the causes of seasonality for Asian stock markets.

Practical implications

This study also has behavioral implications of investments for investors in the Taiwanese stock market, especially for foreign institutional investors which pay close attention to this market.

Originality/value

This study first applies and examines the culture bonus hypothesis with regard to how employees who receive culture bonuses in January can change their attitudes toward risk and induce the January effect from the concept of mental accounting. Moreover, this study further proposes and examines the extended culture bonus hypothesis related to how the January effect due to culture bonus is different for the electronics and non-electronics industries when taking into account the stock market holidays from the concept of availability heuristic.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 55 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2011

Julia Chou, Praveen Kumar Das and S.P. Uma Rao

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the seasonal effect in the value premium puzzle. It studies whether the book‐to‐market effect is an outcome of the January effect

1425

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the seasonal effect in the value premium puzzle. It studies whether the book‐to‐market effect is an outcome of the January effect observed among stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses returns of portfolios based on size and BE/ME ratios as Fama and French suggest to define value premium and investigate the seasonality of the BE/ME effect. The paper tests whether the value premiums observed among large and small stocks are different in January and non‐January months. It examines the turn‐of‐the‐year effect on the value premium by analyzing the returns of BE/ME portfolios during the first and last ten trading days of a calendar year.

Findings

Empirical evidence supports the fact that value premium has different patterns in January and non‐January months for large and small capitalization firms. It was found that large stocks have a significant value premium only in January and this high January value premium among large stocks is mainly driven by loser stocks at the turn of the year. In contrast with large stocks, the value premium of small stocks occurs only in non‐January months.

Originality/value

This paper shows that value premium of large and small stocks are different in January and non‐January months. Furthermore, the past performance of stocks plays a key role in the observed January value premium among large stocks. Finally, this study provides evidence to show that the value premium among large stocks may be explained by investor trading behavior.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 37 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 June 2008

Christos Floros

The paper aims to investigate the monthly and trading month effects in the stock market returns of the ASE using daily data before and after the crisis of 1999‐2001. In addition…

1923

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to investigate the monthly and trading month effects in the stock market returns of the ASE using daily data before and after the crisis of 1999‐2001. In addition, the study seeks to consider data from both periods of the ASE, before and after the upgrade of the market (May 2001).

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the calendar effects in the Greek stock market returns using an ordinary least squares (OLS) model. Daily closing prices of the General ASE Index, FTSE/ASE‐20 and FTSE/ASE Mid 40 are used to calculate daily returns. The time period includes data from 26 November 1996 to 12 July 2002 for General ASE Index, 23 September 1997‐30 August 2001 for FTSE/ASE‐20 and 8 December 1999‐30 August 2001 for FTSE/ASE Mid 40.

Findings

The results show that there is no January effect. In other words, daily returns are not higher in January than in any other month. Moreover, the results for the trading month effect show higher (but not significant) returns over the first fortnight of the month.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings are strongly recommended to financial managers dealing with Greek stock indices.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper is to provide evidence using data before and after the financial crisis of 1999‐2001 in Greece.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 34 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 2018

Meher Shiva Tadepalli and Ravi Kumar Jain

Market efficiency suggests that price of the security must reflect its intrinsic value by impounding all the available and accessible information. Asset pricing in capital markets…

Abstract

Purpose

Market efficiency suggests that price of the security must reflect its intrinsic value by impounding all the available and accessible information. Asset pricing in capital markets has been an exceptionally dynamic area of scholarly research and is considered as a barometer for assessing market efficiency. This phenomenon was very well explained by several market pricing models and theories over the last few decades. However, several anomalies, which cannot be explained by the traditional asset pricing models due to seasonal and psychological factors, were observed historically. The same has been studied by several researchers over the years and is well captured in the literature pertaining to market asset pricing. The purpose of this paper is to revisit the research studies related to a few asset pricing anomalies, collectively referred to as “calendar anomalies”, such as – day-of-the-week, turn-of-the-month, turn-of-the-year and the holiday effects. In this pursuit, a thorough survey of literature in this area, published over the last 80 years (from 1934 to 2016) across 24 prominent journals, has been made and presented in a comprehensive, structured and chronologically arranged major findings and learnings. This literature survey reveals that the existing literature do provide a great depth of understanding around these calendar anomalies often with reference to specific markets, the size of the firm and investor type. The paper also highlights a few aspects where the existing literature is silent or provides little support leaving a gap that needs to be addressed with further research in this area.

Design/methodology/approach

The goal of the study requires a comprehensive review of the past literature related to calendar anomalies. As a consequence, to identify papers which sufficiently represent the area of study, the authors examined the full text of articles within EBSCOHost, Elsevier-Science direct, Emerald insight and JSTOR databases with calendar anomalies related keywords for articles published since inception. Further, each article was classified based on the anomaly discussed and the factors used to sub-categorize the anomaly. Once all the identified fields were populated, we passed through another article by constantly updating the master list till all the 99 articles were populated.

Findings

It is also important to understand at this juncture that most of the papers surveyed discuss the persistence of the asset pricing anomalies with reference to the developed markets with a very few offering evidences from emerging markets. Thus leaving a huge scope for further research to study the persistence of asset pricing anomalies, the degree and direction of the effect on asset pricing among emerging markets such as India, Russia, Brazil vis-a-vis the developed markets. Further, regardless of the markets with reference to which the study is conducted, the research so far appears to have laid focus only on the overall market returns derived from aggregate market indices to explain the asset pricing anomalies. Thus leaving enough scope for further research to study and understand the persistence of these anomalies with reference to various strategic, thematic and sectoral indices in various markets (developed, emerging and underdeveloped countries) across different time periods. It will be also interesting to understand how, some or all of, these established asset pricing anomalies behave over a certain time period when markets move across the efficiency maturity model (from weak form to semi-strong to strong form of efficiency).

Originality/value

The main purpose of the study entails a detailed review of all the past literature pertinent to the calendar anomalies. In order to explore the prior literature that sufficiently captures the research area, various renowned databases were examined with keywords related to the calendar anomalies under scope of current study. Furthermore, based on the finalized articles, a comprehensive summary table was populated and provided in the Appendix which gives a snapshot of all the articles under the current assessment. This helps the readers of the article to directly relate the findings of each article with its background information.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 33 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 March 2021

Rattaphon Wuthisatian

The study examines the existence of calendar anomalies, including the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect and the January effect, in the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Abstract

Purpose

The study examines the existence of calendar anomalies, including the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect and the January effect, in the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Design/methodology/approach

Using daily stock returns from March 2014 to March 2019, the study performs regression analysis to examine predictable patterns in stock returns, the DOW effect and the January effect, respectively.

Findings

There is strong evidence of a persistent monthly pattern and weekday seasonality in the Thai stock market. Specifically, Monday returns are negative and significantly lower than the returns on other trading days of the week, and January returns are positive and significantly higher than the returns on other months of the year.

Practical implications

The findings offer managerial implications for investors seeking trading strategies to maximize the possibility of reaching investment goals and inform policymakers regarding the current state of the Thai stock market.

Originality/value

First, the study investigates calendar anomalies in the Thai stock market, specifically the DOW effect and the January effect, which have received relatively little attention in the literature. Second, this is the first study to examine calendar anomalies in the Thai stock market across different groups of companies and stock trading characteristics using a range of composite indexes. Furthermore, the study uses data during the period 2014–2019, which should provide up-to-date information on the patterns of stock returns in Thailand.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 49 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 2006

Mahendra Raj and Damini Kumari

This paper attempts to investigate the presence of seasonal effects in the Indian stock market.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper attempts to investigate the presence of seasonal effects in the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper tests the efficiency of the Indian stock market through a number of hypotheses. Week day effects, day‐of‐the‐week, weekend, January and April effects are examined by applying a variety of statistical techniques.

Findings

The results are interesting and contradict some of the findings found elsewhere. The negative Monday effect and the positive January effects are not found in India. Instead the Monday returns are positive while Tuesday returns are negative.

Research limitations/implications

The seasonal effects in the Indian market have been examined by the two major indices, the Bombay Stock Exchange Index and the National Stock Exchange Index. However, it must be remembered that the Indian economy became deregulated from 1991 and this may have had an impact on the markets.

Practical implications

This study indicates that the Indian stock market does not exhibit the usual seasonal anomalies such as Monday and January effect. The absence of Monday effect could be due to the settlement period in Indian market. That the tax year ends in March and December has no special significance may explain the non‐existence of January

Originality/value

Most of the studies on anomalies have dealt with the developed markets. The Indian market has its unique Badla financing, settlement period duration and trading regulations. The presence/absence of the anomalies may provide support to some of the hypotheses used to explain them.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 1 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 November 2021

Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Kabir Hassan, Md. Mamunur Rashid, Md. Sumon Ali and Md. Naiem Hossain

In this study, the authors evaluate seven calendar anomalies’–the day of the week, weekend, the month of the year, January, the turn of the month (TOM), Ramadan and Eid festivals…

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, the authors evaluate seven calendar anomalies’–the day of the week, weekend, the month of the year, January, the turn of the month (TOM), Ramadan and Eid festivals–effects in both the conventional and Islamic stock indices of Bangladesh. Also, the authors examine whether these anomalies differ between the two indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors select the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) Broad Index (DSEX) and the DSEX Shariah Index (DSES) of the DSE as representatives of the conventional and Islamic stock indices respectively. To carry out the investigation, the authors employ the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) typed models from January 25, 2011, to March 25, 2020.

Findings

The study’s results indicate the presence of all these calendar anomalies in either conventional or Islamic indices or both, except for the Ramadan effect. Some significant differences in the anomalies between the two indices (excluding the Ramadan effect) are detected in both return and volatility, with the differences being somewhat more pronounced in volatility. The existence of these calendar anomalies argues against the efficient market hypothesis of the stock markets of Bangladesh.

Practical implications

The study’s results can benefit investors and portfolio managers to comprehend different market anomalies and make investment strategies to beat the market for abnormal gains. Foreign investors can also be benefited from cross-border diversifications with DSE.

Originality/value

To the authors’ knowledge, first the calendar anomalies in the context of both conventional and Islamic stock indices for comparison purposes are evaluated, which is the novel contribution of this study. Unlike previous studies, the authors have explored seven calendar anomalies in the Bangladesh stock market's context with different indices and data sets. Importantly, no study in Bangladesh has analyzed calendar anomalies as comprehensively as the authors’.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 48 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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