Search results

Very much more might be done to improve the quality of our food supplies by the great organisations that exist for the avowed object of furthering the interests of traders in foodstuffs. It is no exaggeration to say that these organisations claim, and rightly claim, to speak in the aggregate on behalf of great commercial interests involving the means of livelihood of thousands of people and the most profitable disposal of millions of money. The information that they possess as to certain trade methods and requirements is necessarily unique. Apart from the commercial knowledge they possess, these organisations have funds at their command which enable them to obtain the best professional opinions on any subjects connected with the trades they represent. Their members are frequently to be found occupying positions of responsibility as the elected representatives of their fellow‐citizens on municipal councils and other public bodies, where the administration of the Food Laws and prosecutions under the Food and Drugs Acts are often under discussion. Such organisations, then, are in a position to afford an unlimited amount of valuable help by assisting to put down fraud in connection with our food supply. The dosing of foods with harmful drugs is, of course, only a part of a very much larger subject. It is, however, typical. Assuming the danger to public health that arises from the treatment of foods with harmful preservatives, the continued use of such substances cannot but be in the long run as harmful to the best interests of the traders as it is actually dangerous to public health. The trade organisations to which reference has been made might very well extend their sphere of usefulness by making it their business to seriously consider this and similar questions in the interests of public health, as well as in their own best interests. It is surely not open to doubt that a great organisation, numbering hundreds, and perhaps thousands of members, has such a membership because individual traders find it to their interest, as do people in all walks of life, to act more or less in common for the general advantage ; and, further, that it would not be to the benefit of individual members that their connection with the organisation should terminate owing to their own wrong‐doing. The executives of such trade organisations hold a sufficiently strong position to enable them to bring strong pressure to bear on those who are acting in a way that is contrary to the interests of the public generally, and of honest traders in particular, by adulterating or misbranding the food products that they gain their living by selling. It should also be plain that such trade organisations could go a long way towards solving many of the very vexed questions that arise whenever food standards and limits, for example, form the subject of discussion. These problems are not easy to deal with. The difficulties in connection with them are many and great; but such problems, however difficult of solution, are still not insoluble, and an important step towards their solution would be taken if co‐operation between those who are acting in the interests of hygienic science and those who are acting in the interests of trade could be brought about. If this could be accomplished the unedifying spectacle of alleged trade interests and the demands of public health being brought, as is so often the case, into sharp conflict, would be less frequent, and there can be no doubt that general benefit would result.

This work shows that it is possible to link various economic and property attributes to the value of a commercial property over time in a particular market, and arrive at a valuation pattern which can be used to give a short‐term forecast of valuation fluctuations using longitudinal rather than cross‐sectional analysis. Shows that it is possible to do this by using a novel process we have termed “backtrack valuations” or “backtracking”. The method proposed creates a simulated historic record of valuations, from which a neural network can be trained and then used as a model to estimate a forward trend. This is allied to the requirement in the RICS Appraisal and Valuation Manual (Red Book) whereby the valuer may be instructed to provide Estimated Realisation Price which depends on completion taking place on a future date as compared with Open Market Value where achievement of completion is assumed at the date of valuation. There is also the new definition of “Forecast of Value” in the RICS Red Book and we suggest that the valuer would find the technique of forecasting from backtracked time series of interest and use in both these particular circumstances. The source of data for the investigation was Richard Ellis, International Property Consultants, who provided monthly valuations of 16 major commercial properties in Central London. Our forecasts are presented alongside the subsequent Richard Ellis valuations. The results confirm that in the conditions obtaining in this market, it is feasible to predict capital valuations in the short term. The method is being extended and tested in the wider commercial markets.

An International Exhibition of Hygiene, Arts, Handicrafts, and Manufactures will be held in the Crystal Palace, Madrid, from September to November next, under the patronage of the Spanish Government. The participation of British exhibitors is particularly desired by the promoters, who state that the attendant expenses will be small. His Excellency the Spanish Minister of Commerce will be the Honorary President; the President of the Committee will be his Excellency the Duke of Tamames and Galisteo, Grandee of Spain, Senator, and ex‐Governor of Madrid. The American war on the one hand, and political changes on the other, have had the effect of seriously damaging the credit of Spain, and many exporters, in view of then existing difficulties, refused to trade until affairs became mere settled. To‐day, however, the Spanish Government are making every effort to restore the economical prosperity of their country. Markets have gained strength, commerce has quadrupled, imports have trebled, and exchange is greatly improved. Well‐advised manufacturers sell in quantity and at good prices, the demand being greater than the supply. Again, the immense natural richness of the Iberian Peninsula, which has not yet received the attention of enterprising and powerful capitalists in any proportion to its value, makes Spain one of those countries where industrial progress is the more certain. The decision to hold this exhibition is evidently a wise one, and considerable advantages may accrue to British manufacturers and merchants taking part therein. There appear to be ample guarantees to show that the undertaking may be supported with every confidence. We understand that all detailed particulars with reference to this important exhibition can be obtained from the Spanish representative in London, Mr. A. DONDERIS, Spanish Arts Exhibition, Compton House, 99A, Charing Cross Road, London, W.C.

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy.

The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation.

Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive accuracy and capability of being used within the mass appraisal industry.

The methodology first tested that the data set had neglected non‐linearity which suggested that a non‐linear modelling technique should be applied. Given the capability of ANNs to model non‐linear data, this technique was used along with an OLS regression model (baseline model) and two non‐linear multiple regression techniques. In addition, the models were evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and their capability of use within the mass appraisal environment.

Previous studies which have compared the predictive performance of an ANN model against multiple regression techniques are inconclusive. Having superior predictive capability is important but equally important is whether the technique can be successfully employed for the mass appraisal of residential property. This research found that a non‐linear regression model had higher predictive accuracy than the ANN. Also the output of the ANN was not sufficiently transparent to provide an unambiguous appraisal model upon which predicted values could be defended against objections.

The research provides an informative view as to the efficacy of ANN methodology within the real estate field. A number of issues have been raised on the applicability of ANN models within the mass appraisal environment.

This work demonstrates that ANNs whilst useful as a predictive tool have a limited practical role for the assessment of residential property values for property tax purposes.

The work has taken forward the debate on the usefulness of ANN techniques within the mass appraisal environment.

The report recently issued by the joint committee, appointed by various Administrative Counties and County Boroughs in the North of England, to inquire into the subject of milk contamination, is an important document to which reference was made in the last number of this journal. Unfortunately little permanent good is likely to result from such reports unless the circumstances which have given rise to the grave faults to which attention is called be dealt with by authority. Such reports are admittedly of great interest. They contain much valuable and important matter, and are full of first‐hand and reliable evidence collected by experts at the expenditure of much time and trouble. As a general rule, however, they are too technical in their wording to appeal directly either to the general public or to the ordinary milk dealer. Still, the bearing of the matters they refer to on the every‐day life and health of the nation is so great that they should not be allowed to sink into oblivion by failure to bring their essential features before the wider public to which they are in tended to appeal. On these grounds the suggestion contained in the report that a pamphlet, should he issued containing the results of the committee's investigations is an excellent one. The means that are taken from time to time to rouse public interest in the important and allied questions of meat and milk are unfortunately characterised by their spasmodic, if vigorous, nature. The agitation dies down after a time and is not renewed until perhaps the original question again rises in a sufficiently acute form. The work has then to be done over again. It is necessary to bring home to the public the importance of, say, a pure milk supply, but to produce a permanent impression it is needful to proceed by an educational process and not by one that is based on unorganised agitation. The methods pursued in the United States in relation to food questions are not always to be commended, but in relation to the educational methods to which reference has just been made we may usefully consider the means adopted by the State authorities of the Republic. They are in the first place nothing if not practical. There, as here, the greatest hope of a would‐be reformer lies in his being able to rouse up public opinion. Hence we find questions such as these are kept steadily to the front by the authorities, by means of official publications and the public press, with the avowed object of enlisting the trade on the side of the law to aid in keeping food products up to reasonable standards of quality. In a report recently issued by the State Agricultural Station of Kentucky dealing with the question of the milk supplied to the town of Louisville it is said that the result of inquiries instituted by the station showed “the large majority of dairymen to be anxious to co‐operate with the officials in the enforcement of all fair regulations; that they need help in an educational way and are eager for any practical information which will help them to better their plants; that to accomplish this both the State and the city should maintain, not at the dairyman's expense, sufficient experts in dairying science, and veterinarians to constantly inspect the districts, helping wherever possible, not only pointing out deficiencies, but suggesting remedies, and, finally, reporting for prosecution or withdrawing the permit of the dairyman not complying with the regulations necessary to produce wholesome milk.” What is said in this report might equally well apply to affairs on this side of the water as regards the milk supply. The authorities in Kentucky have had exactly the same problems to face and deal with as those referred to in the report of the Joint Committee. The same want of attention to cleanliness, to light, ventilation, and drainage in the cowshed; the same unpleasant methods of dealing with the milk during the process of transport; and the same want of cleanliness in the shop characterised many of the small and large dealers in Kentucky as in this country. For all that we cannot assume the milk dealer or cowkeeper to be invariably in the wrong through malice aforethought. The Kentucky report just quoted states that the time and money spent in telling the cowkeeper and dairyman not to do this or that would be in many cases better spent by showing him how to do things. “Most dairymen would be willing to make improvements if they knew exactly how to go about it.” It appears that three‐fourths of the dairymen who supply Louisville with milk are co‐operating with the health authorities in the task of “cleaning up.” We must not assume that the British cowkeeper or dairyman is less willing to do the right thing than is his American confrére. The position of such an institution as a State Experiment Station is probably peculiar to the United States. It is in intimate touch with the requirements of every farmer in the State. It deals with all problems relating to the rearing and diseases of cattle, their housing, food and treatment; with the products of the dairy, farm, and stockyard. It is consulted by farmers on all conceivable subjects affecting their business at all times. The interests of the station do not end here. Not only is it concerned with the cattle and their products as such, but the Experiment Station is authorised by the legislature to concern itself with the distribution and sale of all dairy produce including, of course, milk and allied substances, with the hygienic and veterinary inspection of buildings and cattle, as well as with the conditions prevailing in dairies and milkshops. Moreover, the inspection of food products of all kinds and their analysis under the Pure Food Law of the State is frequently placed by the State in the hands of the experts attached to the Experiment Station. Under these circumstances such an institution is exceptionally well qualified to judge the requirements or faults of any process or institution affecting the food supply. In the case under review the Experiment Station sent round a circular letter to all cowkeepers and dairymen concerned, pointing out what it proposed to do, and asking for comments and suggestions. The object, in fact, was to make all farmers and dairymen feel that in the authorities of the Experiment Station they had to deal with a friendly body and not one whose desire was merely to catch them tripping. This they have apparently succeeded in doing, and with good results. The position of affairs in this country seems rather to suggest that public authorities and the milk trade occupy two hostile camps, and if this be so the fact is regrettable.

The management of large‐scale facilities such as airports requires a wide knowledge of potential problems that can arise as a result of strategic decisions. These decisions are often made many years before they come to fruition. The paper focuses on the potential compensation problems surrounding the construction of a new runway with particular reference to Manchester Airport; and examines the methods of practice and theory which may be adopted in the valuation of residential property affected by physical factors arising from the construction of a new installation.

Compares the predictive performance of artificial neural networks to hedonic pricing models, a more traditional valuation tool. The results document similar predictive performance evidenced from both techniques, which contradicts some of the earlier studies which support a position of artificial neural network superiority. Demonstrates that at least 18 per cent of the “normal” property predictions and over 70 per cent of the “outlier” property predictions contained valuation errors greater than 15 per cent of the actual sales price. The combination of these substantial errors and the model‐optimization costs incurred motivate a message of caution before artificial neural networks are adopted by the real estate valuation and/or lending industries.