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Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya

The nexus of commodity prices with inflation is one of the main concerns for a nation's economy like India. The literature does not have enough volatility-based study, especially…

Abstract

Purpose

The nexus of commodity prices with inflation is one of the main concerns for a nation's economy like India. The literature does not have enough volatility-based study, especially using the multivariate GRACH family of models to find a link between these two. It is the main reason for the conduct of this study. This paper aims to estimate the volatility effects of commodity prices on inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

For ten years (2011–2022), future prices of selected seven agriculture commodities and inflation indices (wholesale price index [WPI] and consumer price index [CPI]) are gathered every month. BEKK GARCH model (BGM) and DCC GARCH model (DGM) are employed to determine the volatility effect of commodity prices (CPs) on inflation.

Findings

The authors find that volatility's short-term (shock) impact on agricultural CPs to inflation does not exist. However, the long-term volatility spillover effect (VSE) is significant from commodities to inflation.

Practical implications

The study's findings have a significant implication for the policymakers to take a long-term view on inflation management regarding commodity prices. The findings can facilitate policy on the choice of commodities and the flexibility of their trading on the commodities derivatives market.

Originality/value

The findings of the study are unique. The authors do not observe any study on the volatility effect of agri-commodities (agricultural commodities) prices on inflation in India. This paper applies advanced techniques to provide novel and reliable evidence. Hence, this research is believed to contribute significantly to the knowledge body through its novel evidence and advanced approach.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 September 2022

Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya

This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National Rupee)) on inflation volatility in India.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models (Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner [BEKK]-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation [DCC]-GARCH) to examine the volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators and strategic commodities on inflation in India. The monthly data are collected from January 2000 till December 2020 for the crude oil price, gold price, interest rate (5-year Indian bond yield), exchange rate (USD/INR) and inflation (wholesale price index [WPI] and consumer price index [CPI]).

Findings

In BEKK-GARCH, the results reveal that crude oil price volatility has a long time spillover effect on inflation (WPI). Furthermore, no significant short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil market to inflation (WPI). However, the short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil to inflation while considering CPI as inflation. Gold price volatility has a bidirectional and negative spillover effect on inflation in the case of WPI. However, there is no price volatility spillover effect from gold to inflation in the case of CPI. The price volatility in the exchange rate also has a negative spillover effect on inflation (but only on CPI). Furthermore, volatility of interest rates has no spillover effect on inflation in WPI or CPI. In DCC-GARCH, a short-term volatility impact from all four macroeconomic indicators to inflation is found. Only crude oil and exchange rate have long-term volatility effect on inflation (CPI).

Practical implications

In an economy, inflation management is an essential task. The findings of the current study can be beneficial in this endeavor. The knowledge of the volatility spillover effect of all the four markets undertaken in the study can be significantly helpful in inflation management, especially for inflation-targeting policy.

Originality/value

It is observed that no other study has addressed this issue. We do not find any other research which studies the volatility spillover effect of gold, crude oil, interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation volatility. The current study is novel with a significant contribution to the vast knowledge in this context.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2022

Aashi Rawal, Shailesh Rastogi, Jagjeevan Kanoujiya and Venkata Mrudula Bhimavarapu

The authors have attempted to reveal the impact that transparency and disclosure (T&D) and financial distress (FD) have on the valuation of banks working in India. T&D involves…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors have attempted to reveal the impact that transparency and disclosure (T&D) and financial distress (FD) have on the valuation of banks working in India. T&D involves disclosing the firm's operational and financial performance and corporate governance practices. FD is a position in which a company or individual is not in a condition to fulfill their promise of paying their obligations on time.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the authors have used panel data analysis (PDA) and secondary data of 34 banks working in the Indian banking sector for four financial years, i.e. 2016 to 2019.

Findings

This study has established that FD and T&D have a positive and significant impact on the valuation of firms. The authors also find evidence that T&D significantly impacts the value of firms under the influence of FD.

Practical implications

The present study implies that it will help firms realize how significantly the transparency level and disclosure policies impact their value in the market. Firms can understand how badly distressing situations can impact the company's whole image. This learning will encourage them to start managing their money and debts efficiently.

Originality/value

The authors study has considered T&D as an independent variable and FD as a moderating variable to find the interacting impact of T&D and FD on the valuation of banks working in India. No such study has come to the authors' knowledge that has established such a relationship of variables in the study.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 January 2022

Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya

The main aim of the study is to explore the volatility spillover effect of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) on inflation volatility in India.

Abstract

Purpose

The main aim of the study is to explore the volatility spillover effect of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) on inflation volatility in India.

Design/methodology/approach

A popular tool, the Bivariate GARCH model (BEKK-GARCH), to study the volatility spillover effect, is applied in the study. Monthly data of cryptocurrencies and inflation (WPI and CPI indices) are gathered from 2015 to 2021.

Findings

Significant short-term responsiveness of volatility of cryptocurrencies on the inflation volatility is found. In addition to this, the significant volatility spillover effect from the cryptocurrencies to the inflation volatility is found.

Practical implications

The findings of the current paper can be of use for inflation management, target inflation policies and policies to contain the volatility of cryptocurrencies. The significance of the current paper is relevant as governments worldwide are officially recognizing cryptocurrencies and starting the process of launching their official virtual currency.

Originality/value

No other study is observed on the topic. Hence, the contribution and novelty of the findings of the current paper are very high and add value to the nonexistent literature on the topic. Lack of the number of inflation observations (data of CPI and WPI are available only in monthly frequency) crimps the model estimation. As the cryptocurrencies become old, more data points will be available by design, and such problems can be resolved, and better model estimation may be possible.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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