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This study aims to analyze information on vessel traffic between the two Koreas with a probability distribution for each route/vessel type. The study will then conduct an estimate for maritime transport patterns of inter-Korean trade in the future. To analyze the flow of inter-Korean coastal shipping, this study conducted visualization analysis of shipping status between North and South Korea by year, ship type, and port using navigation data of three years from Port Logistics Information System (Port-MIS) sources during 2006 to 2008, which saw the most active exchanges between the two governments. Also, this study analyzes shipping status between the two governments as a probability distribution for each port and provides the prospects for future maritime transport for inter-Korean trade by means of Bayesian Networks and simulation. The results of the analysis are as follows: i) when North-South routes are reopened, the import volume for sand from North Korea will be increased; ii) investment in the modernization of ports in North Korea is required so that shipping companies can generate profit through economies of scale; iii) the number of the operating vessels including container ships between the two governments is expected to increase like when the tensions and conflict on the Korean Peninsula was release, especially between Busan port in South Korea and Nampo port in North Korea; and iv) among container ships, transshipment containers imported and exported through Busan Port will be shipped to North Korea by feeder transportation.

Recently, decoupling between the US and China has emerged as an important issue in global economics. We propose an analytical framework for trade decoupling analysis, borrowing the idea from the production function in non-competitive input-output tables. Using that methodology, we analyze the mobile phone trade network subject to various measures imposed by the US. A scenario analysis is performed to compare the extent of decoupling after a trade war with worst-cases. In bilateral trade, China’s share of total US imports fell significantly in 2019 compared to 2017. However, China’s indirect exports to the US increased during the same period. A similar pattern is observed in the global trade network visualized via multidimensional scaling (MDS). China’s out-degree centrality decreased slightly, while Vietnam’s role expanded. Actual figures for 2019 show a decreased out-degree centrality for Chinese final good exports, but a much higher one in the scenarios. Also, China’s indirect exports to the US have increased. But China does not appear to play a key role in the network as assumed in the scenario. Throughout the study, intermediate goods were treated homogeneously, and further studies considering the heterogeneity of input-output linkages are needed.

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the impact of logistics efficiency on trade volume growth, and to examine the effects of lower tariffs resulting from free trade agreements. In order to measure the impact of logistics efficiency on trade volume growth, the export and import trade volume among 53 countries was introduced as the dependent variable. Macroeconomic indicators including annual average tariff rate, logistics efficiency indicators for port, air, railroad, road and container vessel connectivity, as well as dummy variables such as whether a free trade agreement was signed, were introduced as the explanatory variables. Bilateral panel data between trading nations was used to estimate the gravity panel model, and analysis followed the categorization: 1) separate inputs of the five logistics efficiency variables and 2) one aggregated input of the five variables as a single indicator. The analysis found that logistics efficiency had a statistically significant impact on bilateral trade volume growth, while the impact of lowering tariff rates on increasing trade was insignificant. In addition, logistics efficiency was found to have a greater impact on increasing trade volume than free trade agreements. These results imply that trade can be promoted more effectively by establishing and efficiently operating logistics-related infrastructure rather than traditional methods of reducing trade barriers such as lowering tariffs and signing free trade agreements.

The authors provide a comprehensive empirical examination on the impact of earnings quality on stock price crash risk in China.

The authors acknowledge and distinguish two-dimensional proxies for earnings quality – accounting-based (earnings management degree) and market-based (earnings transparency) known in accounting and finance literature.

The authors find that both generally indicate that better earnings quality is associated with less crashes. However, extremely high earnings transparency interacted with insider trading profit can also actually exacerbate stock price crashes.

This study is the first to highlight the pertinence of accounting-based measures to proxy for earnings quality in a fast-growing emerging market environment such as China.