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This study examines the use of forecast combination to improve the accuracy of forecasts of cumulative demand. A forecast combination methodology based on least absolute value (LAV) regression analysis is developed and is applied to partially accumulated demand data from an actual manufacturing operation. The accuracy of the proposed model is compared with the accuracy of common alternative approaches that use partial demand data. Results indicate that the proposed methodology outperforms the alternative approaches.

This chapter will present a goal programming model which simultaneously generates forecasts for the aggregate level and for lower echelons in a multilevel forecasting context. Data from an actual service firm will be used to illustrate and test the proposed model against a standard forecast technique based on the bottom-up/top-down approach.

This chapter uses advance order data from an actual manufacturing shop to develop and test a forecast model for total demand. The proposed model made direct use of historical time series data for total demand and time series data for advance orders. Comparison of the proposed model to commonly used approaches showed that the proposed model exhibited greater forecast accuracy.

Purpose – To synthesize the literature on coping among adolescents of color in the U.S., we examine normative and circumstantial stressors, describe coping strategies, and summarize the literature on coping for the promotion of well-being among adolescents of color, including descriptive and intervention studies.

Methods/approach – We conducted an extensive review of the literature in four scientific databases (medline, CINAHL, ERIC, and PyschInfo) between July 2010 and June 2011 (key words: (minority) adolescent(s) (of color), cope/coping, stress (ors), and adaptation/psychological). Studies included in our review were peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and June 2011 that presented original data on the coping strategies and outcomes of adolescents of color (e.g., studies including a majority from underrepresented racial/ethnic communities) between the ages of 12 and 18.

Findings – We identified a total of 91 articles for inclusion, including 83 descriptive and 8 intervention studies. We use a matrix approach to compare descriptive studies by their purpose, study design, sample, targeted stressors, and outcomes. We then discuss the eight interventions we identified, highlighting the targeted population, intervention protocol/adaptation, feasibility/acceptability, and study outcomes.

Implications – The breadth and depth of research on coping among adolescents of color has improved significantly over the past decade, yet our review reveals several areas where further exploration is needed, including research on intra-group differences, validation of coping measures in diverse groups, measurement of the effectiveness of coping strategies over time, and most importantly, the translation of available knowledge on effective coping into culturally relevant, multifaceted interventions for adolescents and their families.

Certain elements of Hayek’s work are prominent precursors to the modern field of complex adaptive systems, including his ideas on spontaneous order, his focus on market processes, his contrast between designing and gardening, and his own framing of complex systems. Conceptually, he was well ahead of his time, prescient in his formulation of novel ways to think about economies and societies. Technically, the fact that he did not mathematically formalize most of the notions he developed makes his insights hard to incorporate unambiguously into models. However, because so much of his work is divorced from the simplistic models proffered by early mathematical economics, it stands as fertile ground for complex systems researchers today. I suggest that Austrian economists can create a progressive research program by building models of these Hayekian ideas, and thereby gain traction within the economics profession. Instead of mathematical models the suite of techniques and tools known as agent-based computing seems particularly well-suited to addressing traditional Austrian topics like money, business cycles, coordination, market processes, and so on, while staying faithful to the methodological individualism and bottom-up perspective that underpin the entire school of thought.

As they say, “Change is the only constant.” Thriving and surviving during a period of extraordinary collision of technological advances, globalization, and climate change can be daunting. At any given point in one’s life, a transition can be interpreted in terms of the magnitude of change (how big or small) and the individual’s ontological experience of change (whether it disrupts an equilibrium or adapts an emergent way of life). These four quadrants represent different ways to live in a highly dynamic and complex world. We share the resulting four-quadrant framework from a quantitative and a mixed methods study to examine responses to various ways we respond to transitions. Contingent upon these two dimensions, one can use a four-quadrant framework to mobilize resources to design a response and hypothesize a desired outcome. Individuals may find themselves at various junctions of these quadrants over a lifespan. These four quadrants provide “requisite variety” to navigate individual ontology as they move into and out of fluid spaces we often call instability during a time of transition. In this chapter, we identified social, cognitive, psychological, and behavioral factors that contribute to thriving transition experiences, embracing dynamic stability. Two new constructs were developed, the first measures the receptivity to change, Transformation Quotient (TQ) and second measures the range of responses to transitions from surviving to thriving, Thriving Transitional Experiences (TTE). We hope our work will pave the way for Thriving to become a “normal” outcome of experiencing change by transforming the lexicon and expectation of engaging with transitions.