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This paper aims to respond to issues posed in the four commentaries on Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe (2016, this issue) regarding the immediate usefulness of that paper’s test of advertisements’ compliance with persuasion principles, and regarding the need for further research.

This paper addresses commentators’ concerns using logic, prior research findings and further analyses of the data.

The superiority of the index method remains when a simple, theory-based, alternative weighting-scheme is used in the index model. Combinations of three unaided experts’ forecasts were more accurate than the individual forecasts, but the gain was only one-third of the gain achieved by using the Persuasion Principles Index (PPI).

Replications and extensions using behavioral data and alternative implementations of the index method would help to better assess the effects of judging conformity with principles as a means of predicting relative advertising effectiveness. Advertisers can expect more accurate pretest results if they combine the predictions of three experts or, even better, if they use tests of compliance with persuasion principles, such as the PPI. The PPI software is copyrighted, but is available now and is free to use.

New analysis and findings provide further support for the claim that advertisers who use the PPI approach proposed by Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe (2016, this issue) to choose among alternative advertisements will be more profitable than those who do not.

This paper aims to test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine.

Scores were calculated from the ratings of 17 self-trained novices who rated 96 matched pairs of print advertisements for adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles. Predictions from traditional methods – 10,809 unaided judgments from novices and 2,764 judgments from people with some expertise in advertising and 288 copy-testing predictions – provided benchmarks.

A higher adherence-to-principles-score correctly predicted the more effective advertisement for 75 per cent of the pairs. Copy testing was correct for 59 per cent, and expert judgment was correct for 55 per cent. Guessing would provide 50 per cent accurate predictions. Combining judgmental predictions led to substantial improvements in accuracy.

Advertisements for high-involvement utilitarian products were tested on the assumption that persuasion principles would be more effective for such products. The measure of effectiveness that was available –day-after-recall – is a proxy for persuasion or behavioral measures.

Pretesting advertisements by assessing adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles in a structured way helps in deciding which advertisements would be best to run. That procedure also identifies how to make an advertisement more effective.

This is the first study in marketing, and in advertising specifically, to test the predictive validity of evidence-based principles. In addition, the study provides the first test of the predictive validity of the index method for a marketing problem.

This chapter elaborates on the usefulness of embracing complexity theory, modeling outcomes rather than directionality, and modeling complex rather than simple outcomes in strategic management. Complexity theory includes the tenet that most antecedent conditions are neither sufficient nor necessary for the occurrence of a specific outcome. Identifying a firm by individual antecedents (i.e., noninnovative vs. highly innovative, small vs. large size in sales or number of employees, or serving local vs. international markets) provides shallow information in modeling specific outcomes (e.g., high sales growth or high profitability) – even if directional analyses (e.g., regression analysis, including structural equation modeling) indicate that the independent (main) effects of the individual antecedents relate to outcomes directionally – because firm (case) anomalies almost always occur to main effects. Examples: a number of highly innovative firms have low sales while others have high sales and a number of noninnovative firms have low sales while others have high sales. Breaking-away from the current dominant logic of directionality testing – null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) – to embrace somewhat precise outcome testing (SPOT) is necessary for extracting highly useful information about the causes of anomalies – associations opposite to expected and “statistically significant” main effects. The study of anomalies extends to identifying the occurrences of four-corner strategy outcomes: firms doing well in favorable circumstances, firms doing badly in favorable circumstances, firms doing well in unfavorable circumstances, and firms doing badly in unfavorable circumstances. Models of four-corner strategy outcomes advance strategic management beyond the current dominant logic of directional modeling of single outcomes.

The purpose of this paper is to provide commentary on Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe’s (this issue) article.

The paper is based on reading and thinking about Armstrong et al.’s article.

One appealing way that advertising practice can be evidence-based is by applying dependable generalizations about what makes for effective ads. Armstrong et al.’s article offers data concerning the application of Armstrong’s persuasive advertising: Evidence-Based Principles (2010) persuasion principles. The article does not provide convincing evidence for the predictive validity of the principles, but it does offer a clear proof-of-concept demonstration of the feasibility of principles-based advertising assessment.

The paper’s value lies in its clarification of what claims Armstrong et al.’s data do and do not underwrite.

Recently there has been debate about whether or not academic research and theories in management are ‘relevant’. The discussion has been extended to marketing and we explore whether or not there is a disconnection between marketing practice and the methodologies, theories and concepts put forward by marketing academics. The possible explanations for the divide between ‘theory’ and ‘practice’ in marketing are assessed. We then focus on new product development and consider the practical implications of the considerable corps of research aimed at identifying the influences affecting new product success. We continue by discussing the traditional representation of new product development. This assumes a staged process that can be managed, but which ignores in particular the impact of uncertainty. We conclude by suggesting that marketing needs to reappraise its model of the new product development process.

The promise of a charitable contribution on behalf of respondents to mail surveys may prove effective in increasing response rates as well as offering cost and administration advantages. This study refines this type of incentive by investigating the effect of the amount of the charitable contribution and the placement of the incentive offer in the cover letter. The research population is drawn from the industrial sector, an important sector which has been studied far less than consumers.

This article presents a study of revenue forecasting in a Florida municipal government. Seven techniques, including the budget officers' judgmental approach, time series models, a deterministic model, and an optimized model, are employed with franchise and utility receipts in the Town of Davie. The authors found that simple time series models outperformed deterministic models and the judgmentally derived forecasts of local officials. Consistent with prior research, findings here suggest that the time series models are not only accurate, but also easy to implement and readily comprehensible by local officials.

This article reports three years' research into the pilot phase of the Social Science Research Council's Open Door Scheme, a scheme designed to facilitate social science research utilisation. Firstly, some general issues of social science utilisation are examined, followed by the background to the creation of the Council's Open Door Scheme to help meet these difficulties. Then, findings from research into the pilot phase of the scheme from 1977 to 1980 are discussed, including its future operation and potential for influencing managerial activity in its widest sense.