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Venezuelan isolation raises a range of grave risks

Location:

VENEZUELA

The country has rowed back from a more activist global role since the death of President Hugo Chavez

Deaths of despair could hinder the economic recovery

Location:

INT

Social isolation and economic uncertainties arising from COVID-19 lockdowns could prompt many more deaths of despair

Powers will fight proxy wars in impoverished Syria

Location:

SYRIA

With the Gaza conflict raging, Syrians face military pressure from all sides, as economic constraints also tighten

Ukraine analogy has limited relevance for Taiwan

Location:

TAIWAN

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has drawn comparisons with a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan

An Iran-US JCPOA return requires complex choreography

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IRAN/UNITED STATES

To return to nuclear-deal compliance, Washington has to lift sanctions and Tehran has to roll back nuclear development

Wider shift in Arab stances on Israel appears distant

Location:

ISRAEL

The United States has been encouraging other Arab countries to follow the UAE’s example in normalising ties with Israel

Risks and opportunities 2021: CEE/Turkey

Location:

CEE/TURKEY

Turkey will be unpredictable abroad and unstable at home; democratic deficiencies will persist in Poland and Hungary

Congo’s new president enters office under a cloud

Location:

CONGO-KINSHASA

Serious doubts have been raised over the election’s credibility and the continued influence of the current ruling elite

States of the wider Gulf vary over energy transition

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MIDDLE EAST

Despite strong climate rhetoric by some, the pragmatic focus is on maximising medium-term oil and gas output

Nuclear deal alters balance in Iran-Gulf 'Cold War'

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

By removing the threat of US military action, the nuclear deal will empower Iran and spur Gulf Arab activism