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1 – 10 of 443
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 July 2020

Ranjan Dasgupta and Sandip Chattopadhyay

The determinants of investorssentiment based on secondary stock market proxies in many empirical studies are reported. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study undertakes…

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Abstract

Purpose

The determinants of investorssentiment based on secondary stock market proxies in many empirical studies are reported. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study undertakes investor sentiment drivers developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) in relation to market drivers to date. This study aims to fill this research gap by first developing the ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining which of the stock market drivers impacts such sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

The ISI is constructed using the mean scores of eight statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken across the world. Then, we use the multiple regression approach overall and for top 33.33% (high-sentiment) and bottom 33.33% (low-sentiment) investors based on the responses of 576 respondents on 18 statements (proxying eight study hypotheses) collected in 2016. Moreover, the demography-based classification based investorssentiment is examined to make our results more robust and in-depth.

Findings

On an overall basis, the IPO activities/issues and information certainty, trading volume and momentum and institutional investors’ investment activities market drivers significantly and positively impact retail investors is examined. However, only IPO activities/issues and information certainty influences both high- and low-sentiment investors. It is intriguing to report that nature of the stock markets show conflicting results for high- (negative significant) and low- (positive significant) sentiment investors.

Originality/value

The construction of the ISI from primary survey measure is for the first time in Indian context in relation to investigating the stock market drivers influential to retail investorssentiment. In addition, hypothesized market drivers are also unique, each representing different fundamental and technical characteristics associated with the Indian market.

Details

Rajagiri Management Journal, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-9968

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 June 2022

Kingstone Nyakurukwa and Yudhvir Seetharam

The authors examine how financial analysts respond to online investor sentiment when updating recommendations for specific stocks in South Africa. The aim is to establish whether…

1503

Abstract

Purpose

The authors examine how financial analysts respond to online investor sentiment when updating recommendations for specific stocks in South Africa. The aim is to establish whether online sentiment contains significant information that can influence analyst recommendations. The authors follow up the above by examining when online investor sentiment is most associated with analyst recommendation changes.

Design/methodology/approach

For online investor sentiment proxies, the authors make use of the social media sentiment and news media sentiment scores provided by Bloomberg Inc. The sample size includes all companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index. The study uses traditional ordinary least squares to examine the relation at the mean and quantile regression to identify the scope of the relationship across the distribution of the dependent variable.

Findings

The authors find evidence that pre-event news sentiment significantly influences analyst recommendation changes while no significant relationship is found with the Twitter sentiment. Further analysis shows that news sentiment is more influential when the recommendation changes are moderate (in the middle of the conditional distribution of the recommendation changes).

Originality/value

The study is the one of the first to examine the association between online sentiment and analyst recommendation changes in an emerging market using high frequency data. The authors also make a direct comparison between social media sentiment and news media sentiment, some of the most used contemporary investor sentiment proxies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 September 2022

Dyliane Mouri Silva de Souza and Orleans Silva Martins

This study identified how investor sentiment on Twitter is associated with Brazilian stock market return and trading volume.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study identified how investor sentiment on Twitter is associated with Brazilian stock market return and trading volume.

Design/methodology/approach

The study analyzes 314,864 tweets between January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2018, collected with the Tweepy library. The companies’ financial data were obtained from Refinitiv Eikon. Using the netnographic method, a Twitter Investor Sentiment Index (ISI) was constructed based on terms associated with the stocks. This Twitter sentiment was attributed through machine learning using the Google Cloud Natural Language API. The associations between Twitter sentiment and market performance were performed using quantile regressions and vector auto-regression (VAR) models, because the variables of interest are heterogeneous and non-normal, even as relationships can be dynamic.

Findings

In the contemporary period, the ISI is positively correlated with stock market returns, but negatively correlated with trading volume. The autoregressive analysis did not confirm the expectation of a dynamic relationship between sentiment and market variables. The quantile analysis showed that the ISI explains the stock market return, however, only at times of lower returns. It is possible to state that this effect is due to the informational content of the tweets (sentiment), and not to the volume of tweets.

Originality/value

The study presents unprecedented evidence for the Brazilian market that investor sentiment can be identified on Twitter, and that this sentiment can be useful for the formation of an investment strategy, especially in times of lower returns. These findings are original and relevant to market agents, such as investors, managers and regulators, as they can be used to obtain abnormal returns.

Details

Revista de Gestão, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1809-2276

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 September 2023

Amit Rohilla, Neeta Tripathi and Varun Bhandari

In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to…

Abstract

Purpose

In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to December 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses 23 market and macroeconomic proxies to measure investor sentiment. Principal component analysis has been used to create sentiment sub-indices that represent investor sentiment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and other sophisticated econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) stability test, regression, etc. have been used to achieve the objectives of the study.

Findings

The authors find that there is a significant relationship between sentiment sub-indices and industries' returns over the period of study. Market and economic variables, market ratios, advance-decline ratio, high-low index, price-to-book value ratio and liquidity in the economy are some of the significant sub-indices explaining industries' returns.

Research limitations/implications

The study has relevant implications for retail investors, policy-makers and other decision-makers in the Indian stock market. Results are helpful for the investor in improving their decision-making and identifying those sentiment sub-indices and the variables therein that are relevant in explaining the return of a particular industry.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the existing literature by exploring the relationship between sentiment and industries' returns in the Indian stock market and by identifying relevant sentiment sub-indices. Also, the study supports the investors' irrationality, which arises due to a plethora of behavioral biases as enshrined in classical finance.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 June 2019

Albert Rapp

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether sentiment and mood, which are distinct theoretical concepts, can also be distinguished empirically.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether sentiment and mood, which are distinct theoretical concepts, can also be distinguished empirically.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample of German small-cap stocks and linear techniques, the effect of sentiment and mood on short-term abnormal stock return following earnings announcements is tested separately.

Findings

Mood tends to be a positive factor in predicting short-term abnormal stock return, as its biologically based impact uniformly affects the risk aversion of all market participants. Notably, negative mood influences stock return significantly negatively. Sentiment is no factor, however, as its cognitively based impact affects only unsophisticated investors, namely, their cash-flow expectations.

Research limitations/implications

As the sample is restricted to small-cap stocks from a single stock market and only two proxies of sentiment and mood, respectively, are used, the findings should be generalized with caution. Future research might investigate other markets and employ different proxies of sentiment and mood.

Practical implications

Market participants should be aware of the different effect of sentiment and mood on stock return and adjust investment strategies accordingly.

Social implications

As sophisticated investors are likely to profit from the irrational behavior of unsophisticated investors, who are prone to sentiment, the financial literacy of retail investors should be enhanced.

Originality/value

This paper is unique in distinguishing between sentiment and mood, both theoretically and empirically. Such distinction was largely ignored by related past research.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2019

Doojin Ryu, Karam Kim and Heejin Yang

The behavioral finance literature focuses on the effect of investor sentiment on the fundamental values of individual stocks. This study constructs a firm-level investor sentiment

122

Abstract

The behavioral finance literature focuses on the effect of investor sentiment on the fundamental values of individual stocks. This study constructs a firm-level investor sentiment indicator based on transaction and price data for individual firms and shows that credit rating changes affect investor sentiment. We find the following empirical results. First, the response of investor sentiment to upgrades (downgrades) is significantly positive (negative). Second, the greater the magnitude of the downgrade is, the more negative the investor sentiment reaction is, although we do not find a similar result for upgrades. Third, cumulative abnormal returns around the event day are affected by cumulative abnormal sentiment before that day. This result suggests that the market reaction is affected by a combination of credit rating downgrades and investor sentiment.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 27 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed and Muhammad Shahid Rasheed

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.

Findings

The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.

Originality/value

This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 November 2023

Thu Le Can, Minh Duy Le and Ko-Chia Yu

By extending Edmans et al.’s (2021) music sentiment measures to the Vietnam market, the authors aim to investigate the impacts of music sentiment on stock market returns and…

Abstract

Purpose

By extending Edmans et al.’s (2021) music sentiment measures to the Vietnam market, the authors aim to investigate the impacts of music sentiment on stock market returns and volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopted Edmans et al.’s (2021) music-based sentiment to proxy for investor mood. The current study uses linear regression analysis.

Findings

The authors find that music sentiment is significantly and positively related to both stock returns and stock market volatility. The authors also show that music sentiment has a contagious effect: Global music sentiment and those in the United States, France and Hong Kong are significant drivers of the Vietnamese stock market. The authors also examine the effect on different industry returns and find that returns on stocks of firms in the communication services, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, real-estate, information technology and utility sectors are significantly related to music sentiment. In addition to valence, the authors find that other Spotify audio features can be used to quantify music sentiment.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the behavioral finance literature that focuses on investor sentiment. The authors address this topic in Vietnam using high-frequency data.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 February 2022

Kingstone Nyakurukwa and Yudhvir Seetharam

The authors examine the contemporaneous and causal association between tweet features (bullishness, message volume and investor agreement) and market features (stock returns…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors examine the contemporaneous and causal association between tweet features (bullishness, message volume and investor agreement) and market features (stock returns, trading volume and volatility) using 140 South African companies and a dataset of firm-level Twitter messages extracted from Bloomberg for the period 1 January 2015 to 31 March 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

Panel regressions with ticker fixed-effects are used to examine the contemporaneous link between tweet features and market features. To examine the link between the magnitude of tweet features and stock market features, the study uses quantile regression.

Findings

No monotonic relationship is found between the magnitude of tweet features and the magnitude of market features. The authors find no evidence that past values of tweet features can predict forthcoming stock returns using daily data while weekly and monthly data shows that past values of tweet features contain useful information that can predict the future values of stock returns.

Originality/value

The study is among the earlier to examine the association between textual sentiment from social media and market features in a South African context. The exploration of the relationship across the distribution of the stock market features gives new insights away from the traditional approaches which investigate the relationship at the mean.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 48 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 October 2018

Ahmed Bouteska and Boutheina Regaieg

The current study aims to investigate the impacts of two behavioral biases, namely, loss aversion and overconfidence on the performance of US companies. First, the impact of loss…

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Abstract

Purpose

The current study aims to investigate the impacts of two behavioral biases, namely, loss aversion and overconfidence on the performance of US companies. First, the impact of loss aversion on the economic performance of companies was assessed. Second, the impact of overconfidence on market performance was discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used around 6,777 quarterly observations on the population of US-insured industrial and services companies over the 2006-2016 period. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression in two panel data models were used to test the hypotheses formulated for the study.

Findings

It was documented that the loss-aversion bias negatively affects the economic performance of companies and this is achieved for both sectors. In contrast, the findings suggest that overconfidence positively affects market performance of industrial firms but negatively affects market performance in service firms. Further robust evidence was found that overconfidence bias seems to be dominant, and hence, investors may tend to be more overconfident rather than more loss-averse.

Originality/value

This research can be extended by focusing on the following question: What is the impact of the contradictory (positive and negative) effects of an investor's loss aversion and overconfidence on the US company performance in case of realization of a stock market crisis or stock market crash?

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 50
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

1 – 10 of 443