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Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Syed Faisal Shah

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction between cultural dimensions and individual (private) sentiment (investor sentiment).

Design/methodology/approach

To meet the study's objectives, a two-step generalised method of moments estimator was applied to the study sample, which included 105 banks in the nine Middle East and North African region countries between 2010 and 2020.

Findings

The cultural dimensions of individualism and masculinity were found to have a positive and significant effect on banks' buy and hold stock return (BUH). At the same time, power distance and uncertainty avoidance were discovered to have negative effects. Besides, the findings revealed that the interactions of power distance, individual sentiment and uncertainty avoidance had positive and significant relationships with banks' BUH. However, individualism, individual sentiment and masculinity had inverse relationships with banks' BUH. Furthermore, the findings revealed that investor sentiment positively influenced banks' BUH. Finally, uncertainty influenced banks' BUH stock returns positively.

Research limitations/implications

Important implications for participants in the financial sector and governments may be learnt from this study's conclusions. Due to cultural biases, this study's findings suggested that investors overreact in the stock market.

Originality/value

Additionally, this research comprises one of the few studies that have overviewed the link between classical and behavioural finance in MENA countries with distinctive cultural characteristics.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2023

Mehdi Mili, Asma Yahiya Al Amoodi and Hana Bawazir

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model that relies on positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the Coronavirus indicators. Five investor sentiments had been used and the analysis is conducted on the full sample period from 24th February 2020 to 25th March 2021.

Findings

The results show that new cases have a greater impact on investor sentiment compared to daily announcements of new deaths related to COVID-19. In addition to revealing a significant impact of new COVID-19 new cases and new death announcements on a daily basis on investor sentiment over the short- and long-term, this paper also highlights the nonlinearity and asymmetry of this relationship in the short and long run. Investors' sentiments are more affected by negative news regarding Covid 19 than positive news.

Originality/value

Financial markets have been severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to measure the extent of reaction of investors to positive and negative announcements of COVID-19. Interestingly, this study examines the asymmetric effect of daily announcements on new cases and new deaths by COVID-19 on investor sentiments and derive many implications for portfolio managers.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2021

Ka Shing Cheung and Joshua Lee

Real estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore…

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore impedes informed rational arbitrageurs to trade against mispricing. Thus, real estate returns are prone to sentiment-driven behaviours. Will the impacts on asset returns be identical for different types of sentiment?

Design/methodology/approach

This study argues that not all sentiment effects are created equal. Using the bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this paper examines how occupier sentiment versus investor sentiment contributes to the short-run and long-run dynamics of commercial real estate returns in Australia.

Findings

The empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment and occupier sentiment influence return asymmetrically after macroeconomic conditions are controlled for.

Practical implications

The sectoral analysis further reveals that sector-specific sentiment plays a significant role in explaining commercial real estate returns. Furthermore, notable improvement is found in producing more accurate prediction in returns, given that measures of occupier and investor sentiment are appropriately specified in the forecast.

Originality/value

This study is novel in the sense that it acknowledges the impacts of occupiers' and investors' sentiment may be fundamentally different. The unique innovation and contribution of this study to behavioural finance literature are based on a new dataset from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors which includes a survey-based measure of investor sentiment and occupier sentiment.

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2020

Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi

Considering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold…

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market return, as well as that between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market volatility, using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The author presents and discusses the findings both for the full sample and at the industry level. The results support prior literature that stocks in different industries do not react similarly to investor sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

The PVAR methodology with the GMM estimation is found to be superior to other static panel methodologies due to considering both unobservable time-invariant and time-variant factors, as well as being suitable for relatively short time periods. The panel data approach improves the statistical power of the tests and ensures more reliable results.

Findings

In general, a negative and unidirectional association from gold investor sentiment to stock returns is observed. However, the gold sentiment-stock realized volatility relationship is negative and bidirectional, and there exists a greater impact of a stock’s realized volatility on gold investor sentiment. Importantly, evidence at the industry level is stronger than that at the aggregate level in both return and volatility cases, confirming the role of gold investor sentiment in the Thai stock market. The capital flow effect and the contagion effect explain the gold sentiment-stock return relationship and the gold sentiment-stock volatility relationship, respectively.

Research limitations/implications

The gold price sentiment index can be used as a factor for stock return predictability and stock realized volatility predictability in the Thai equity market.

Practical implications

Practitioners and traders can employ the gold price sentiment index to make a profit in the stock market in Thailand.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to use panel data to investigate the relationships between the gold investor sentiment and stock returns and between the gold investor sentiment and stocks’ realized volatility, respectively.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2019

Mouna Abdelhedi and Mouna Boujelbène-Abbes

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during the 2014‒2016 turmoil period.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the daily and monthly China market price index, oil-price index and composite index of Chinese investor’s sentiment. The authors first use the DCC GARCH model in order to study the correlation between variables. Second, the authors use a continuous wavelet decomposition technique so as to capture both time- and frequency-varying features of co-movement variables. Finally, the authors examine the spillover effects by estimating the BEKK GARCH model.

Findings

The wavelet coherency results indicate a substantial co-movement between oil and Chinese stock markets in the periods of high volatility. BEKK GARCH model outcomes confirm this relation and report the noteworthy bidirectional transmission of volatility between oil market shocks and the Chinese investor’s sentiment, chiefly in the crisis period. These results support the behavioral theory of contagion and highlight that the Chinese investor’s sentiment is a channel through which shocks are transmitted between the oil and Chinese equity markets. Thus, these results are important for Chinese authorities that should monitor the investor’s sentiment to better control the interaction between financial and real markets.

Originality/value

This study makes three major contributions to the existing literature. First, it pays attention to the recent 2015 Chinese stock market bumble. Second, it has gone some way toward enhancing our understanding of the volatility spillover between the investor’s sentiment, investor’s sentiment variation, oil prices and stock market returns (variables of interest) during oil and stock market crises. Third, it uses the continuous wavelet decomposition technique since it reveals the linkage between variables of interest at different time horizons.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 January 2022

Song Cao, Ziran Li, Kees G. Koedijk and Xiang Gao

While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors…

Abstract

Purpose

While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.

Findings

The authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 September 2021

Saeid Aliahmadi

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on accounting conservatism in listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on accounting conservatism in listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, two models of Ball and Shivakumar (2006) and Basu (1997) have been used for measuring conditional conservatism in accounting. To measure investor sentiment, the author uses the Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) index. The research sample consists of 1,820 observations and 182 firms listed on TSE over a ten-year period between 2011 and 2020. This study uses panel data and multivariate regression analysis to test it hypotheses.

Findings

Consistent with this hypothesis that accounting conservatism will increase with investor sentiment, the results showed that Iranian firms recognize economic losses and bad news in a more timely manner during high sentiment periods than during low sentiment periods. This implies that Iranian managers recognize economic losses and bad news in earnings in a more timely manner during periods of high investor sentiment.

Practical implications

This finding provides significant evidence for investors and financial reporting standard-setters in Iran because by removing accounting conservatism from the conceptual framework, managers are not able to present conservative financial reports, and this can intensify the negative impact of investors sentiment in the Iranian capital market. Managers of Iranian companies can reduce information asymmetry and increase capital market efficiency by accelerating the disclosure of bad news. Thus, managers can strategically recognize losses and prevent investors from making emotional decisions that reduce their wealth.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine the impact of investor sentiment on accounting conservatism in a developing market called Iran. This study contributes to the corporate disclosure literature. Also, the result of this study contributes to standard-setters of accounting standards to improve the mandatory disclosure literature on more conservative accounting earnings.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 July 2020

Ranjan Dasgupta and Sandip Chattopadhyay

The determinants of investors’ sentiment based on secondary stock market proxies in many empirical studies are reported. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study undertakes…

2589

Abstract

Purpose

The determinants of investors’ sentiment based on secondary stock market proxies in many empirical studies are reported. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study undertakes investor sentiment drivers developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) in relation to market drivers to date. This study aims to fill this research gap by first developing the ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining which of the stock market drivers impacts such sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

The ISI is constructed using the mean scores of eight statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken across the world. Then, we use the multiple regression approach overall and for top 33.33% (high-sentiment) and bottom 33.33% (low-sentiment) investors based on the responses of 576 respondents on 18 statements (proxying eight study hypotheses) collected in 2016. Moreover, the demography-based classification based investors’ sentiment is examined to make our results more robust and in-depth.

Findings

On an overall basis, the IPO activities/issues and information certainty, trading volume and momentum and institutional investors’ investment activities market drivers significantly and positively impact retail investors is examined. However, only IPO activities/issues and information certainty influences both high- and low-sentiment investors. It is intriguing to report that nature of the stock markets show conflicting results for high- (negative significant) and low- (positive significant) sentiment investors.

Originality/value

The construction of the ISI from primary survey measure is for the first time in Indian context in relation to investigating the stock market drivers influential to retail investors’ sentiment. In addition, hypothesized market drivers are also unique, each representing different fundamental and technical characteristics associated with the Indian market.

Details

Rajagiri Management Journal, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-9968

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2020

Tihana Škrinjarić, Zrinka Lovretin Golubić and Zrinka Orlović

This paper aims to analyze the effects of investors’ sentiment, return and risk series on one to another of selected exchange rates. The empirical analysis consists of a…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the effects of investors’ sentiment, return and risk series on one to another of selected exchange rates. The empirical analysis consists of a time-varying inter-dependence between the observed variables, with the focus on spillovers between the variables.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly data on the index Sentix, exchange rates EUR–USD, EUR–CHF and EUR–JPY are analyzed from February 2003 to December 2019. The applied methodology consists of vector autoregression models (VAR) with Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2011) spillover indices.

Findings

The results of the empirical research indicate that using static analysis could result in misleading conclusions, with dynamic analysis indicating that the financial of 2007-2008 and specific negative events increase the spillovers of shock between the observed variables for all three exchange rates. The sources of shocks in the model change over time because of variables changing their positions being net emitters and net receivers of shocks.

Research limitations/implications

The shortfalls of this study include using the monthly data frequency, as this was available for the authors, namely, investors are interested to obtain new information on a weekly and daily basis, not only monthly. However, at the time of writing this research, we could obtain only monthly data.

Practical implications

As the obtained results are in line with previous literature and were found to be robust, there exists the potential to use such analysis in the future when forecasting risk and return series for portfolio management purposes. Thus, a basic comparison was made regarding the investment strategies, which were based on the results from the estimation. It was shown that using information about shock spillovers could result in strategies that can obtain better portfolio value over time compared to basic benchmark strategies.

Originality/value

First, this paper allows for the spillovers of shocks in variables within the VAR models in all directions. Second, a dynamic analysis is included in the study. Third, the mentioned spillover indices are included in the study as well.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 38 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 June 2017

Boonlert Jitmaneeroj

A large number of empirical studies investigate the determinants of price-earnings (P/E) ratio by focusing on fundamental factors. However, there has been an increasing concern…

1950

Abstract

Purpose

A large number of empirical studies investigate the determinants of price-earnings (P/E) ratio by focusing on fundamental factors. However, there has been an increasing concern that stock valuation is also driven by investor sentiment. This paper aims to extend the existing literature by exploring whether investor sentiment impacts the P/E ratio.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines the determinants of P/E ratio by applying latent variable models with investor sentiment as a latent variable and several fundamental factors as control variables. Investor sentiment is proxied by trading volume, advance-decline ratio and price volatility.

Findings

Using annual data of the US industries over the period of 1998-2014, the current paper produces new empirical evidence that investor sentiment significantly affects the P/E ratio. This result is robust to the inclusion of several control variables that have been documented to explain the P/E ratio.

Practical implications

The findings have important implications for investors, as downplaying sentiment can lead to significant errors in making equity investment choices based on the P/E ratio.

Originality/value

The analytical framework of the current paper is differentiated from the conventional analysis in which the P/E ratio is regressed against control variables and proxies for sentiment, thus falling into the trap of implicitly presupposing that proxies are perfect measures of investor sentiment. As all proxies may have measurement errors to the true but unobservable investor sentiment, the current paper uses latent variable models to shed new light on the influence of investor sentiment on the P/E ratio.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 34 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

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