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1 – 10 of over 4000
Article
Publication date: 1 May 2023

Poonam Mulchandani, Rajan Pandey, Byomakesh Debata and Jayashree Renganathan

The regulatory design of Indian stock market provides us with the opportunity to disaggregate initial returns into two categories, i.e. voluntary premarket underpricing and post…

Abstract

Purpose

The regulatory design of Indian stock market provides us with the opportunity to disaggregate initial returns into two categories, i.e. voluntary premarket underpricing and post market mispricing. This study explores the impact of investor attention on the disaggregated short-run returns and long-run performance of initial public offerings (IPOs).

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs regression techniques on the sample of IPOs listed from 2005 to 2019. It measures investor attention with the help of the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) extracted from Google Trends. Along with GSVI, the subscription rate is used as a proxy to measure investor attention.

Findings

The empirical results suggest a positive and significant relationship between initial returns and investor attention, thus validating the attention theory for Indian IPOs. Furthermore, when the returns are analysed for a more extended period using buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs), it was found that price reversal holds in the long run.

Research limitations/implications

This study highlights the importance of information diffusion in the market. It emphasizes the behavioural tendency of the investors in the pre-market, which reduces the market efficiency. Hence, along with fundamentals, investor attention also plays an essential role in deciding the returns for an IPO.

Originality/value

According to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies that has attempted to explore the influence of investor attention and its interplay with underpricing and long-run performance for IPOs of Indian markets.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2023

Xiying Yao and Xuetao Yang

Since crude oil is crucial to the nation's economic growth, crude oil futures are closely related to many other markets. Accurate forecasting can offer investors trustworthy…

Abstract

Purpose

Since crude oil is crucial to the nation's economic growth, crude oil futures are closely related to many other markets. Accurate forecasting can offer investors trustworthy guidance. Numerous studies have begun to consider creating new metrics from social networks to improve forecasting models in light of their rapid development. To improve the forecasting of crude oil futures, the authors suggest an integrated model that combines investor sentiment and attention.

Design/methodology/approach

This study first creates investor attention variables using Baidu search indices and investor sentiment variables for medium sulfur crude oil (SC) futures by collecting comments from financial forums. The authors feed the price series into the NeuralProphet model to generate a new feature set using the output subsequences and predicted values. Next, the authors use the CatBoost model to extract additional features from the new feature set and perform multi-step predictions. Finally, the authors explain the model using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values and examine the direction and magnitude of each variable's influence.

Findings

The authors conduct forecasting experiments for SC futures one, two and three days in advance to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The empirical results show that the model is a reliable and effective tool for predicting, and including investor sentiment and attention variables in the model enhances its predictive power.

Research limitations/implications

The data analyzed in this paper span from 2018 through 2022, and the forecast objectives only apply to futures prices for those years. If the authors alter the sample data, the experimental process must be repeated, and the outcomes will differ. Additionally, because crude oil has financial characteristics, its price is influenced by various external circumstances, including global epidemics and adjustments in political and economic policies. Future studies could consider these factors in models to forecast crude oil futures price volatility.

Practical implications

In conclusion, the proposed integrated model provides effective multistep forecasts for SC futures, and the findings will offer crucial practical guidance for policymakers and investors. This study also considers other relevant markets, such as stocks and exchange rates, to increase the forecast precision of the model. Furthermore, the model proposed in this paper, which combines investor factors, confirms the predictive ability of investor sentiment. Regulators can utilize these findings to improve their ability to predict market risks based on changes in investor sentiment. Future research can improve predictive effectiveness by considering the inclusion of macro events and further model optimization. Additionally, this model can be adapted to forecast other financial markets, such as stock markets and other futures products.

Originality/value

The authors propose a novel integrated model that considers investor factors to enhance the accuracy of crude oil futures forecasting. This method can also be applied to other financial markets to improve their forecasting efficiency.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2023

Jiaxin Duan, Yixin (Lucy) Wei and Lei Lu

This study aims to examine the behaviour of institutional and retail investors in response to news about industry leaders (peer firms) and to determine its impact on the stock…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the behaviour of institutional and retail investors in response to news about industry leaders (peer firms) and to determine its impact on the stock prices of other firms (focal firms) within the same industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The study investigates the impact of peer news on investor behaviour of Chinese A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2010 to 2019. The media coverage of industry leaders is sourced from prominent Chinese online financial outlets and the Chinese Financial Press. Support vector machine is applied to identify the positive, neutral and negative news within the articles. The study uses event study and logistic regression to examine the effects of peer news on focal firms’ investor behaviour.

Findings

The results show that both good and bad news about leaders cause peers’ stock prices to increase initially, but then reverse within one quarter. Further analysis reveals that when leaders’ shares receive positive news coverage, institutional investors tend to exert excessive abnormal buying pressure on peers’ shares, resulting in overreactions. Conversely, retail investors do not actively trade on peers on leaders’ news day due to limited attention. In addition, the study shows that short-selling constraint inhibits bad news from reflecting in the stock prices.

Originality/value

The study highlights differences in investor behaviour. The finding that institutional investors tend to overreact more to peer firms’ news when focal firms are smaller and have a lower frequency of information disclosure supports the salient theory. This is consistent with the previous framework that suggests overreaction is more pronounced when it is difficult to combine external sources of information to evaluate the focal firms. In contrast, retail investors do not engage in active trading on peers on leaders’ news day due to the limited attention theory.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 35 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2023

Manuel Lobato, Mario Jordi Maura, Javier Rodriguez and Herminio Romero-Perez

This study aims to examine investor attention by exploring the trading behavior of investors in US-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) of countries active in the Federation…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine investor attention by exploring the trading behavior of investors in US-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) of countries active in the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cups.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study employs event study methodology to measure abnormal returns and excess trading volume of country-specific ETFs during six FIFA World Cups. The sample of ETFs includes 19 participating countries.

Findings

Consistent with investor behavior that might be explained by attention effect, the study finds that country-specific ETFs from participating countries do indeed behave differently during FIFA World Cups events. The authors find significant evidence of abnormal trading volume and, albeit weaker, abnormal returns during cups.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature on investor behavior, linking investor attention with salient sports events.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 39 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Huosong Xia, Siyi Chen, Justin Z. Zhang and Yulong Liu

The rise of the mobile Internet has accumulated much text information in various online financial forums. Such information often contains the emotional attitudes of investors…

Abstract

Purpose

The rise of the mobile Internet has accumulated much text information in various online financial forums. Such information often contains the emotional attitudes of investors toward financial technology (fintech) platforms, so extracting the sentimental tendency information has great practical value for the development of fintech platforms. Based on the investor sentiment theory, the paper aims to analyze the relevant social media data and test the influence path of online news evaluation on the stock price fluctuation of fintech platforms.

Design/methodology/approach

Taking Oriental Fortune as the research object, this paper selects multiple variables such as stock bar popularity, snowball popularity, news popularity and news sentiment scores collected by UQER and combines the sentiment scores of single daily news into a daily sentiment score. Based on the period from November 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020, during the emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as the background, the authors conduct the Granger causality test based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and analyze the relevant evaluation of Oriental Fortune through the empirical model.

Findings

The authors' results show that different online evaluations impact the rise and fall of stock prices differently, while news popularity has the most significant impact. Besides, news sentiment scores on share price fluctuation have a relatively substantial influence. These findings indicate that the authoritative news evaluation can strongly guide investors to make relevant investment behavior operations in the information dissemination process, significantly affecting stock prices.

Originality/value

The research findings of this paper have good inspiration and reference values for investors and financial regulators.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 March 2023

Vladimir Dmitrievich Milovidov

The purpose of the article is to show the changing behavior of investors in the post-pandemic period, the continued development of “emotional communities” in the financial market…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the article is to show the changing behavior of investors in the post-pandemic period, the continued development of “emotional communities” in the financial market, as well as the factors contributing to their formation and the role of such communities in the elaboration of investors' decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The research includes an analysis of the popularity of various terms searched in the US segment of Google in the financial category from 2004 to 2022, their correlation with financial market indicators and theoretical observations around these data.

Findings

The results obtained by the author allow him to draw the following conclusions: (1) the change in investors' behavior indicates the formation of the new distributed community-centric model of the financial market; (2) the main distinguishing feature of the behavior of many retail investors is gamification; (3) the networking of investors contributes to a significant change in their priorities in the elaboration of investment decisions; (4) the fundamental indicators of the financial market play an ever decreasing role in the decision-making of individual investors.

Originality/value

To the best of the author's knowledge, the formation of emotional communities of investors and their role in the elaboration of mass investor decisions is not widely covered in the literature. The paper develops a framework for further studies on the role of emotional communities in the financial market and in changing behavior of retail investors.

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Valeriia Baklanova, Aleksei Kurkin and Tamara Teplova

The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the influence of investor sentiment on the overall sales of non-fungible token (NFT) assets. To achieve this objective, the NFT hype index was constructed as well as several approaches of XAI were employed to interpret Black Box models and assess the magnitude and direction of the impact of the features used.

Design/methodology/approach

The research paper involved the construction of a sentiment index termed the NFT hype index, which aims to measure the influence of market actors within the NFT industry. This index was created by analyzing written content posted by 62 high-profile individuals and opinion leaders on the social media platform Twitter. The authors collected posts from the Twitter accounts that were afterward classified by tonality with a help of natural language processing model VADER. Then the machine learning methods and XAI approaches (feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP) were applied to explain the obtained results.

Findings

The built index was subjected to rigorous analysis using the gradient boosting regressor model and explainable AI techniques, which confirmed its significant explanatory power. Remarkably, the NFT hype index exhibited a higher degree of predictive accuracy compared to the well-known sentiment indices.

Practical implications

The NFT hype index, constructed from Twitter textual data, functions as an innovative, sentiment-based indicator for investment decision-making in the NFT market. It offers investors unique insights into the market sentiment that can be used alongside conventional financial analysis techniques to enhance risk management, portfolio optimization and overall investment outcomes within the rapidly evolving NFT ecosystem. Thus, the index plays a crucial role in facilitating well-informed, data-driven investment decisions and ensuring a competitive edge in the digital assets market.

Originality/value

The authors developed a novel index of investor interest for NFT assets (NFT hype index) based on text messages posted by market influencers and compared it to conventional sentiment indices in terms of their explanatory power. With the application of explainable AI, it was shown that sentiment indices may perform as significant predictors for NFT sales and that the NFT hype index works best among all sentiment indices considered.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 August 2021

Omar Farooq, Harit Satt and Fatimazahra Bendriouch

This paper aims to document the relationship between advertising expenditures and analyst coverage in a sample of Indian firms during the period between 2000 and 2019.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to document the relationship between advertising expenditures and analyst coverage in a sample of Indian firms during the period between 2000 and 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to test the effect of advertising expenditures on the extent of analyst coverage, the authors estimate various versions of pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The dependent variable (ANALYST) measures the total number of analysts covering a firm in a given year. The main independent variable of interest in this paper represents the advertising activity. The authors define the extent of advertising activity (ADVERT) as the ratio of total advertising expenditures and total assets.

Findings

The study’s results show that advertising expenditures have a significantly positive impact on the extent of analyst coverage and are robust across various proxies of the key variables and various estimation procedures.

Practical implications

There are a number of key takeaways from our study. First, firms that expend more resources on advertising are more likely to be followed by analysts which is associated with better performance, lower information asymmetries associated and high advertising expenditures. Second, stock prices with more information embedded in them may signify that these firms receive more attention from investors and have lower information asymmetries. And finally the impact of advertising on the decision of an analyst to cover a firm becomes more pronounced for firms with high stock price synchronicity. All these three main conclusions are giving investors a clear insight on analyst coverage, advertising expenditure and the link between the two.

Originality/value

The results are consistent with the argument that advertising expenditures induces analysts to cover firms because firms with high advertising activities are more likely to have better performance, lower information asymmetries and increased attention from investors. All of these factors are supposed to facilitate the analyst coverage.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Jihoon Goh and Donghoon Kim

In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the…

Abstract

In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the composite mispricing index. Our results suggest that investors' demand for the lottery and the arbitrage risk effect of MAX may overlap and negate each other. Furthermore, MAX itself has independent information apart from idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL), which assures that the high positive correlation between IVOL and MAX does not directly cause our empirical findings. Finally, by analyzing the direct trading behavior of investors, our results suggest that investors' buying pressure for lottery-like stocks is concentrated among overpriced stocks.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2023

Shuai Yang, Yu Zhao and Chao Wu

The interaction between evaluators is underestimated in legitimacy literature. This study aims to examine the impact of CEO celebrity on initial public offerings (IPOs…

Abstract

Purpose

The interaction between evaluators is underestimated in legitimacy literature. This study aims to examine the impact of CEO celebrity on initial public offerings (IPOs) underpricing in Strategic Emerging Industries (SEIs). Based on legitimacy and limited attention effect, this study introduces a new antecedent to the asset pricing literature under a particular sample.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper illustrates how CEO celebrity promotes IPO underpricing by enhancing the legitimacy and then explores how the CEO characteristics can moderate this relationship. Using 1,128 IPO companies in China SEIs from 2010 to 2019, cross-section data is used to build a multiple linear regression model to test the hypotheses.

Findings

The result indicates that CEO celebrity is positively related to IPO underpricing. Founder CEO and CEO duality amplify the relationship. Further analysis shows that the relationship between CEO celebrity and IPO underpricing is more pronounced in firms with high Baidu search and low market sentiment.

Originality/value

This study provides insights into how CEO celebrity as notable internal information shapes the formation of investors' preliminary impressions of firms. The evidence consists of legitimacy and limited attention perspective by showing how investors favor, follow and hype the stocks with celebrity CEOs. The results extend the knowledge about how CEO characteristics influence information frictions in asset pricing during IPO.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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