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Book part
Publication date: 16 January 2014

Tomoki Kitamura and Munenori Nakasato

Previous studies showed mixed results as to the cause of myopic loss aversion (MLA). This paper reexamines the main driver of MLA, considering two factors from previous studies…

Abstract

Purpose

Previous studies showed mixed results as to the cause of myopic loss aversion (MLA). This paper reexamines the main driver of MLA, considering two factors from previous studies and an additional factor.

Design/methodology/approach

Experimentally investigate whether flexibility of investment, frequency of information feedback, or timing of decision cause MLA.

Findings

Timing of decision and flexibility of investment explain most differences in subject behavior. Frequency of information feedback makes only a marginal contribution.

Originality/value of the paper

The differences in subject behavior can be interpreted by a shift in their reference points depending on the difference in flexibility of investment, frequency of information feedback, or timing of decision.

Details

Experiments in Financial Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-141-0

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 June 2021

Hyo-Chan Lee, Seyoung Park and Jong Mun Yoon

This study aims to generalize the following result of McDonald and Siegel (1986) on optimal investment: it is optimal for an investor to invest when project cash flows exceed a…

Abstract

This study aims to generalize the following result of McDonald and Siegel (1986) on optimal investment: it is optimal for an investor to invest when project cash flows exceed a certain threshold. This study presents other results that refine or extend this one by integrating timing flexibility and changes in cash flows with time-varying transition probabilities for regime switching. This study emphasizes that optimal thresholds are either overvalued or undervalued in the absence of time-varying transition probabilities. Accordingly, the stochastic nature of transition probabilities has important implications to the search for optimal timing of investment.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 29 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 August 2012

Tony Chieh‐Tse Hou

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether mutual fund investors can make effective cash flow timing decisions and examine the sensitivity of these decisions to past fund…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether mutual fund investors can make effective cash flow timing decisions and examine the sensitivity of these decisions to past fund performance using cash flow data at the individual fund level.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines performance persistence and investor timing ability of 200 domestic equity mutual funds in Taiwan between 1996 and 2009. In particular, a performance gap measuring the difference between dollar‐weighted average monthly returns and geometric average monthly returns is used to evaluate investors' timing ability.

Findings

The empirical results show that funds that have performed well (poorly) in the previous year tend to continue performing well (poorly) in the following year, and investors' timing performance is negatively related to fund performance. The results also show that investors' timing performance is significantly and negatively related to fund size, length of fund history, and momentum‐style of funds, but positively related to value‐style funds. These results suggest that mutual fund investors are loss‐averse and demonstrate return‐chasing behavior in well‐performing funds.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the mutual fund performance literature by proposing an integrated framework that jointly tests fund performance and how it affects investors' cash flow timing decisions. Furthermore, the paper individually measures investors' timing sensitivity for the current best (worst) performance funds and consecutive two‐year best (worst) performance funds, and contributes to a growing body of research on the behavior of mutual fund investors.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 38 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2007

Soo‐Wah Low

The paper seeks to examine whether selectivity and timing performance of fund manager is sensitive to the choice of market benchmarks. The two benchmarks used are the Kuala Lumpur…

5203

Abstract

Purpose

The paper seeks to examine whether selectivity and timing performance of fund manager is sensitive to the choice of market benchmarks. The two benchmarks used are the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the Exchange Main Board All‐Share (EMAS) Index.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper seeks to employed Jensen's model to estimate the overall fund performance and Henriksson and Merton's model to separate the fund manager's investment performance into the selectivity and market‐timing components.

Findings

The findings indicate that, on average, the funds display negative overall performance with either the KLCI or the EMAS Index. In addition, there is little variation in the manager's market‐timing and selectivity performance across alternative market benchmarks. It is also reported that a manager's poor timing ability contributes significantly to the fund's negative overall performance.

Research limitations/implications

The paper employed just two market benchmarks. Inclusion of more market benchmarks in future research may provide further support for the existing findings.

Practical implications

Regardless of the market benchmarks used, the results imply that fund managers should seriously reassess their market timing efforts, given that their predictions are very often in the wrong direction than in the right direction. Such findings suggest that no economic benefit accrues to the average fund manager involved in market‐timing activities.

Originality/value

The paper provides first evidence on the sensitivity of a fund manager's separate investment components (timing and selectivity) to different specification of the market benchmarks.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 October 2017

Nuno Manuel Veloso Neto, Júlio Fernando Seara Sequeira da Mota Lobão and Elisabete Simões Vieira

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Portuguese fund managers by examining the selectivity and market timing skills of 51 Portuguese mutual funds from June 2002 to…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Portuguese fund managers by examining the selectivity and market timing skills of 51 Portuguese mutual funds from June 2002 to March 2012.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors assess empirically the performance of a sample of funds by applying the unconditional and conditional models of Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981).

Findings

The results suggest that, overall, the Portuguese mutual funds do not possess selectivity or timing skills. However, regardless of the model used, the domestic equity funds exhibit a statistically significant market timing ability. Furthermore, the domestic and North American equity funds display positive selectivity during bull markets and timing skills during bear markets. Additionally, there is some evidence that older funds are better stock pickers than younger funds.

Research limitations/implications

To address some of the limitations of this study, the authors suggest for further research correcting the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) model for the convexity cost of replicating Merton’s (1981) option approach. Additionally, for further research, we suggest using a bigger sample, higher frequency data, as such data may lead to higher frequency of timing ability as proposed by Bollen and Busse (2001). To overcome some of the limitations of traditional models, future research may consider using Jiang’s (2003) nonparametric test, as it is not affected by manager’s risk aversion, or Ferson and Khang (2002) conditional performance evaluation using portfolios holdings.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the current literature by extending the period of study to 10 years in comparison to previous studies; extending the sample of funds to 51; addressing, for the first time in this context, the importance of public information on funds’ performance, through the comparison of unconditional and conditional models of Treynor and Mazuy’s (1966) and Henriksson and Merton’s (1981); and, for the first time in the Portuguese context, analysing the relationship between funds’ size, age and market cycles and selectivity and market timing skills.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 34 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2020

Mahfooz Alam and Valeed Ahmad Ansari

This paper investigates the style timing and liquidity style timing vis-à-vis the market, size, value and momentum factors of the actively managed Indian equity mutual funds.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the style timing and liquidity style timing vis-à-vis the market, size, value and momentum factors of the actively managed Indian equity mutual funds.

Design/methodology/approach

We examine the style timing of the funds using the augmented Carhart four-factor model by incorporating timing measures (Treynor and Mazuy; Henriksson and Merton). Based on this, the study explores the four-factor liquidity and volatility style timing exhibited by fund managers. The sample is from April 2000 to March 2018 and spans the volatile 2008 subprime economic crises. The sample comprised 182 actively managed equity funds from various sizes and was considered to be a well-diversified sample.

Findings

The results of our study provide strong evidence of market liquidity timing in India. No other style timing skills are observed in our analysis. Our results also imply that the fund managers might misidentify size timing as market timing if integrated liquidity timing measures are not employed, leading to false conclusions.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of our study imply that the fund managers might misidentify size timing as market timing if integrated liquidity timing measures are not employed, leading to false conclusions.

Originality/value

This study, to our knowledge, is the first attempt to investigate the portfolio-based style timing in the Indian context.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 June 2020

Wanyi Chen

Tax risk refers to the uncertainty of future corporate taxation. Tax reform is a key issue in major current tax system adjustments that seriously affect a firm's tax risk. In…

Abstract

Purpose

Tax risk refers to the uncertainty of future corporate taxation. Tax reform is a key issue in major current tax system adjustments that seriously affect a firm's tax risk. In response to changes in the economic environment, many countries are actively executing tax reform. Long-term reforms implemented for a smooth transition may instead increase corporate risk. This study examines the relationship among tax risk, tax reform and investment timing.

Design/methodology/approach

Selecting the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange A-share listed companies' panel data from 2008 to 2017, the paper used survival analysis and the propensity score matching-difference in difference models.

Findings

The results show that a higher corporate tax risk results in more deferred investments, which are further examined using the latest Chinese value-added tax reform as a natural experiment.

Originality/value

The conclusion serves as an important reference for governments to balance reform time and to support enterprises in effectively identifying and managing tax risk under tax reform.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2015

Praveen K. Das and S. P. Uma Rao

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market timing and stock selection abilities of socially responsible (SR) mutual funds. Some high-profile SR fund managers try to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market timing and stock selection abilities of socially responsible (SR) mutual funds. Some high-profile SR fund managers try to embrace market timing and security selection plans to add value to the performance. Market timing relies on forecasting the equity market and shifting assets into or out of the market in anticipation of market movements. The selectivity measure assesses fund managers ability to select undervalued securities. Furthermore, the authors examine whether fund characteristics play any role in market timing and security selection ability.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Treynor and Mazuy's’ (1966) and Henriksson and Mertons’ (1981) model to examine the market timing and security selection ability. The study uses a decade of monthly returns to examine the skills of fund managers in the SR industry for the period from July 2002 to June 2012.

Findings

The main findings are that the managers – though not very successful – do indulge in stock selection and market timing activities. It was found that 48 funds have positive statistically significant stock selectivity coefficients and only a very small number of five funds with positive statistically significant market timing coefficients. Results suggest that there is a trade-off between the two activities. It was found that aggressive funds, funds with higher growth rate and riskier funds are more likely to engage in market timing rather than stock selection.

Practical implications

The implication is that SR managers cannot achieve superior stock selection and market timing ability simultaneously. Risk-averting investors in SR funds expect SR behavior from the managers. This means that managers of SR funds, with very little evidence of market timing ability, may have to refrain from market timing of SR funds.

Originality/value

Using a Morningstar dataset comprising almost all SR funds in existence as of June 2012, this is probably the most exhaustive long-term study to date on market timing and stock selection abilities of SR fund managers.

Details

Social Responsibility Journal, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1747-1117

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 August 2013

Jianfu Shen and Frederik Pretorius

The purpose of this paper is to construct option pricing models for real estate development by considering and incorporating institutional arrangements, direct interactions and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to construct option pricing models for real estate development by considering and incorporating institutional arrangements, direct interactions and financial constraints in the model. It extends the application of real option theory from the framework borrowed from financial option pricing, and considers the case where a development company has restrictions from outside environment and financial constraint. It explores the effects of these additional practical factors on real asset project value and development timing. This paper makes contributions to bridge the theoretical models and practical applications.

Design/methodology/approach

Real estate development is modelled in the binomial option pricing framework with the considerations of time‐to‐build, foregone rent if delaying, institutional environment and capital budgeting. The investment timings are derived from the models and sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the effects of these factors.

Findings

Apart from the factors in traditional option pricing theory, this paper confirms that the contractual covenants, positive synergies between properties and financial status of the firm, which enhance or restrict real flexibility embedded in the development land, influence project value and investment timing. Numerical examples illustrate the effects of these factors. It is argued that the valuation of real options should place emphasis on industry‐specific characteristics and start from the perspective of the firm rather than individual options.

Practical implications

The models constructed in this paper and the results can be directly used in the practical real estate development.

Originality/value

This paper incorporates many practical factors in real estate development which are not investigated in previous studies. It values the option project from the firm perspective rather than project perspective as previous studies. It also shows the effects of institutional arrangement and firm factors on project value and development timing.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 31 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 October 2018

Syed Haroon Rashid, Mohsin Sadaqat, Khalil Jebran and Zulfiqar Ali Memon

This study aims to investigate the market timing strategy in different market conditions (i.e. up, down, normal and in-financial-crisis situation) in the emerging market of…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the market timing strategy in different market conditions (i.e. up, down, normal and in-financial-crisis situation) in the emerging market of Pakistan over the period 1995 to 2015. Furthermore, this study tests the validity of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and Fama and French model.

Design/methodology/approach

This study considers monthly stock returns of 167 firms and constructs six different portfolios on the basis of different size and book to market ratio. The Treynor and Mazuy model is used to capture the market timing strategy.

Findings

The results indicate evidence of the market timing in normal market conditions. However, there is less supportive evidence of market timing in up-market, down-market and in-financial-crisis situations. This study also confirms the validity of the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French three-factor model with strong support of value premium and size premium in the stock market.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are helpful to companies in estimating the cost of issuing equity more accurately. The investors can use market timing to make their investment in a more better and profitable manner.

Originality/value

Unlike other previous studies, this study considers an extended period to test the validity of the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French model. In addition, this study is novel in testing the marketing timing of the firms in the context of emerging economy of Pakistan.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 23 no. 46
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 154000