Search results

The objective of this research is to assess whether two events, the 9‐21 Earthquake in 1999 and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003, had a temporary or long‐term impact on the inbound tourism demand from Japan. Furthermore, a comparative study is conducted to assess whether intervention analysis produces better forecasts compared with forecasts without intervention analysis.

The data adopted in this study consist of monthly visitor arrivals from Japan to Taiwan for the period January 1979‐September 2006. The first 321 observations ( January 1979‐September 2005) are used to develop two tentative models, with and without intervention analyses, and then compare with the known values (October 2005‐September 2006) for accuracy testing.

Experimental results show that the effect of both disasters on Japanese inbound tourism presented only temporarily, and the forecasting efficiency of ARIMA with intervention is superior to that of a model without intervention.

The study had difficulty accurately delineating the rebound in Japanese tourist based on monthly data. There are other factors that might influence a rebound, such as people' fading memories or the purpose of visitation. The geographic proximity of Taiwan to Japan could also account for perceived risk factors.

The results indicate that the Japanese inbound arrivals sharply dropped following both of the two disastrous occurrences, suggesting that the Japanese tourists are likely to be responsive to prompt marketing strategies and messages. The practical implication for tourism operators include the usefulness of reinforcing the package holiday by establishing an attractively priced travel package or offering a package with a variety of highly desirable or unique features to increase competition.

This study is a first attempt in the tourism literature to model Japanese demand for travel to Taiwan after these two traumatic crises.

Although different facets of managerial third‐party intervention in organizations have been explored, we know little about how managers should intervene in different disputes for resolving them successfully. In this study, a prescriptive model of intervention strategy selection proposed by Elangovan (1995) is tested. Data on successful and unsuccessful interventions were collected from senior managers in different organizations. The results show that following the prescriptions of the model leads to a significant increase in the likelihood that an intervention would be successful as well as in the degree of success of the intervention, thereby supporting a contingency view of dispute intervention.

The paper aims to investigate the determinants of China’s daily intervention in the foreign exchange market since the 2005 reform aimed at moving the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate regime towards greater flexibility.

The paper uses bivariate probit models to test whether China’s intervention decision is driven by three sets of factors, comprising Model I (basic model), Model II and Model III.

Evidence from the models suggests that medium-term Chinese interventions tend to be leaning-against-the-wind, whereas long-term interventions are leaning-with-the-wind. Furthermore, by analyzing exchange rate volatility, this paper finds that intervention is used by the Chinese central bank to ensure that there are no big swings in the RMB exchange rate.

The paper will be of value to other researchers attempting to understand the policy of the central bank and, in particular, the factors that can lead to interventions during periods of financial crisis.

Interventions to support gender equality in organisations are often unsuccessful. Stakeholders disagree about the causes and problem definition of gender equality or pay lip service to the principle of gender equality, but fail to implement gender equality in practice. The purpose of this paper is to examine participatory modelling as an intervention method to support stakeholders in: reaching a shared problem definition and analysis of gender inequality; and identifying and implementing policies to tackle gender inequality.

The authors apply participatory modelling in case studies on impediments to women’s careers in two Dutch universities.

This study shows that participatory modelling supported stakeholders’ identification of the self-reinforcing feedback processes of masculinity of norms, visibility of women and networking of women and the interrelatedness between these processes. Causal loop diagrams visualise how the feedback processes are interrelated and can stabilise or reinforce themselves. Moreover, they allow for the identification of possible interventions.

Further testing of the causal loop diagrams by quantifying the stocks and the flows would validate the feedback processes and the estimated effects of possible interventions.

The integration of the knowledge of researchers and stakeholders in a causal loop diagram supported learning about the issue of gender inequality, hereby contributing to transformative change on gender equality.

The originality of the paper lies in the application of participatory modelling in interventions to support gender equality.

Livelihood interventions are recognized as instruments to deliver sustainable development by addressing multidimensional issues of poverty. Despite several interventions, success still remains trivial due to various interactive determinants. The purpose of this paper is to present the hierarchical model of determinants of rural livelihood interventions in India.

This study adopts interpretive structural modelling (ISM) approach to explore the interactive relationships among determinants. Then, by using the Matrice d’ Impacts Croises - Multipication Applique a classement (MICMAC) approach, these determinants are classified into four groups on the basis of their driving power and dependence power.

The research findings include identification of nine critical determinants using hybrid research process. These nine determinants are classified into four distinct levels revealing different extents of influence on livelihood outcomes. The results show that strong emphasis should be given to local institutions and enclosing institutional environment in terms of good governance and better convergence.

The research findings offer insights for policy-makers on the hierarchical model among determinants. The study will help to close the existing dominant gap between theory and practice and imply corresponding methods and processes to deliver better livelihood outcomes.

This study contributes to policy literature by providing a structural model for interventions. This model identifies the dominant as well as mediating determinants and thereby guides policymakers to develop corresponding instruments and strategies. The study also contributes to rural development literature by identifying various interactive contextual relationships and thereby classifying the high priority determinants.

This paper highlights the social context of common mental disorders in primary care and the paucity of evidence relating to effective social interventions. It introduces the ABC‐E Model of Emotion, which combines social interventions with psychological therapy, and discusses how the implementation of the new role of graduate primary care mental health worker (GPCMHW) provides an opportunity for holistic practice in helping individuals experiencing mild to moderate mental health difficulties in primary care. It provides a case example of the implementation of the ABC‐E model and makes recommendations for further research including the evaluation of the model and GPCMHW training programmes.

The purpose of this paper is to understand one aspect of electronic health record adoption by studying the impact of policy interventions on the adoption among hospitals, physicians and patients, using a system dynamics simulation model.

A system dynamics simulation model of the existing distribution network was built. Policy experiments were conducted to compare the performance of each.

Using data from the Greater Capital Region, Northern New York State, the findings from the simulation experiments suggest that while there is no single right intervention, a combination of measures can promote the adoption of electronic health records by different stakeholders.

The results are based on simplified operational and structural assumptions regarding the diffusion of electronic health records among stakeholder groups. Some of the variables are based on theoretical rather than quantifiable values.

The results of this study have practical implications when it comes to designing effective policies to improve the adoption rate of electronic health records. The theoretical contribution will help stakeholders to take leadership roles in policy discussion.

This paper is a theoretical study describing a unique application of simulation methods to an important area of application. Use and evaluation for model‐based approaches could provide additional insight about the potential value of simulation for social learning and effective approaches to making public policy decisions.

This study aims to develop an influence perspective for managerial intervention in subordinates conflicts, which helps to represent various strategies identified in the literature in a single model. Managers' power base was then related to their intervention strategies. Drawing upon Social Judgment Theory, anchoring of subordinates positions is studied as a moderating variable.

Thirty nine supervisors and their 165 subordinates from several organizations in Turkey filled out a questionnaire reporting power base of supervisor and their intervention strategy utilizing the critical incident technique.

Referent power of superior led to mediation in subordinates' conflicts. However, mediation decreased while restructuring, arbitration, and educative strategies increased with increased anchoring of subordinates' positions. These latter strategies mostly relied on reward power of manager. Subordinate satisfaction was highest with mediation and lowest when supervisors distanced themselves from the conflict.

The present study could only test the moderating effect of escalation as an anchoring variable. Future studies may look at the anchoring effect of whether the dispute is handled in public or in private, and whether the parties have a competing versus collaborative or compromising styles.

Training of managers in mediation may be essential in cultures where they play a focal role in handling subordinates conflicts. Such training may have to take into account their broader influence strategies and use of power.

An influence perspective is useful in integrating the vast array of managerial intervention strategies in the literature. Furthermore, the anchoring effect provides a theoretical explanation for managers' use of more forceful intervention with less cooperative subordinates.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how workplace interventions may benefit from a simultaneous focus on individuals’ learning and knowledge and on the situatedness of workplaces in the wider world of changing professional knowledge regimes. This is illustrated by the demand for evidence-based practice in health care.

The paper is based on a case study in a public post-natal ward in a hospital in Denmark in which one of the authors acted as both a consultant initiating and leading interventions and a researcher using ethnographic methods. The guiding question was: How to incorporate the dynamics of the workplace when doing intervention in professionals’ work and learning?

The findings of the paper show how workplace interventions consist of heterogeneous alliances between politics, discourse and technologies rather than something that can be traced back to a single plan or agency. Furthermore, the paper proposes, a road down the middle, made up by both an intentional and a performative model for intervention.

Intervention in workplaces is often directed towards changing humans, their behaviour, their ways of communicating and their attitudes. This is often furthered through reflection, making the success of intervention depend on individuals’ abilities to learn and change. In this paper, it is shown how intervention may benefit from bringing in workplace issues like different professional knowledge regimes, hierarchical structures, materiality, politics and power.

Dwelling retrofit strategies generally concentrate on measures to reduce energy use and carbon emissions. However, climate change projections predict increases in both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heat waves. It is predicted that by the 2040s severe heat waves similar to the European one in August 2003 may be expected to occur every year. Future guidance therefore needs to combine mitigation with adaptation in order to provide safe and comfortable dwellings, whilst also reducing heating energy use, within the available retrofit budget. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The research presented here used dynamic thermal simulation (EnergyPlus) to model a range of passive interventions on selected dwelling types to predict the effect on both dwelling overheating during a heat wave and annual space heating energy use. The interventions include modifications and additions to solar control, insulation and ventilation.

Results demonstrate the effectiveness of interventions that reduce solar heat gains, with external shutters fitted to windows being the most effective single intervention in many cases. Solar reflective coatings also reduce overheating but lead to increased winter heating energy use, whilst wall insulation reduces heating energy use but can, in some cases, lead to increased overheating. The choice of wall insulation type is shown to be very important, with external insulation consistently performing better than internal for overheating reduction. The modelling further demonstrates that combined interventions can significantly reduce or in many cases eliminate overheating. Overheating exposure was found to vary significantly (up to a factor of ten times) between dwelling types. It can be significantly greater for residents who have to stay at home during the daytime, such as the elderly or infirm, and different interventions are sometimes more suitable in these cases.

An innovative modelling methodology integrating overheating reduction, heating energy use and intervention cost has been developed and implemented for adapting UK dwellings to future heat waves. Other innovations include an automated approach for large volumes of simulations (over 180,000); a unique graphical interpretation method for presenting single and combined intervention results; and a user-friendly, interactive retrofit toolkit, which is available online for public access and free of charge.