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With the rise in wine consumption, accurate wine price forecasts have significantly impacted restaurant and hotel purchasing decisions and inventory management. This study aims to develop a precise and effective wine price point and interval forecasting model.

The proposed forecast model uses an improved hybrid kernel extreme learning machine with an attention mechanism and a multi-objective swarm intelligent optimization algorithm to produce more accurate price estimates. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at applying artificial intelligence techniques to improve wine price prediction. Additionally, an effective method for predicting price intervals was constructed by leveraging the characteristics of the error distribution. This approach facilitates quantifying the uncertainty of wine price fluctuations, thus rendering decision-making by relevant practitioners more reliable and controllable.

The empirical findings indicated that the proposed forecast model provides accurate wine price predictions and reliable uncertainty analysis results. Compared with the benchmark models, the proposed model exhibited superiority in both one-step- and multi-step-ahead forecasts. Meanwhile, the model provides new evidence from artificial intelligence to explain wine prices and understand their driving factors.

This study is a pioneering attempt to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of advanced artificial intelligence techniques in wine price forecasts. The proposed forecast model not only provides useful options for wine price forecasting but also introduces an innovative addition to existing forecasting research methods and literature.

The duration of an urban search and rescue (USAR) operation directly depends on the number of rescue teams involved. The purpose of this paper is to simplify the earthquake environment and determine the initial number of rescuers in earthquake emergencies in USAR operation.

In the proposed methodology, four primary steps were considered: evaluation of buildings damage and the number of injured people by exerting geospatial information system (GIS) analyses; determining service time by means of task allocation; designing the simulation model (queuing theory); and calculation of survival rate and comparison with the time of rescue operations.

The calculation of buildings damage for an earthquake with 6.6 Richter in Tehran’s District One indicated that 18% of buildings are subjected to the high damage risk. The number of injured people calculated was 28,856. According to the calculated survival rate, rescue operations in the region must be completed within 22.33 h to save 75% of the casualties. Finally, the design of the queue model indicated that at least 2,300 rescue teams were required to provide the calculated survival rate.

The originality of this paper is an innovative approach for determining an appropriate number of rescue teams by considering the queuing theory. The results showed that the integration of GIS and the simulation of queuing theory could be a helpful tool in natural disaster management, especially in terms of rapid vulnerability assessment in urban districts, the adequacy and appropriateness of the emergency services.

Confidence intervals play a crucial role in economics and finance, providing a credible range of values for an unknown parameter along with a corresponding level of certainty. Their applications encompass economic forecasting, market research, financial forecasting, econometric analysis, policy analysis, financial reporting, investment decision-making, credit risk assessment and consumer confidence surveys. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) finds applications in economics and finance across various domains such as economic forecasting, financial modeling, market analysis and risk assessment. A high SNR indicates a robust and dependable signal, simplifying the process of making well-informed decisions. On the other hand, a low SNR indicates a weak signal that could be obscured by noise, so decision-making procedures need to take this into serious consideration. This research focuses on the development of confidence intervals for functions derived from the SNR and explores their application in the fields of economics and finance.

The construction of the confidence intervals involved the application of various methodologies. For the SNR, confidence intervals were formed using the generalized confidence interval (GCI), large sample and Bayesian approaches. The difference between SNRs was estimated through the GCI, large sample, method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER), parametric bootstrap and Bayesian approaches. Additionally, confidence intervals for the common SNR were constructed using the GCI, adjusted MOVER, computational and Bayesian approaches. The performance of these confidence intervals was assessed using coverage probability and average length, evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation.

The GCI approach demonstrated superior performance over other approaches in terms of both coverage probability and average length for the SNR and the difference between SNRs. Hence, employing the GCI approach is advised for constructing confidence intervals for these parameters. As for the common SNR, the Bayesian approach exhibited the shortest average length. Consequently, the Bayesian approach is recommended for constructing confidence intervals for the common SNR.

This research presents confidence intervals for functions of the SNR to assess SNR estimation in the fields of economics and finance.

The effective prediction of crude oil futures prices can provide a reference for relevant enterprises to make production plans and investment decisions. To the nonlinearity, high volatility and uncertainty of the crude oil futures price, a matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model combined with an exponential accumulation generating operator (MNEGBM(1,1)) is proposed in this paper.

First, the original sequence is processed by the exponential accumulation generating operator to weaken its volatility. The nonlinear grey Bernoulli and exponential function models are combined to fit the preprocessed sequence. Then, the parameters in MNEGBM(1,1) are matrixed, so the ternary interval number sequence can be modeled directly. Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is chosen to optimize the nonlinear parameters. Finally, the Cramer rule is used to derive the time recursive formula.

The predictive effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing it with five comparison models. Crude oil futures prices in Cushing, OK are predicted and analyzed from 2023/07 to 2023/12. The prediction results show it will gradually decrease over the next six months.

Crude oil futures prices are highly volatile in the short term. The use of grey model for short-term prediction is valuable for research. For the data characteristics of crude oil futures price, this study first proposes an improved model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices.

As supply chain excellence matters, designing an appropriate health-care supply chain is a great consideration to the health-care providers worldwide. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to benchmark several potential health-care supply chains to design an efficient and effective one in the presence of mixed data.

To achieve this objective, this research illustrates a hybrid algorithm based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and goal programming (GP) for designing real-world health-care supply chains with mixed data. A DEA model along with a data aggregation is suggested to evaluate the performance of several potential configurations of the health-care supply chains. As part of the proposed approach, a GP model is conducted for dimensioning the supply chains under assessment by finding the level of the original variables (inputs and outputs) that characterize these supply chains.

This paper presents an algorithm for modeling health-care supply chains exclusively designed to handle crisp and interval data simultaneously.

The outcome of this study will assist the health-care decision-makers in comparing their supply chains against peers and dimensioning their resources to achieve a given level of productions.

A real application to design a real-life pharmaceutical supply chain for the public ministry of health in Morocco is given to support the usefulness of the proposed algorithm.

The novelty of this paper comes from the development of a hybrid approach based on DEA and GP to design an appropriate real-life health-care supply chain in the presence of mixed data. This approach definitely contributes to assist health-care decision-makers design an efficient and effective supply chain in today’s competitive word.

The purpose of the paper is set to minimize the total cost of a manufacturing system when an acceptance sampling plan (ASP) is carried out in a fuzzy environment.

A fuzzy acceptance sampling plan (FASP) is employed for the inspection of the batch of products and a fuzzy cost optimization problem is formulated.

The extent of uncertainty determines an interval for the total cost function with upper and lower bounds. The effect of variation in the ambiguity of the proportion of defectives in the probability of acceptance is determined.

The proposed model is specifically designed for production and supply units with ASP for attributes. Still, the proportion of defectives in the inspection process is fuzzy.

Fuzzy probability distribution is used to model an optimal inspection plan for a general supply chain. Economic design of supply chain under fuzzy proportion of defectives is discussed for the first time.

This paper investigates a problem in a reverse logistics (RLs) network to decide whether to dispose of unsold goods in primary stores or re-commercialize them in outlet centers. By deducting the costs associated with each policy from its revenue, this study aims to maximize the profit from managing unsold goods.

A new mixed-integer linear programming model has been developed to address the problem, which considers the selling prices of products in primary and secondary stores and the costs of transportation, cross-docking and returning unwanted items. As a result of uncertain nature of the cost and time parameters, gray numbers are used to deal with it. In addition, an innovative uncertain solution approach for gray programming problems is presented that considers objective function satisfaction level as an indicator of optimism.

According to the results, higher costs, including transportation, cross-docking and return costs, make sending goods to outlet centers unprofitable and more goods are disposed of in primary stores. Prices in primary and secondary stores heavily influence the number of discarded goods. Higher prices in primary stores result in more disposed of goods, while higher prices in secondary stores result in fewer. As a result of the proposed method, the objective function satisfaction level can be viewed as a measure of optimism.

An integral contribution of this study is developing a new mixed-integer linear programming model for selecting the appropriate goods for re-commercialization and choosing the best outlet center based on the products' price and total profit. Another novelty of the proposed model is considering the matching percentage of boxes with secondary stores’ desired product lists and the probability of returning goods due to non-compliance with delivery dates. Moreover, a new uncertain solution approach is developed to solve mathematical programming problems with gray parameters.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The primary aim of this research was to investigate the mediating effect of the decision-making structure on the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and hospital performance.

Online and manual survey questionnaires were used to collect data in this study. The target population of this study consists of all middle managers within 11 COVID-19 referral hospitals in Surabaya. A total of 189 responses were collected, however, 27 incomplete responses were excluded from the final dataset. Data was analyzed using SEM-PLS.

The study's findings indicate that decision-making structure plays a role in mediating the link between perceived environmental uncertainty and hospital performance assessed via the Balanced Scorecard, highlighting the significance of flexible decision-making processes during uncertain periods. Moreover, based on our supplementary test, respondents' demographic characteristics influence their perceptions of hospital performance.

Hospital administrators can consider the significance of decision-making structures in responding to environmental uncertainties like the COVID-19 pandemic. By fostering adaptable decision-making processes and empowering middle managers, hospitals may enhance their performance and resilience in challenging situations. Additionally, based on supplementary tests, it is found that differences in the perception of the three Balanced Scorecard perspectives imply that hospitals categorized as types A, B, C, and D should prioritize specific areas to improve their overall performance.

This research adds substantial originality and value to the existing body of knowledge by exploring the interplay between decision-making structures, environmental uncertainty, and hospital performance. It contributes to the literature by specifically focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic, a unique and unprecedented global crisis.

Digital lean implementation can solve the dual problem of stagnating quality and rising costs in healthcare. Although technology adoption in healthcare has increased in the post-COVID world, value unlocking using technology needs a well-thought-out approach to achieve success. This paper provides a prescriptive framework for successfully implementing digital lean in healthcare.

This study uses a mixed-method approach to achieve three research objectives. Whilst it uses a narrative review to identify the enablers, it uses qualitative thematic analysis techniques to categorise them into factors. The study utilises the delphi method for the thematic grouping of the enablers in the broader groups. The study used an advanced ordinal priority approach (OPA) to prioritise these factors. Finally, the study uses concordance analysis to assess the reliability of group decision-making.

The study found that 20 identified enablers are rooted in practice factors, followed by human resource management (HRM) factors, customer factors, leadership factors and technology factors. These results further counter the myth that technology holds the utmost significance in implementing digital lean in healthcare and found the equal importance of factors related to people, customers, leadership and best practices such as benchmarking, continuous improvement and change management.

The study is the first of its kind, providing the prescriptive framework for implementing digital lean in healthcare. The findings are useful for healthcare professionals and health policymakers.