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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a blockchain-based data capture and transmission system that will collect real-time power consumption data from a household electrical appliance and transfer it securely to a local server for energy analytics such as forecasting.

The data capture system is composed of two current transformer (CT) sensors connected to two different electrical appliances. The CT sensors send the power readings to two Arduino microcontrollers which in turn connect to a Raspberry-Pi for aggregating the data. Blockchain is then enabled onto the Raspberry-Pi through a Java API so that the data are transmitted securely to a server. The server provides real-time visualization of the data as well as prediction using the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and long short term memory (LSTM) algorithms.

The results for the blockchain analysis demonstrate that when the data readings are transmitted in smaller blocks, the security is much greater as compared with blocks of larger size. To assess the accuracy of the prediction algorithms data were collected for a 20 min interval to train the model and the algorithms were evaluated using the sliding window approach. The mean average percentage error (MAPE) was used to assess the accuracy of the algorithms and a MAPE of 1.62% and 1.99% was obtained for the LSTM and MLP algorithms, respectively.

A detailed performance analysis of the blockchain-based transmission model using time complexity, throughput and latency as well as energy forecasting has been performed.

The worldwide imposition of lockdown measures to control the 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has shifted most executive communications with external stakeholders online, resulting in quick responses from stakeholders. This study aims to understand how presentational styles exhibited in online communication induce immediate audience responses and empirically test the effectiveness of reactive impression management tactics.

The authors analyze presentational styles using MP3 files containing executive utterances during earnings call conferences held by S&P 100-listed firms after June 2020, the quarter after the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Using timestamps, the authors link each utterance to a 1-minute interval change in the ask/bid prices of the stocks that occurs a minute after the corresponding utterance begins.

Exhibiting an informational presentation style in earnings calls leads to positive and immediate audience responses. Managers tend to increase their reliance on promotional presentation styles rather than on informational ones when quarterly earnings exceed market forecasts.

Drawing on organizational genre theory, this research identifies the discrepancy between the presentation styles that audiences positively respond to and those that managers tend to exhibit in earnings calls and provides a reactive impression management typology for immediate responses from online audiences.

This study investigates the impact of the fire decay phase on structural damage using the sectional analysis method. The primary objective of this work is to forecast the non-dimensional capacity parameters for the axial and flexural load-carrying capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) sections for heating and the subsequent post-heating phase (decay phase) of the fire.

The sectional analysis method is used to determine the moment and axial capacities. The findings of sectional analysis and heat transfer for the heating stage are initially validated, and the analysis subsequently proceeds to determine the load capacity during the fire’s heating and decay phases by appropriately incorporating non-dimensional sectional and material parameters. The numerical analysis includes four fire curves with different cooling rates and steel percentages.

The study’s findings indicate that the rate at which the cooling process occurs after undergoing heating substantially impacts the axial and flexural capacity. The maximum degradation in axial and flexural capacity occurred in the range of 15–20% for cooling rates of 3 °C/min and 5 °C/min as compared to the capacity obtained at 120 min of heating for all steel percentages. As the fire cooling rate reduced to 1 °C/min, the highest deterioration in axial and flexural capacity reached 48–50% and 42–46%, respectively, in the post-heating stage.

The established non-dimensional parameters for axial and flexural capacity are limited to the analysed section in the study owing to the thermal profile, however, this can be modified depending on the section geometry and fire scenario.

The study primarily focusses on the degradation of axial and flexural capacity at various time intervals during the entire fire exposure, including heating and cooling. The findings obtained showed that following the completion of the fire’s heating phase, the structural capacity continued to decrease over the subsequent post-heating period. It is recommended that structural members' fire resistance designs encompass both the heating and cooling phases of a fire. Since the capacity degradation varies with fire duration, the conventional method is inadequate to design the load capacity for appropriate fire safety. Therefore, it is essential to adopt a performance-based approach while designing structural elements' capacity for the desired fire resistance rating. The proposed technique of using non-dimensional parameters will effectively support predicting the load capacity for required fire resistance.

The fire-resistant requirements for reinforced concrete structures are generally established based on standard fire exposure conditions, which account for the fire growth phase. However, it is important to note that concrete structures can experience internal damage over time during the decay phase of fires, which can be quantitatively determined using the proposed non-dimensional parameter approach.

The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the quality of the owner's estimation for predicting precisely the contract cost at the pre-tendering phase and avoiding future issues that arise through the construction phase.

This paper integrated artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN) and time series (TS) techniques to estimate the ratio of a low bid to the OEC (R) for different size contracts and three types of contracts (building, electric and mechanic) accurately based on 94 contracts from King Saud University. The ANN and DNN models were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean sum square error (MSSE) and root mean sums square error (RMSSE).

The main finding is that the ANN provides high accuracy with MAPE, MSSE and RMSSE a 2.94%, 0.0015 and 0.039, respectively. The DNN's precision was high, with an RMSSE of 0.15 on average.

The owner and consultant are expected to use the study's findings to create more accuracy of the owner's estimate and decrease the difference between the owner's estimate and the lowest submitted offer for better decision-making.

This study fills the knowledge gap by developing an ANN model to handle missing TS data and forecasting the difference between a low bid and an OEC at the pre-tendering phase.

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Road traffic emissions are generally believed to contribute immensely to air pollution, but the effect of road traffic data sets on air quality (AQ) predictions has not been fully investigated. This paper aims to investigate the effects traffic data set have on the performance of machine learning (ML) predictive models in AQ prediction.

To achieve this, the authors have set up an experiment with the control data set having only the AQ data set and meteorological (Met) data set, while the experimental data set is made up of the AQ data set, Met data set and traffic data set. Several ML models (such as extra trees regressor, eXtreme gradient boosting regressor, random forest regressor, K-neighbors regressor and two others) were trained, tested and compared on these individual combinations of data sets to predict the volume of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂ and O₃ in the atmosphere at various times of the day.

The result obtained showed that various ML algorithms react differently to the traffic data set despite generally contributing to the performance improvement of all the ML algorithms considered in this study by at least 20% and an error reduction of at least 18.97%.

This research is limited in terms of the study area, and the result cannot be generalized outside of the UK as some of the inherent conditions may not be similar elsewhere. Additionally, only the ML algorithms commonly used in literature are considered in this research, therefore, leaving out a few other ML algorithms.

This study reinforces the belief that the traffic data set has a significant effect on improving the performance of air pollution ML prediction models. Hence, there is an indication that ML algorithms behave differently when trained with a form of traffic data set in the development of an AQ prediction model. This implies that developers and researchers in AQ prediction need to identify the ML algorithms that behave in their best interest before implementation.

The result of this study will enable researchers to focus more on algorithms of benefit when using traffic data sets in AQ prediction.

Small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) that operate with modest financial investments and commodities face numerous challenges to remain in business. One major philosophy used by SMEs these days is the implementation of lean manufacturing to get solutions for various issues they encounter. But is lean getting sustained over time? The purpose of this research is to design a Sustainable Lean Performance Index (SLPI) to assess the sustainability of lean systems and to pinpoint the variables that might be present as potential lean system inhibitors which hinder the sustainability of leanness.

A multi-level sustainable lean performance model is constructed and presented based on the literature research, field investigation and survey conducted by administering a questionnaire. Fuzzy logic approach is used to analyse the multi-level model.

SLPI for the SMEs is found using fuzzy logic approach. Additionally, the ranking score system is applied to categorise attributes into weak and strong categories. The performance of the current lean system is determined to be “fair” based on the Euclidean distance approach and the SLPI for SMEs.

This work is concentrated only in South India because of the country’s vast geographical area and rich and wide diversity in industrial culture of the nation. Hence, more work can be done incorporating the other parts of the country and can analyse the lean behaviour in a comparative manner.

The generalised sustainable lean model analysed using fuzzy logic identifies the inhibitors and level of performance of SMEs in South India. This can be implemented to find out the level of performance in the SMEs after a deeper study and analysis around the SMEs of the country.

The sustainable assessment of lean parameters in the SMEs of India is found to be very less in literature, and it lacks profundity. The model established in this study assesses the sustainability of the lean methodology adopted in SMEs by considering the lean and sustainability attributes along with enablers like technology, ethics, customer satisfaction and innovation with the aid of fuzzy logic.

Every day, small and big incidents happen all over the world, and given the human, financial and spiritual damage they cause, proper planning should be sought to deal with them so they can be appropriately managed in times of crisis. This study aims to examine humanitarian supply chain models.

A new model is developed to pursue the necessary relations in an optimal way that will minimize human, financial and moral losses. In this developed model, in order to optimize the problem and minimize the amount of human and financial losses, the following subjects have been applied: magnitude of the areas in which an accident may occur as obtained by multiple attribute decision-making methods, the distances between relief centers, the number of available rescuers, the number of rescuers required and the risk level of each patient which is determined using previous data and machine learning (ML) algorithms.

For this purpose, a case study in the east of Tehran has been conducted. According to the results obtained from the algorithms, problem modeling and case study, the accuracy of the proposed model is evaluated very well.

Obtaining each injured person's priority using ML techniques and each area's importance or risk level, besides developing a bi-objective mathematical model and using multiple attribute decision-making methods, make this study unique among very few studies that concern ML in the humanitarian supply chain. Moreover, the findings validate the results and the model's functionality very well.

To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.

The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.

It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.

The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.